Price results from services sector stocks calculated as of September 30, 2013 were compared to analyst mean target price projections one year hence. The resulting chart from that data (shown below) featured six stocks exhibiting 16.5% to 48% price upsides. Capital Product Partners LP (CPLP), the Piraeus Greece headquartered shipping firm, with 16.52% showed the lowest upside of those six. World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. (WWE), the Stamford, CT based media and entertainment industry firm, exhibited a 48.39% price upside to lead the sector.
The chart above used one year mean target price set by brokerage analysts matched against September 30 closing price to compare ten sector stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2014 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
This series of articles started applying dog dividend methodology in the fall of 2011 to reveal possible buy opportunities in each of eight major market sectors listed by Yahoo Finance: basic materials (BasMats), consumer goods (ConGo), financials (Fins), healthcare (Heal), industrial goods (IndiGo), services (Svcs), technology (Tec), and utilities (Utes).
This report presumed yield (dividend / price) dividend dog methodology applied to any sector and compared that sector side by side with the Dow industrial index leaders. Below, the Arnold Services Sector top dog selections for September were disclosed step by step:
Dog Metrics Parsed Ten Top Services Stocks
The top ten services sector stocks showing the biggest dividend yields September 30 per Yahoo represented four industries. Top services stock by dividend yield was Navios Maritime Partners (NMM), one of six stocks representing the shipping industry. Other shippers were Capital Product Partners in second place, Ship Finance International (SFL) in fourth, Nordic American Tankers (NAT) in sixth, Knightsbridge Tankers (VLCCF) in seventh, Teekay Offshore Partners (TOO) in tenth. StoneMor Partners represented personal services in third place. Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI) represented staffing and outsourcing services in fifth position. Global Partners LP (GLP) a basic materials wholesaler was eighth. Business services took the ninth slot represented by R.R. Donnelley & Sons (RRD) to complete the services sector top ten dogs.
Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs
The graph below of relative strengths of the top ten services sector dogs by yield as of market close 9/30/2013 compared to those of the Dow industrials index was prepared to show projected annual dividend history from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the ten highest yielding stocks along with the total single share price of those ten stocks with the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividends.
Actionable Conclusion 1: Services Dogs Mixed While Dow Got Bullish
The September services collection of dividend payers ended a bullish price course set since November, 2012. Total single share price dropped 0.8% since July. Aggregate dividend from $10k invested in each of the top ten services stocks, dropped at a rate of 39% since the first of the year. Since July services dogs dividend dropped 4.8%.
For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten dropped 1.5% since August, while aggregate single share price hopped up 6%, ending a bear track since June. Dow dogs increased their overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten by over $198 or 53% in June, compressed to $125 or 33% in August then expanded to $161 or 43% for September.
To quantify the top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential and so were added to the simple high yield "dog" metric used to sniff out bargains.
Actionable Conclusion 2: Wall Street Wizards Expect 14.5% Net Gain from Top 20 Services Dogs Come 2014
Top twenty dogs for the services sector were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of September 30, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock upsides to 2014.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created the data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividends.
Yahoo projected a 3.5% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase by 3.7% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were not applied (n/a).
A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock price movement opposite of market direction.
Actionable Conclusion 3: Analysts Forecast 2014 Services DiviDog Stock Net Gains of 7% to 49.5%
Five of the ten top dividend yielding services dogs were verified as being among the ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy for this sector as graded by Wall St. wizards was 50% accurate.
Ten probable profit generating trades were revealed by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance for 2014:
World Wrestling Entertainment netted $495.01 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from three analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 18% less than the market as a whole.
StoneMor Partners LP (STON) netted $344.21, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from two analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 29% less than the market as a whole.
R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. netted $278.77 based on a mean target price estimate from four analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 77% more than the market as a whole.
Ship Finance International netted $266.99 based on estimates from six analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 20% more than the market as a whole.
Capital Products Partners LP netted $247.84 based on target estimates from six analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 89% more than the market as a whole.
Fly Leasing Limited (FLY) netted $214.66 based on estimates from six analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 43% less than the market as a whole.
Cedar Fair, LP (FUN) netted $116.42, based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 4% less than the market as a whole.
Compass Diversified Holding netted $114.53 based on dividends plus estimates from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 22% more than the market as a whole.
National CineMedia Inc. (NCMI) netted $97.80 based on dividends plus estimates from ten analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 55% less than the market as a whole.
United Online, Inc. (UNTD) netted $70.14, based on dividends plus mean target estimates from three analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 18% more than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was 22.5% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs less broker fees. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 8% more than the market as a whole.
Net gain estimates above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
The stocks listed above are suggested only as decent starting points for your sector dividend stock purchase research process. These are not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.