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Noah Education Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NED)

F1Q10 Earnings Call

November 23, 2009 9:00 am ET

Executives

Dong Xu - Chairman and CEO

Jerry He - Executive Vice President and CFO

Dora Li - VP of Financing, Controller

Analysts

Ella Ji – Oppenheimer

Ingrid Yin – Brean Murray

Adele Mao – OLP Global

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Welcome to the Noah Education First Quarter Fiscal Year 2010 financial results conference call. Joining the conference today are Mr. Dong Xu, Chairman and CEO, Mr. Jerry He, Executive Vice President and CFO, and Ms. Dora Li, VP of Financing, Controller.

Before the US markets open this morning, Noah issued a press release announcing its first quarter fiscal 2010 financial results, which is available on the company’s IR webpage at www.ir.noahedu.com.cn. This call is also being broadcast live over the internet.

Before management’s presentation, I would like to refer to the Safe Harbor statement in connection with today’s conference call. This call may contain forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including certain expectations and goals, which are subject to numerous assumptions, and risks. Forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results or achievements implied by such forward looking statements.

The company’s actual results could differ materially from those contained in the risk factor section of company’s final prospectus or recent filings filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Unless required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

I would now like to turn the call over to Noah’s Chairman and CEO, Mr. Dong Xu.

Dong Xu - (Interpreted)

Noah is off to a very solid start for the year, establishing a strong foundation for our fiscal 2010 performance. We exceeded our revenue guidance and increased our operating income by 98% over the same quarter last year, thanks to our successful sales efforts, coupled with our stringent financial controls. Our balance sheet is strong and we are well positioned to execute our strategy during the remainder of the year.

ELP revenue continued to grow, led by our newer KLD product. Market demand for these products remain strong and as we have said before we expect KLD to be the key growth engine for our core ELP product segment going forward. As DLD products reach maturity and sales begin to moderate we expect KLD products to compensate for any decrease in DLD revenue. We will continue to strengthen our R&D effort in order to produce best in class ELP products and expand our product line.

The integration of Little New Star continues to progress well and Jerry will discuss the specifics of the integration with you in a little while. From a strategic perspective, Little New Star represents a very important first step in our efforts to expand in the education services market.

As you’ve probably seen, we announced some changes to the management team earlier this month. This was done to enable key team members to focus on their strengths and better equip the team as a whole to capitalize on the wealth of growth opportunities that Noah is poised to take advantage of.

First, I would like to formally welcome Benguo Tang to the role of President and Chief Operating Officer. Mr. Tang is one of Noah’s founders and has been instrumental in the company’s success to date. He is the perfect candidate to drive our day to day operations as he has a deep knowledge of the business, the industry, and of course our strategy.

Mr. Jerry He has also been appointed to the role of Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, driving the company’s corporate and strategic development. Jerry will also maintain responsibility for the fiscal planning and investor relations functions.

Dora Li will continue to play an integral role in our finance team as Noah’s Vice President of Finance and Controller. Dora will lead Noah’s efforts to continually strengthen our internal financial controls and accounting processes.

I am pleased with our progress so far this year. As we move forward through 2010 we remain focused on making continuous financial and operational improvements to our business that will ultimately drive both growth and profitability.

Thank you again for joining us today and I will now turn the call over to Dora to review our numbers for the quarter.

Dora Li

Beginning on slide four. Here you will see an overview of the key line items of our income statement. We delivered a solid performance in the first quarter of 2010. Our net revenue increased by 17.8% year over year to RMB238.2 million or $34.8 million exceeding our previously stated guidance and driven primarily by strong KLD sales. Gross profit, operating income and net income all increased year over year. I’ll talk about each of these in a little more detail.

On slide six we show some of the drivers behind our revenue growth. Our ELP business contributed RMB225.2 million in revenue, 11.4% higher then the first quarter of last year. Total ELP sales volume also up growing by 3%. Education service business contributed RMB13.0 million to total revenue.

