Sirius Trend: Independent Analyst Opinions Turning Positive 211 comments
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By Brandon Matthews
A new research report was issued Wednesday by ConvergEx, which publishes a monthly “Jaywalk Concensus” report on thousands of individual equities, on shares of Sirius XM Radio (SIRI). ConvergEx's clients include asset managers, broker-dealers, corporations, financial intermediaries, hedge funds and retirement plan sponsors. Jaywalk is the independent equity research consultancy of ConvergEx.
“The Jaywalk Consensus metrics service provides an average of all of the independent research providers’ ratings on the given security. By averaging these ratings, investors are given insight into the independent research community’s perspective on individual securities.The research providers who participate in the Jaywalk Consensus (SM) are professional firms that attest to having no investment banking or other potential conflicts that might impact the integrity of their research.”‘
The new report on SIRI is a consensus of 14 independent research providers (IRPs), down from the 15 IRPs that weighed in on Sirius XM Radio shares last month. Although we can see that one IRP in particular has upgraded SIRI from neutral to buy, the data would seem to indicate a trend in which the most bearish analysts have walked away from SIRI as a bearish bet. As these recommendations are made primarily for the benefit of institutional investors including hedge funds, this could be advantageous for those long Sirius XM Radio shares. Although these IRPs in this case fell short of upgrading the stock, not making further sell recommendations is likely to result in a net positive effect, regardless.
In a span of the last four months, 7 analysts have dropped coverage and all held bearish positions on the equity. In the wake of much improved results being reported by Sirius XM Radio, the number of IRPs with very negative or strong sell ratings has dropped from 4 to zero. Those with negative or sell ratings have dropped from three to two, and one other which held a neutral or hold rating has fallen off as well.
Further information reveals that Sirius XM Radio shares are now the best ranked shares within its industry, which would suggest that SIRI is now the “best of breed” compared to other radio companies. Sector investors often use a “best of breed” philosophy when making investment decisions.
Position: Long SIRI
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I find it deplorable that every time we try to pick ourselves up out of the much and mire that the shorts forced in to, we get media jerks trying to pull us all right back in.
Congress would better serve all of us if they regulated the shorts and rumor-mongering media rather then the Fed.
Hopefully, more individual investors find these charts and buy SiriusXM as a long investment.
Rank in Jaywalk Universe
SIRI's consensus score is higher than 74.0% of the Jaywalk Universe.
Now we need this stock to be on the radar of big block long holding institutional investors. With 3.9 Billion shares outstanding we individuals can only buy so much. I for one can't afford a few million shares (If I could I would by the way).
Everything is going so right for this company but it just isn't reaching the huge players.
Brandon I am begging you and your staff to please address the problem with dilution as it keeps this stock in "penny" land. Even above a $1 isn't going to help.
I agree with RAF that it would be great for the R/S to happen when it hits over a $1 but that doesn't seem possible when all this great news in the last month have brought us further from that mark.
I ask you use the time I do not have to find us a way.
Nothing would make me happier to see my opinions on the need for the R/S immediately be squashed. But please no opinion state some solid facts on why. This stock need to stabilize.
I want all of us long holders to get rich. But the fact will remain the rich will get richer and we can only hope for a piece of the pie. The R/S will get the rich in large buying we can't afford and we can ride their coat tails to great returns of scale on our own.
We cannot do this on our own. Sad but true. Don't make me think that those who can afford a miilion shares make a $ .10 return per share which gets us to the $ .74 mark again and then they sell and bring us back to the $ .64 mark.
This is the one trend that has held true since August when the stock hit $ .77. Of course it hasn't always been a $ .10 return but making $25M, $50M isn't so bad for those guys either.
But to answer your question, forever. That is the only real answer you may get. And I hate to be the bearer of bad news, since I have invested maybe more than I should in this stock and remain long.
We as long holders are seriously out gunned by wealthy daytraders and HFT. We need help!
The Board of SiriXM most likely recognizes this problem but need to address it, even if it makes Mel's cheerleading look bad. It has gotten more evident and more relevant since the good news of the 3Q numbers.
Sorry again.
On Nov 20 08:38 AM JPearce wrote:
> Good Article Brandon. I think this is a good time to purchase more
> shares at a ridiculously low stock price. I hope I can get additional
> funds immediately. If not I have purchased plenty of shares to date.
> With a positive cash flow performance in the 4 th quarter how can
> this stock not jump forward. I read all the post and am still dismayed
> how stagnantly low this stock price remains. RAF how long do you
> think our stock will remain in the 0.60+ range.
The R/S will NOT be seen as a sign of weakness but as an invitation. Do not underestimate the brain power within institution investors who are now limited. Some might even be licking their chops waiting to buy.
As you say and I agree SIRIXM speaks for itself and so does its recent 3Q results. Trust me the R/S is best.
You are too smart a guy to think big institutional investors would perceive this move to be a sign of weakness. It is the opposite, they will see this as a favor.
Let SIRIXM numbers speak for themselves instead of being manipulated.
Please see the light. If you think this stock is great what makes you think guys much smarter than us won't think the same.
