Copper, Gold and Coal Poised to Break Out 26 comments
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I see a lot of extended charts out there as we move into what seems like day 82 of consecutive upside, along with some bondfide breakouts. While we should only be so lucky to catch another Potash (POT), one chart that caught my eye last night was Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX). Much like Potash had key resistance at $106, FCX has some at $84.$85... which it sneaked a peak over in the closing moments of the day yesterday. All it will take is some hammering of the US peso and off to the races she *might go*.
Her Peruvian brother in arms, Southern Peru Copper (PCU) is in a similar set up; here the magic number is "low $36s".
Some names from our past, that we have not touched in 15+ months are also in serious breaks - I offer to you Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) [iron ore],Walter Industries (WLT) [coal] and Massey Energy(MEE) [coal]. Mmm... technically Cliff Natural Resources (CLF) is the new name on CLF. These are "double top breakouts" galore.
CLF: $40 was the number here... a quick 10% gained post breakout
WLT: $68 was the number here; not a clean breakout (actually fell back below $68 very quickly on the 1 day we have sold off in the entire month of November, last Thursday)
MEE: Muy bonita! $35 was your key, a quick 15% since that breakout.
So what one hopes when you buy this sort of breakout i.e. Potash yesterday , or potentially a Freeport or Southern Peru Copper if either jump over resistance soon... is that in a week or so those charts will look like the 3 charts above.
As Jim Cramer says there is always a bull market in every asset on Earth other than the US dollar somewhere.
Egregious melt up anyone? +7% on the S&P already in 1/2 of a month.... that annualizes to 170% return. When does the bull trap ever rear its head again?
Author's Disclosure: Long Potash in fund and personal account
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And he's kept a weather eye upon the ever-threatening storm clouds. He isn't entirely a chartist--not by a long shot.
copper&gold: Taseko (TKO.to) and Terrane Metals (TRX.v)
potash: Athabasca Potash (API.to) and Potash One (KCL.to)
met coal: Grand Cache (GCE.to) and Western Coal (WTN.to)
pure gold: Osisko (OSK.to) Avion Gold (AVR.v)
copper/moly: Mercator Minerals (ML.to)
invest in these, and you'll be 100% richer in 6 months.
TraderMark has hundreds of articles here and at Fund My Mutual fund and not all of them about the chart angle. Lots and lots of them are fundamental analysis. Charting has been around many years and it's just a tool in the toolbox.
And no picture? Seriously? If you need to know more about the man just use your right mouse button:
1) Click on Fund My Mutual Fund link at the top of this page.
2) Click on "About Me" at the top of the homepage.
3) Click on the link to the Barron's story
4) Then read the story.
Aw heck that's probably tuff I'll just paste in a paragraph here for you:
"
Trader Mark -- a.k.a. Mark Smith -- had no idea he could grow up to be a professional money manager back when, as a teen, he began investing for family members. But now, at the tender age of 35, armed with an economics/finance degree and a couple of decades of market experience, he's decided to start his own mutual fund.
"
note, its a simulation of course but all data held by 3rd party
simulator.investopedia...
2007 and 2008 results on website, between aug 2007-aug 2008 I was anywhere from #1 to #10 versus the universe of mutual funds but I switched platforms at the beginning of 2009 since I could not employ my full strategy in the old platform I was using.
www.fundmymutualfund.c...
Obviously real world results will be what matters, hopefully that begins in 2010.
p.s. the Barron's article was a mock last name. All will be revealed in prospectus and once I am live. That username was conceived when I was writing a blog in 2007.
Every day for going on 2.5 years I've posted my trades in near real time on the blog while doing them in real time in the platforms I am using held by 3rd party. I am content I am probably one of the most open investors on the internet, anyone can follow me and see every move. I also use both technical and fundamentals,... I am amazed someone makes an instant judgement on 1 post. I have over 5000 on the website.
On Nov 18 11:26 PM PastTense wrote:
> How successful has his mutual fund been?