On slide seven we give you some more detail on our ELP sales. As mentioned, KLD was the primary revenue growth driver for first quarter. KLD sales increased by 285.4% year over year to RMB106.1 million and we expect to see continued strong growth in this segment. For the first time KLD contributed the majority of ELP revenue at 47.1%. The chart shows how we consistently grew ELP net revenue since 2005 as well as the year over year comparison to first quarter of 2009.

Our gross profit increased year over year by 16.1% to RMB117.5 million. This represents a gross margin of 49.3% compared to 50.1% in first quarter 2009. This slight decrease was due to the change in product mix as KLD which contributed the greatest RMB amount to the revenue has slightly lower margins then our DLD products.

DLD also sold some ASG pressure during this quarter. In face, as KLD continued to increase as a portion of the product mix. We will continue to see some downward pressure on overall gross margin.

Moving on to slide nine. We remain focused on one of our key priorities, making our business more efficient. Our operating expenses as a percentage of total revenue was down year over year to 41.2% from 47.4% in the prior year period. Our operating income was up nearly 98% year over year to RMB32.5 million. Our operating margin rose to 13.7% from 8.1%.

On slide 10 we have extracted the key line items from our income statement. We have reviewed most of this on our press release already. The company reported net income RMB37.8 million or $5.5 million for the first quarter of 2010. Basic earnings per share and diluted earnings per share were RMB0.99 and RMB0.96 respectively. This compares with net income of RMB35.8 million which included RMB10.9 million in derivatives and foreign exchange gains and basic earnings per share and diluted earnings per share of RMB0.94 and RMB0.93 for year ago quarter.

Net income excluding share based compensation expenses for the first quarter ended September 30, 2009, was RMB40.5 million or $5.9 million or RMB1.06 and RMB1.03 per basic and diluted shares. For the non-GAAP and GAAP reconciliation tables please refer to our press release.

On slide 11 we give balance sheet highlights. As of September 30, 2009, Noah had cash and cash equivalents, short term bank deposit and investments of RMB828.2 million or $121.3 million. This compares with cash and cash equivalents, short term bank deposit and investments of RMB776.1 million as of June 30, 2009. We have a very solid balance sheet with ample cash and low debt. This positions us well to further drive business growth going forward.

Now I will turn the call over to Jerry who will talk more about our operational progress and strategy in more detail.

Jerry He

I would like to give you a little bit more detail on our performance for the quarter and update you on some of our operational and strategic initiatives.

On slide 13 you will see some additional detail on our ELP business. As expected KLD is now accounting for the majority of our ELP revenue at roughly 47%. We saw a significant increase of 193% in sales volume, along with a 285% increase in revenue for KLD. ALC’s were also up. We expect to see continued rapid growth in KLD sales in the coming quarters. As a consequence we will see overall ELP margin come down a bit as KLD generated slightly lower margins then our DLD product.

With respect to our DLD we remain the industry leader despite sales and volume declines. Although this product has reached maturity we do not expect declines in the coming quarters to be as pronounced as the economy recovers. This is because important of the recent declines we had attributed to consumer trading down to cheaper models. However, we are confident that the better quality of our products will enable us to win back some of those customers as economic conditions improve.

E-dictionaries remained stable and we are exploring sales opportunities outside of China.

On slide 14 you will see more detail on the development of our Education Services business. With respect to Little New Star we have nearly completed the integration of all the corporate and administrative functions such as finance, HR and IT. We have brought new talent to the Little New Star management team to strengthen the brand and leverage Noah’s sales and marketing expertise to increase brand recognition for the Little New Star brand.

We were also capitalized on synergies between our ELP business and the Education Services. For example, we have already designed, manufactured, and introduced a new electronic teaching device or ETD to Little New Star schools as of September. This product has been well received and is a great example of how we can combine the expertise and know-how from the two businesses to generate a new revenue stream.

