Roger Nusbaum submits: So the market made a run to the May high and might be failing, although a day and a half may be too little time to draw a conclusion.
This is something I have been writing about for a while. I did not invent the notion; it was more of a school of thought that made sense to me at the start of the summer. It seemed like more people were publicly bearish in June and more people were publicly bullish all through August and September, no shock.
There are, and have been, serious issues confronting higher stock prices. In the last couple of days it seems like these have come to the fore a little bit, and the yield curve inversion has been getting larger. So either stocks are taking a breather or rolling over. Being consistent, I think a rolling over is more likely, but we will see.
Being consistent is an important thing in managing money, yours or someone else's. From the start of the summer I have been consistent about wanting to maintain a slightly more defensive position than normal. At the outset I said that I did not expect to capture all of a move higher while positioned that way, and despite a lament or two along the way, I have stuck to my knitting as the things that concerned me seem to have deteriorated a tad more, not doomsday just a little worse.
The big concept to tie into this post is that investing requires patience as measured by longer time frames than just days.