Whip Unemployment Now? Talk Is Cheap

As we approach the 8 month mark of the stock market rally, it’s reasonable that bulls and bears would be anxious for additional confirmation of their respective investment theses.

It is self evident that bulls have been correct on their outlook for stock prices. What isn’t crystal clear is if we are experiencing a true economic recovery that validates the stock market rally, or if continued job losses and government policies will drag the economy back down.

With a few cracks now showing in the armor of the stock market averages, a lagging Russell 2000 being one, it will pay to scrutinize new data on the economy.

Thanksgiving week has a couple of important indicators according to the

Bloomberg Economic Calendar including the release of the first revision to 3^rd quarter GDP on Tuesday. Later that day we receive Consumer Confidence information which has slipped lately in other measurements. Durable Goods orders and Personal Income & Outlays follow on Wednesday. With a recent 33 hour average work week, one can’t be wildly optimistic about these numbers. But we don’t know yet and that’s why we play the game.

On Tuesday December 1^st the ISM Manufacturing index is released but the “biggies’ that week are about employment. Some attention will be paid to the ADP Employment Report on Wednesday, December 3rd but the most anticipated data for the entire two week period is likely to be the governments Employment Situation report due on Friday, December 4th.

Proving they can also read the economic calendar, and, purely speculation on my part, because they aren’t sure the numbers are going to be very encouraging, the White House announced recently they will hold a “jobs summit” on Thu. Dec. 3.

Some of us remember Whip Inflation Now buttons from the Ford administration. Yes, they actually wore those buttons at press conferences. Or were they inflation summits? Whip Unemployment Now? Talk is still cheap.

Comments

[Dave Wrixon]

I think another down wave as big as the first is likely.

You have to ask whether they are reacting to what has happened or just panicking about what is around the corner? And if so which of these scenarios is worst?

2009 Nov 22 09:22 AM

[Kolk Abuk]

Infrastructure. Let it go and you can blow-off the sort of economic recovery needed to have an independent American financial sector and a stock market that is grounded instead of flying around like a kite. The payback to the USG depends on an increased tax base and that rests on infrastructure investments for the short, mid and long term.

2009 Nov 23 12:29 AM

[Kolk Abuk]

BTW on unemployment, if you haven't seen this time elapse map at the Business Insider, it is worth checking out:

cohort11.americanobser...

2009 Nov 23 04:45 AM