We will also take advantage of cross promotional opportunities such as promoting our sponsorship of Franklin’s International Spelling Contest at Little New Star schools. We continue to develop new creative programs and seek partnership opportunities in schools throughout China and that will help better serve the student population. We are excited about those opportunities and the entry that Little New Star gives us into the education services segment and will be the focus of our acquisitions and the growth.

Slide 15 shows two important recent corporate developments. In October we announced a strategic investment in Franklin Electronic Publishers. The strategic rationale behind this is four fold:

We get exclusive sponsorship of SpellEvent in China which is an opportunity to promote a broadened recognition of Noah and Little New Star brands.

We will have the right of first offer as the preferred original design manufacturer in China for Franklin’s products.

The deal will allow us to enhance our capabilities and generate cost savings through joint R&D efforts.

We will gain access to international markets through Franklin’s distribution channel

In addition, Jim Simons has agreed to invest $2 million approximately 1% in Noah Stock at a price of $5.47 which represents approximately 20% premium to the market price at the time of discussion.

As Mr. Xu mentioned, we announced some changes to the management team earlier this month. We have detailed those changes here.

Now that I have given you an update on our operations I would like talk a little bit more about our growth strategy. Let’s first look at slide 17 which shows growth trends for the last several quarters. After experiencing some difficulties at the start of the financial crisis in first quarter fiscal 2009 our operating income growth is back on track. For the trailing 12 months our revenue grew 16.6% year over year, operating income increased by 61.9% year over year thanks to the solid execution of our growth strategy and the cost control.

On slide 18 we have outlined the key components of our strategy for you. First, we will continue to leverage our strong content development capabilities to maximize opportunities in the fast growing education market in China. As we continue to develop our ELP products and expand our reach, our projection is that we will attain at least 15% organic EPS growth year over year from ELP business.

We are confident that the strength of our product line and nationwide distribution network will enable us to take advantage of opportunities presented by this huge market. In addition to growing organically we will selectively pursue acquisitions in education services market. We expect to add an additional 10% EPS growth from acquisitions, bringing our total projected EPS growth to 25% year over year.

The education service industry offers high profit margins and greater tax flow and provides cross selling and marketing opportunities for our existing business. We operate in a very fragmented market with a lot of small players this yields some great integration opportunities for companies with a strong brand and financial strength like Noah.

Because acquisitions are such a key component of our growth strategy we are putting together a dedicated team to assess M&A opportunities. One existing area of our business where I believe we can make substantial improvements and help drive growth is with our online platform. We currently have about 700,000 registered users of our online platform and given the size of our existing customer base alone this is clearly room for growth substantially if we put in the necessary efforts.

Our online platforms offers many benefits to us including improved customer relations. Additional distribution channels, strong advertising in marketing channel and the incremental revenue sources from online services.

We will also prudently expand into international markets. For instance, we are planning to launch Chinese Learning Device in overseas markets. I want to emphasize that we will do this only in certain circumstances and/or which it makes sense. The bulk of our business will remain in China.

Finally, as we have said before we aim to make constant improvements in our operational efficiency and cover additional synergies across our different business segments. We understand the importance of closely monitoring the efficiency of our business during what we expect to be a time of rapidly growth. This is why we have enlisted Dora’s substantial experience in leadership to focus on such initiatives.

Now let’s look at our financial guidance for second quarter fiscal 2010 and the fiscal year 2010 on slide 19. We expect our revenue for second quarter fiscal 2010 be a range of RMB151-159 million representing 11.6% to 17.5% year over year growth. We expect our ELP business to contribute RMB146-152 million revenue and Little New Star to contribute RMB5-7 million. We anticipate basic EPS to be in the range of RMB0.39 to 0.45.

For full fiscal year 2010 we expect total revenue to be in the range of RMB824-855 million which represents a 22.8% to 27.4% year over year growth. We expect our ELP to contribute RMB786-812 million and Education Services business to contribute RMB38-43 million. Basic EPS is expected to be in the range of RMB3.00 to 3.20 which is equivalent to $0.44 to $0.47 per share based on the current exchange rate.