On Nov 20 08:58 AM R A F wrote:
> It is premature to be thinking of a reverse split with the stock
> in the .60's, now that the company is firing on all cylinders and
> the upside trajectory of improvement for SIRI since March projects
> further improvement into 2010. Despite the impatience of some, SIRI
> has been gradually grinding toward higher levels through successively
> higher lateral bands over the last six months - through the .30's,
> .40's, .50's and .60's - pausing along the way within each of these
> bands to consolidate these improvements. This is typical upside momentum
> and all the positive fundamentals and metrics now being seen in Sirius
> XM should sustain this dominant momentum over the longer term. A
> reverse split might make sense when the stock is well over 1.00,
> to reduce the number of shares outstanding at that time, and to elevate
> the share price into the range from $5 to $10 to broaden appeal for
> those institutions that have restrictions on investments in stocks
> below $5.00. However - this would require a reverse split ratio of
> only 1 for 5 or 1 for 10 - clearly far superior for current investors
> than any ratio that would be called for when the stock is in the
> low .60's (indicating a ratio of 1 for 8 to 16 would be required).
> Moreover - any reverse split at this time would probably be interpreted
> by the markets as acting from nervousness and weakness - a maneuver
> solely influenced by the desire to artificially push the stock above
> 1.00. This perception of nervousness and weakness is clearly not
> warranted for Sirius XM - as virtually all metrics and elements of
> the business plan are now well in place and producing increasingly
> strong results. This is certain to show up in forthcoming financial
> results and guidance (4th Qtr. release due in February) - well before
> any reverse split might be required for Nasdaq requirements (not
> before March 2010, and possibly extended then for another six months).
> So - with all systems go for Sirius XM, and the stock continuing
> to reflect dominant strength (moving gradually higher through successively
> higher lateral bands and then holding well on pullbacks) - there
> is absolutely no need to trade away future potential for some near
> term appeasement of those who are perpetually nervous and impatient.
I never bash you. I even welcome some of your comments,but we must give this stock until the fourth quarter results before we even think of a R/S. February is not that far away. A positive 4 th quarter should put us in position to never even mention a R/S . I purchased my first shares at $2.84. I have been a Siri long member for a long time,so a few more months waiting will not hurt us. Lets give management to the 4 th quarter before we start lashing out at them. (Mel) Management did not create the down fall in the economy or delayed the merger. On both accounts the government let us down not (Mel). I believe for the first time Siri is on the right track to make us long Siri investors a decent profit.
SiriusXM's basic product is just not worth the cost to the intelligent consumer. SiriusXM's programming history has converged to middle of the road programming in the hopes of broadening its base. Paradoxically, this makes the product less valuable (i.e. I can find the same thing they offer at 100 different places).
One can argue and conclude and forecast with financial statements all they want - the bottom line to determining the strength of an investment will be determined by the strength of the product and service and creative flexibility of management.
It may be ignorant of me but I would just like to see some of that new year budget money come SIRIXM's way from insitutional investors. I fear when the time is right the money may not be available, but maybe they will make the money available.
I hope you and RAF prove me paranoid and wrong.
On Nov 20 09:11 AM JPearce wrote:
> Pell
>
> I never bash you. I even welcome some of your comments,but we must
> give this stock until the fourth quarter results before we even think
> of a R/S. February is not that far away. A positive 4 th quarter
> should put us in position to never even mention a R/S . I purchased
> my first shares at $2.84. I have been a Siri long member for a long
> time,so a few more months waiting will not hurt us. Lets give management
> to the 4 th quarter before we start lashing out at them. (Mel) Management
> did not create the down fall in the economy or delayed the merger.
> On both accounts the government let us down not (Mel). I believe
> for the first time Siri is on the right tract to make us long Siri
> investors a decent profit.
I agree with you 100%. What rock did that Dinosaur(Pythagosaur) crawl out from? If you have something positive to say then say it. If you have something negative then say but explain yourself. Tell me where the consumer can get the quality talent that Siri has at over 100 different places.
On Nov 20 09:24 AM pythagosaurus rex wrote:
> no, no, no...
> SiriusXM's basic product is just not worth the cost to the intelligent
> consumer. SiriusXM's programming history has converged to middle
> of the road programming in the hopes of broadening its base. Paradoxically,
> this makes the product less valuable (i.e. I can find the same thing
> they offer at 100 different places).
> One can argue and conclude and forecast with financial statements
> all they want - the bottom line to determining the strength of an
> investment will be determined by the strength of the product and
> service and creative flexibility of management.
On Nov 20 09:48 AM Ricker wrote:
> It is possible that in the near term, SXM will start buying back
> shares. Mel himself mentioned that.
That's way way down the road buddy boy.
Mr. Stupid
On Nov 20 09:48 AM Ricker wrote:
> It is possible that in the near term, SXM will start buying back
> shares. Mel himself mentioned that.
Mr. Stupid
On Nov 20 09:24 AM pythagosaurus rex wrote:
> no, no, no...
> SiriusXM's basic product is just not worth the cost to the intelligent
> consumer. SiriusXM's programming history has converged to middle
> of the road programming in the hopes of broadening its base. Paradoxically,
> this makes the product less valuable (i.e. I can find the same thing
> they offer at 100 different places).
> One can argue and conclude and forecast with financial statements
> all they want - the bottom line to determining the strength of an
> investment will be determined by the strength of the product and
> service and creative flexibility of management.