Korea: Tensions Between North and South

Excerpts from Dr. Enzio von Pfeil's November 19, 2009, appearance on CNBC:

The press conference between the two leaders of North and South Korea earlier today gave an impression of positive relations between the two countries continuing. Do you believe this to be true and what were your impressions of their comments?

• Absolutely: both countries have to be interested in a positive relationship, because S Korea is on N Korea’s doorstep and in China’s front yard!
• Then there is the usual “business as usual” press conference which always is used to put a positive spin on things.

Obama and President Lee Myung-bak also agreed to push for progress on approving a bilateral free trade deal that has yet to be ratified by legislatures in either country two years after it was signed. Do you believe they are making progress in this area?

• I cannot speak for the S Korean legislature.
• But I can say that all politics are local.
• This goes to say that in Obama’s case, his two key political issues are health care and Afghanistan. Everything else is subservient to his achieving his goals on these two issues:
  • Congress wants greater access to the Korean market for Chrysler, Ford and (what’s left of) GM.
  • Obama wants the Senate to create a 2/3 majority in favour of his health care bill AND needs the House and Senate to support his Afghani forays.
• So my guess is that Korea’s FTA ratification is a very minor political (non-)event
• Obama visited Korea because she happens to be in the neighbourhood, not because she is really crucial to US foreign policy

The thorniest issue between Washington and Seoul is their free trade agreement, which analysts say could increase their annual two-way trade by about $20 billion from $83 billion now. "President Obama and I once again confirmed the economic and strategic importance of the free trade agreement between our countries and agreed to work on its progress," Lee said. What are your thoughts on the progress of the FTA going forward?

• See the responses above, please

What do you expect from this political relationship going forward?

• The key and overriding issue has to be what happens to the US-Korean relationship once Our Beloved Leader dies.
• So in terms of succession, Korea is the “Thailand” of Northeast Asia: succession plans are being kept pretty secret.
• With Japan’s political leadership practicing karaoke politics, and China’s wanting a bigger say on the Korean peninsula, S Korea is going to get caught in a Sino-US tug of war.
• The lynch-pin will be the US reducing her support of Taiwan.

Any other related talking points you would like to discuss?

• The over-arching issue is defense, not trade.
• Seems like the N Korean army is more pro-China than pro-US, but S Korea wants the US to have greater influence once N Korea caves in after our Dear Leader’s death.