To conclude, we have talked a lot today about our growth opportunities in the future. What I also want to highlight is that we have built a strong track record for successfully executing our strategic objectives. We have been profitable every year since our inception and we have successfully emerged from the economic downturn and we continue to grow we are also becoming more efficient. We are committed to maintaining this success and creating value for our shareholders.

Now we would be happy to take your questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Ella Ji – Oppenheimer

Ella Ji – Oppenheimer

Your full year revenue guidance indicates an 18% to 22% year over year growth in your ELP segment and that this is above the year over year growth in the first quarter which is seasonally strongest quarter. This indicates that you are expecting an accelerated growth in the ELP segment in the second half of fiscal year ’10. I want to clarify where are you seeing the growth and what assumptions have you factored in, in your full year guidance?

Jerry He

Let’s break down the ELP business to the three categories. The DLD business we actually experienced a significant decline over the last few quarters. We talked about two primary reasons why the micro economic environment customers face tend to trade down in bad economy and secondly that’s an area we can improve, according to operational part we brought to the market a couple products that’s not a performance we expected.

However, going forward there are a few things we are going to change in the DLD business. First of all we will introduce a low end product in the DLD category to compete with our customers. We also will introduce additional high end products in the DLD category. Once the economy recovers we expect the declining DLD will not be as pronounced we experienced in the last few quarters.

In addition, we will bring to the market a new category of different products in the third quarter 2010. The three products we are going to bring; the first one is a Student Network that is a high end product with high gross margin also high ISP. The second, we will have Talk in Talk system introduced to the market. The third we have a season learning system introduced in the market.

In addition to new products, we also ratcheted up our marketing campaign. We will advertise on primetime CCTV. With better products and the integrated marketing approach we expect DLD business to recover significantly.

Secondly let’s talk about KLD. KLD as we have seen in the numbers that almost tripled year over year and have grown significantly over the last fiscal year is now our number one contributor to our revenue. We expect that to continue. For fiscal 2010 we expect revenue from KLD will likely double.

Third, E-dictionary that’s a mature category we do not expect much growth there. Most likely it will remain flat. With that, in the second half of 2010 we expect the ELP business will grow much faster then the first half of 2010.

Ella Ji – Oppenheimer

You expect new products in the DLD and as well when the economy rebounds you expect both to be potential growth strategies for accelerated growth in second half of fiscal year ’10.

Jerry He

That’s correct.

Ella Ji – Oppenheimer

Also related to your full year EPS guidance, I see that the growth is lower then your full year revenue guidance. I understand one of the reasons is due to the inflated share counts. I’m wondering what net income growth are you expecting for the full year? Also in terms of the margins do you anticipate your cost of controls to be able to more then offset the margin pressure from shifting to lower margin KLD products?

Jerry He

EPS growth is not as big as the revenue that’s not surprising because if you look at last year you break the EPS down to two components; one is of course the operating income, another part is the derivative income. Last year we actually had a significant gains in derivatives and foreign exchanges. We took those numbers out EPS growth is actually quite in line with the revenue growth.

Ella Ji – Oppenheimer

How about the margins, are you expecting operating margin to perform better year over year, meaning your cost control more then offset lower margin pressure from KLD?

Jerry He

The growth margin percentage wise will be lower but since the revenue grew significantly, operating expenses were will not grow as fast as the revenue which basically the to benefit you get it from the economy of scale, that’s one. Automatically you would see the growth operating income would be higher then the growth of revenue. Also with stringent control were put in place and we have hired a financial analyst and budget manager recently to dedicate to that task. We believe we can improve the operational efficiency to offset the decline in gross margin.

Ella Ji – Oppenheimer

Related to the New Star Business I’m wondering if you have the last year’s numbers so that you can give us what’s the year over year growth in Little New Star in this fiscal 1Q10.

