On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of its Business Outlook Survey for November showing a slight increase in manufacturing activity with the current activity index still indicating expansion with a reading of 16.7.
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Also, today’s results show that any recent parallel to the stagflationary eras of the 70s and early 80 which had given way to a stronger stag-deflationary force, and then mildly inflationary, in-line with the government stimulus now appears to be, at least temporarily, looking marginally double-dipish as latest release shows predictions on future employment flattening.
The following chart shows the latest results of the “current new orders” “current prices paid” and “future employment” components.
The following chart shows these measures during the last stagflationary era seen between 1976 – 1980. Notice the clear divergence of rising prices and falling growth.