On Nov 18 09:28 PM XTigerX wrote:
> Fritz,
>
> TraderMark has hundreds of articles here and at Fund My Mutual fund
> and not all of them about the chart angle. Lots and lots of them
> are fundamental analysis. Charting has been around many years and
> it's just a tool in the toolbox.
>
> And no picture? Seriously? If you need to know more about the man
> just use your right mouse button:
>
> 1) Click on Fund My Mutual Fund link at the top of this page.
> 2) Click on "About Me" at the top of the homepage.
> 3) Click on the link to the Barron's story
> 4) Then read the story.
>
> Aw heck that's probably tuff I'll just paste in a paragraph here
> for you:
> "
> Trader Mark -- a.k.a. Mark Smith -- had no idea he could grow up
> to be a professional money manager back when, as a teen, he began
> investing for family members. But now, at the tender age of 35, armed
> with an economics/finance degree and a couple of decades of market
> experience, he's decided to start his own mutual fund.
> "
www.fundmymutualfund.c...
plethora of economic calls in this piece early dec 07 when everyone denied it was possible to have a recession and everything was fine, in retrospect that was the beginning of the recession
www.fundmymutualfund.c...
my call for housing prices same month - Dec 07, deadly accurate when the financial punditry denied it was even possible to have a national price swoon
www.fundmymutualfund.c...
its hard to remember 2007 but many things that now look obvious were being denied by the herd.
On Nov 18 04:52 PM Fitz919 wrote:
> You read way too much into your charts. It's far too narrow a view
> for anyone looking to invest new money today.
SA needs to start editing inaccurate and misleading titles.
"I would never take such a narrow view, when there is so much more information available, which must be factored into investment decisions. The Author calls himself 'Trader Mark'"
&
"The Author is handing out investment advice in his article. ... What he presents in his article is not nearly enough reason to be investing new money in those stocks today."
The author was handing out short-term trading ideas for readers' consideration. Here's what he said. I've capitalized the key portion, which you managed to ignore:
"So what one hopes when you buy this sort of breakout i.e. Potash yesterday, or potentially a Freeport or Southern Peru Copper if either jump over resistance soon... is that IN A WEEK OR SO those charts will look like the 3 charts above."
IOW, he was pointing out what are known as "technical set-ups"--in this case, three stocks poised to make a bullish breakout. He wasn't purporting to offer "investment" advice. There are lots of readers here who aren't interested in the long-term--what they want are stock-tips like these. SeekingAlpha is not just a site for investors; it's also a site for traders (aka speculators) as well. Many articles here are similarly focused on charting and short-term trades. If that's not your cup of tea, who cares?
I have my own titles on my site
FCX is about 90% copper, 10% gold
(some molb thrown in there for good measure)
PCU is not copper? Hmm last I checked the name was Southern Copper (it was once Southern Peru Copper) - I will have to email them to let them know to change the name of their business.
From their website: Southern Copper Corporation produces and sells copper, molybdenum, zinc, silver, lead, and gold worldwide.
CLF is iron, as I wrote in the piece. My gosh someone did not get a huge the past month, years?
On Nov 19 01:10 PM Genesis wrote:
> As for your title, FCX is not "gold," PCU is not "copper," and CLF
> (and other coal mining stocks) are not "coal."
>
> SA needs to start editing inaccurate and misleading titles.
I don't think Mark's intent is to give Cramer fatal stock tips.
I have never looked to Mark for buying and selling advice. He trades often very small portions of a portfolio (eg 0.1% pilot positions, etc),which are not practical for most investors.
I look to the site as a treasure trove of information on trends, views of analysts that Mark gleans and publishes, and moreover, when his interest in certain classes of stocks happens to match mine,when his view on where the economy is going coincides with mine, I take it into consideration when investing. He is certainly right on the ever expanding money supply, but it is up to each reader to decide the consequences, and the "term" of time it will take for it to play out. The dollar may crash, but when? It is down now, but may rise again and burn all the shorters. The long term trend is down, but it is the reader's responsibility to decide how to play it.
So it sounds like many of you are traders, or daytraders. I hope for your sakes that you don't hold positions overnight. That's how traders always get burned.