Jerry He

Last year’s number, I can give you a general number but not in great detail. The revenue for last year is approximately RMB30 million. The reason I’m not giving you the details is because their accounting is very different, Chinese based their accounting is very different from the US GAAP but we’ve made a lot of adjustments that we may not want to disclose.

Ella Ji – Oppenheimer

You said last year its around RMB30 million so basically this year is in line with last year?

Jerry He

No, that’s not 30 and we are talking about a RMB38-43 for this year.

Ella Ji – Oppenheimer

I was actually asking for the fiscal 1Q10 this quarter’s year over year growth.

Jerry He

Because of their accounting treatment is very different, its not really comparable.

Ella Ji – Oppenheimer

Related to your long term EPS growth, you are expecting 15% of organic EPS from ELP and 10% from the acquisitions. This is like guidance growth for the next year or for the next three to five years, can you give us a timeline for that? Also, can you break out the price versus the volume growth for your EPS growth from the ELP segment?

Jerry He

The 15% organic and 10% from acquisitions that’s not just for the fiscal ’10 that’s for the next five years. The second you asked about the ELP cost breakdown?

Ella Ji – Oppenheimer

The ELP growth you said its 15% organic growth, can you break down what’s pricing versus what’s volume?

Jerry He

We actually do not break it down that way. The 15% we have is actually very conservative. We can have the break down for you for the next year but going forward we continue to bring in new products into the marketplace we can’t give you the number for the next five years.

Operator

Your next question comes from Ingrid Yin – Brean Murray

Ingrid Yin – Brean Murray

You talked about introducing the Electronic Teaching Device to the Little New Star Schools. Could you give us guidance where would you categorize this ETD product into the revenue, do you put it in ELP segment or combined with LNS?

Jerry He

We put that in Little New Star.

Ingrid Yin – Brean Murray

The guidance you gave RMB38-43 million for the full year could you give a breakdown how much is it from the Services or how much is from the ETD?

Dora Li

I can give you what we have so far for the first quarter what the percentage for each major category and the Little New Star business. For the first quarter the teaching material takes about 75% of total Little New Star revenue and tuition fee is about 18% and the remaining is coming from the franchise fee. Basically we are expecting the teaching material will remain as the first revenue contributor for the Little New Star business.

Ingrid Yin – Brean Murray

You talked about KLD is taking a bigger percentage of the total revenue ELP segment but as the volume goes up do you expect margin expansion in the KLD going forward?

Jerry He

That’s actually why we have seen in the past a few quarters, we see both volume and ASD for KLD went up in the last few quarters. Going forward for the next quarter or second half of 2010 we expect that to continue to be the trend. Gross margin in ALC will go up.

Ingrid Yin – Brean Murray

Congratulations on the strategic investment with Franklin. About initiatives with them can you give a guideline in terms of when it will start to contribute to 2010 revenue?

Jerry He

The deal is expected to close in January 2010. Immediately we should be able to see at the end of third quarter fiscal 2010 we should be able to see some accrual of the dividend income that will be in the categories for investment income, Preferred A and B. In terms of the ODM business since we signed the deal we already got owners from them that’s what’s effecting in 2010 that’s actually already factored in for the remaining year. We expect in 2010 the ODM business, the business we made devices for overseas clients that almost were double in fiscal 2010.

Ingrid Yin – Brean Murray

Its very interesting that you have seen some macro impact on the DLD segment but on the KLD still growing much stronger. Do you view this as KLD is a segment that is less sensitive to the economic pressure?

Jerry He

I don’t see that way because those have been in the same category as the discretional spending supplemental education. I think one of the reasons KLD is growing so fast for us because we just reintroduced the KLD category in August 2008 so year over year comparisons is kind of unfair because you have very small base to begin with. However, the category is growing very fast versus DLD because DLD has the been on the market for a few years, KLD as a category is relatively new.

