Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday October 10.
FDA Roulette: Insys (NASDAQ:INSY), Celldex Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CLDX), Isis (ISIS), Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG), Biogen Idec (NASDAQ:BIIB), Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN), Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD), Ariad (NASDAQ:ARIA), Achillion (NASDAQ:ACHN), NPS Pharma (NASDAQ:NPSP)
While Cramer has been a fan of biotechs, it might be time to ring the register on the hottest ones. Insys (INSY), Celldex (CLDX) and Isis (ISIS) have had triple digit gains since Cramer got behind them, and his "four horsemen of biotech": Celgene (CELG), Biogen Idec (BIIB), Regeneron (REGN) and Gilead (GILD) have risen an average of 94%. Unlike the four horsemen, many of these speculative biotechs have only one drug or even no drugs yet. Even if a drug may seem like a blockbuster after two trials, something can come up in the final trial to crush the stock, and in many cases, safety issues can be entirely unexpected. Ariad (ARIA) lost 66% in a single session as its main drug was found to carry the risk of blood clots. Achillion (ACHN) lost half its value when the FDA put a hold on its main drug. NPS Pharma (NPSP), a stock that has risen 302% since Cramer recommended it, received a bullish note from Bank of America, but Cramer thinks it is now too risky, especially since it has only one drug. While he would not necessarily exit these positions, he would ring the register on at least half.
The Dow rose 323 points on optimism over a possible agreement to end the shutdown that has lasted 10 days. President Obama's rhetoric shifted from a concern over Wall Street and bond markets to the plight of the ordinary person who collects social security or serves in the armed forces. However, Cramer warned viewers to enjoy the short covering rally while it lasts, because Washington should cast a shadow over earnings season. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is still suffering from the decline in PCs, and Citrix Systems' (CTXS) management admitted that business has slowed. Banks will be hurt on the slowdown in housing and the spike in mortgage rates. Retailers were doing poorly before the morass in Washington, and The Gap (GPS) reported lackluster news. Chevron (CVX) preannounced poor numbers, and industrials are likely to suffer too.
Cramers took some calls:
Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD): Cramer would ring the register on Acadia. The time that red hot biotechs should be owned for good might be over.
2 Sectors Protected From Washington: Boeing (NYSE:BA), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Pioneer Resources (NYSE:PXD), Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR), Cimarex Energy (NYSE:XEC), Gulfport Energy (NASDAQ:GPOR), Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE:COG), Noble Energy (NYSE:NBL)
While almost every sector may get hit if there is continued conflict in Washington, Cramer noted 2 sectors that tend to decline on macro news, but quickly recover. Aerospace can't be stopped by Washington. Boeing's (BA) Dreamliner is a sought after plane for its energy efficiency and there is a tremendous backlog of orders. The company has a 20 year business plan, and the aerospace cycle is likely to be long-term.
Oil prices did not decline in spite of weakness in Europe and China, areas of the world that have more of an effect on the price of oil than the U.S. Cramer prefers independent oil companies to majors, and his picks in the oil and natural gas sector include: EOG Resources (EOG), Pioneer Resources (PXD), Continental Resources (CLR), Cimarex Energy (XEC), Gulfport Energy (GPOR), Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) and Noble Energy (NBL).
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