It's been a rough quarter for JPMorgan with the overhang of so many different investigations by the government and the specter of paying upwards of $8B to make them all go away. That's not chump change, even for Jamie Dimon's bank. The stock has stagnated as well.
JPMorgan (JPM), is expected to kick off financial earnings when it reports FQ1 2014 earnings on October 11th before the open. The information below is derived from data submitted to the Estimize platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors.
The current Wall Street consensus expectation is for JPM to report $1.28 EPS and $24.175B Revenue while the current Estimize consensus from 16 Buy Side and Independent contributing analysts is $1.39 EPS and $24.442B Revenue. The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market. In this case, we're seeing a decent sized differential between the Estimize and Wall Street numbers compared to previous quarters.
Over the past 4 months the Wall Street consensus trend for EPS has been very negative moving from $1.40 to $1.28 while Wall Street revenue expectations have decreased from $24.494B to $24.175B . The Estimize EPS and Revenue consensus have also been falling throughout the quarter, but have maintained a significant gap.
Over the previous 8 quarters, JPM has beaten the Wall Street consensus for EPS 7 times while beating the Wall Street Revenue consensus 6 times. Over the same time period JPM has beaten the Estimize EPS consensus 5 times and the Estimize Revenue consensus 5 times.
The distribution of estimates published by analysts on Estimize range from $1.28 to $1.50 EPS and $24.115B to $25B Revenues. We are seeing a far smaller range of estimates this quarter than we have in the previous 7 quarters, leading us to believe that the market is extremely confident in solid JPM numbers. The size of the distribution of estimates relative to previous quarters often signals whether or not the market is confident that it has priced in the expected earnings already. A wider distribution signaling the potential for greater volatility post earnings, a smaller vice versa.
The analyst with the highest estimate confidence rating this quarter is Anmikyoso who projects $1.29 EPS and $24.334B Revenue. Estimate confidence ratings are calculated through algorithms developed by our deep quantitative research, which looks at correlations between analyst track records and tendencies as they relate to future accuracy.
The larger than normal downward revisions to both EPS and Revenue estimates from Wall Street are not surprising given expectations that results may have been impacted by JPM having to clean up its act this quarter in association with the many investigations it faces.
Get access to estimates for JPM published by your Buy Side and Independent analyst peers, and register to create your own estimates by heading over to Estimize now.