Its meeting the unmet needs for the customers. In the past when we don’t have KLD younger kids say six years old that kid may not have anything to buy. If they are going to buy they probably buy DLD which is a little bit more sophisticated for them. We have KLD they can go ahead and buy DLD that’s more suitable for their age. Its growing so fast I think mostly because it was a void space before.

Operator

Your next question comes from Adele Mao – OLP Global

Adele Mao – OLP Global

Could you comment on the overall inventory level in the DLD, KLD industry? Generally just how many days of inventory you are distributors are seeing or they have?

Dora Li

Our inventory end of September 30, our inventory was slightly down versus the June 30 ending. At end of September 30 our inventory includes about 1.37 million from our traditional business which is slightly down versus the previous quarter and also including another 4.9 million inventory we bought from Little New Star. Actually we have controlled our inventory level down at end of September 30 and so we’ll continue to control our inventory for the coming quarter.

Adele Mao – OLP Global

This is the inventory level for Noah. Could you comment on what the inventory level overall for the DLD, KLD industry and maybe at your distributors in the channel? Has been out of Noah but has not reached market yet.

Dora Li

We don’t have statistics or number count for the inventory at whatever the distributors so we cannot comment on their inventory count.

Jerry He

We don’t really have numbers from distributors but we probably give you some kind of anecdotal color to that. For the KLD based on our experience in products NE260 and NE280 was out of stock. The distributor came to us we don’t even have enough product to sell. I would have to guess that they don’t have much either.

Adele Mao – OLP Global

How much visibility do you currently have for the DLD and KLD order coming from your distributors? Do you see a couple weeks or do you see four weeks?

Dora Li

You mean our sales forecast from our distributor?

Adele Mao – OLP Global

Right, correct. I want to gauge an idea basically how much visibility do you see into the quarter and into the full year?

Dora Li

Pretty much we get the orders from our distributors on a weekly basis. We have a clear visible for our backorders.

Adele Mao – OLP Global

Could you provide us with an update with respect to the KLD competitive landscape. Whom do you see as your biggest competitors in this product series and how does Noah’s product differentiate from your competitors?

Jerry He

Our biggest competitor is BBK they have been heavily promoting the category, that’s probably one of the reasons we consider a competitor benefit from the growing of the type if you will. Their top line product is actually very comparable to our top line products in terms of quality. We are better in terms of accountancy and functionality but they probably have a better branding and marketing initiative.

You asked me what I heard from the industry is about over RMB100 million. We apparently do not match that up that I think they have associated their product with the popular cartoon in China. Overall they are better in terms of branding, we are better in terms of quality and accountability. They started the category earlier then us so in terms of market shares they are number one in that category.

Adele Mao – OLP Global

That was my second question related to that. I recall that when Noah started to book KLD revenue I think you guys talked about targeting 20% market share. Now that I think the KLD product has been on the market for over a year I was wondering where Noah stands in terms of your market share target, how fast the overall KLD market is growing, and how do you see yourselves stacking up against your competition in terms of market share?

Jerry He

We don’t have the third party numbers, we just gather industry numbers. We estimate our market share at this point in time is around 10% or so. Even with sales triple or double whatever we have we still only have 10%. There is a lot of room for us to grow. We strive to make 20% market share in fiscal 2010.

Adele Mao – OLP Global

The company issued a special dividend about a year ago. Now that you guys still have over $3.00 in cash per share are you considering any potential dividend payout at this point in time?

Jerry He

Not in the near future because we do see a lot of opportunities in Education Service area. I mentioned quite a few times that we are actually looking for targets and we are in discussion with some parties which of course I can’t disclose more then that at this point in time. We do intend to deploy the cash in acquisitions to grow the business. That’s why we raised the money at ITL4 and that’s what we intend to do.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back to Noah Education management for closing comments.

Jerry He

Thank you very much for joining us today and I look forward to seeing you again next time. Thank you very much for your question. Happy Holidays!

Operator

This concludes our presentation. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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