Best Black Friday Forecast in 5 Years

Number of insert ad pages in Thanksgiving Boston Globe, 2008-2009

(Click for a larger version)

Some people watch football on Thanksgiving Day. Because of my prior lives as a marketing consultant and analyst, I do something different: I count newspaper ad insert pages.

Ad circular inserts on Black Friday provide us with interesting information. For one thing, they provide some insight into the advertising budgets of retailers. But more important than that, they provide a good view into the overall economy going into the biggest retail season of the year. If the economy is really bad, retailers don’t advertise much; on the other hand, if the economy is improving, retailers will spend more money on advertising resulting in more pages of advertising. In past years, the results from the Black Friday ad count have been fairly well correlated with actual holiday shopping results.

The ground rules for my counting are that I count only the circulars in the West edition of the Boston Globe newspaper, since those are most representative of the advertising for Black Friday. I convert all ads into 8.5×11 inch, single-sided equivalents. That means that if a retailer puts in an oversized 11×17 inch, double sided ad, that counts as 4 pages (An 11×17 page contains the area of two 8.5×11 pages, and the double sided printing doubles that).

As you can see in the graph that begins this post, this years count provided encouraging news about the New England economy, namely that:

• The Globe had 700 ad pages, the highest number since I started counting in 2005. Previous counts I have done were 412 in 2005, 636 in 2006, and 512 in 2007.
• Ads are up 17% over 2008, but more in some areas. Department stores had the most pages this year as every year, weighing in with a whopping 478 pages compared with 392 last year. Hardware stores boasted the largest percentage increase over 2008, with 42% more pages than the 28 they had in 2008. Surprisingly, electronics and furniture had slightly lower counts than 2008, although both categories have very small absolute counts.

There’s not much further insight here; clearly this is a single indirect measurement in a single retail market. But at the very least, we can certainly say this: the Globe actually delivered more ads (and presumably more ad revenue) this year than last. If a newspaper—a media category that most analysts claim is dying from Anywhere digital competition—can gain advertising this year over last, perhaps in the words of Monty Python, they aren’t dead yet. And by inference, we can claim that the economy really is starting to recover.

Happy Black Friday!

Comments

[a fat panda]

Here in Atlanta, we may see a weak Black Friday. My wife left here at 9, and just returned with 2 bags of doorbusters. She saw no lines, and said that nothing was sold out. She use to work retail, and described the malls she hit as dead.

2009 Nov 27 11:47 AM

[logicalthought]

Every year on "black Friday" the TV commentators talk about "how jammed the parking lots are" (including last year, which was awful). What counts is SPENDING, so think of it this way: If each person spends just 5% less than last year (as in: "Hmmm, maybe I'll buy a $95 sweater instead of a $100 one, and a $19 toy instead of a $20 one"), the results will be considered to be AWFUL.

2009 Nov 27 12:47 PM

[somecatchyphrase]

Read a report somewhere this morning (already forget where) that media were manipulating camera angles and herding people together so as to make malls appear more crowded.

2009 Nov 27 12:58 PM

[April May]

Personal experiences on Black Friday:
prices on just about everything from clothing to small appliances have been reduced to that of MANY years ago.

Large plasma TV price over $3000 three years ago. Today's price: $899 (same brand).

Small freezer was $300 ten years ago. Today's similar model is selling for $309.

Our stores are packed, parking lots full too, but whether or not people are spending waits to be seen.

2009 Nov 28 03:08 PM

[bindlepete]

Nothing personal Carl but you are blowing smoke.

The volume of add pages has little to do with the season or the amount of free cash the retialers have at hand. The newspapers are in deep organic and will provide easy credit for any potential payer.

The availibility of advertising space bespeaks to desparaion.

2009 Nov 29 06:44 PM