Historical Bull Market Returns, Duration Suggest More Upside for the Current Rally

Includes: DIA, IOO, NYC, QQQ, SPY
by: Beacon Asset Managers

Tuesday, Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut used a “Chart of the Day” in his Seeking Alpha article–Is This the Beginning of a New Secular Bull Market?–to put historical perspective on the current stock market rally that began in March.

We thought we should list this historical performance in table format in terms of total returns (% Gain), number of days (or rally duration) and annualized returns (% GPA). The tables are listed below.

There have been 34 cyclical bull markets since 1900, not including the current bull. The median gain has been 69.1 percent over 614 days equating to an annualized gain of 36.8 percent.

The current "Monster Rally" has posted a 59.4 percent gain over 253 days, for a currently annualized gain of 96 percent. This places it:

  • Total returns: 22nd out of 34
  • Days: 29th out of 34
  • Annualized gains: 5th out of 34

Comparing it to the last two periods of "Generational Opportunity," 1939 to 1947 and 1974 to 1982, the current "Monster Rally" is ahead in terms of returns, but not in length.

The average bull market statistics in the period 1939 to 1947: Returns 58.5 percent, 681 days and an annualized return of 39.3 percent.

The average bull market statistics in the period 1974 to 1982: Returns 49.7 percent, 423 days and an annualized return of 41.3 percent.

Therefore, despite the market's short-term overbought position, this data would suggest there is ample head room left for further gains over the next 365 days. However, in statistical terms the gains going forward should be more moderate.

Total Returns


Annualized Gains