Weekly Forecast for November 30 and December 7, 2009

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of November 30
November 30
Chicago PMI - November	53.0	54.2	53.0
December 1
Construction Spending - October	-0.4%	0.8	-0.4
Pending Home Sales - October	110.7	110.1	109.7
ISM (Mfg) - November	55.0	55.7	55.0
ISM (Mfg) - Prices	65.8	65.0	65.0
Auto Sales* - November	10.30M	10.46	10.52
Car Sales	5.40	5.51
Truck Sales	4.90	4.96
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
December 2
ADP Employment - November	-165K	-203	-160
December 3
Initial Unemployment Claims	475K	466	485
ISM Services - November	51.1	50.6	51.5
ISM Prices	55.0	53.0
ISM Business Activity	55.5	55.2	55.4
Productivity - Q3(r)	8.8%	9.5	8.6
Unit Labor Costs	-4.5	-5.2	-4.2
December 4
Nonfarm Payrolls - November	-160K	-190	-130
Manufacturing	-50	-61	-46
Unemployment	10.2%	10.2	10.2
Average Workweek	33.0Hrs	33.0	33.1
Averagate Hourly Earnings	0.2%	0.3	0.2
Factory Orders - October	-0.2%	0.9	0.0
Durable Goods Orders	-0.5	1.4
Nondurable Goods Orders	-0.1	0.6
Week of December 7
December 7
Consumer Credit - October	-$8.0B	-14.8	-9.5
December 9
Wholesale Inventories - October	-0.5%	-0.9	-0.5
December 10
Interntional Trade - October	-$38.0B	-36.5	-36.1
December 11
Retail Sales - November	0.3%	1.4	0.4
Retail Sales, ex autos	0.4	0.2	0.5
Retail Sales, autos and parts	0.0	8.3
Export Prices - November	0.4%	0.3	0.3
Import Prices - November	0.8%	0.7	1.0
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Dec (p)	68.2	67.4	68.2
Business Inventories - October	-0.5%	-1.5	-0.2

Prior observation is the last official release figure. For data where the the figure to be released is a revision of a prior preliminary estimate, as is sometimes the case with GDP, productivity or Michigan consumer sentiment, the prior observation is the preliminary release figure; where no official preliminary figure has been released, the prior observation is the release figure for the previous period.

Comments

[LCACM]

chris coonan "25% of all US Children are on Fooo d Stamps right now, and one in eight adults"
The Food Stamps are paid for by the US government, who in turn is borrowing the money from the Chinese Communists via US Treasuries. In other words 25% of US children and 1 in 8 adults are indirectly being fed by the Chinese Communists. And don't forget they also manage to feed 1.3 billion Chinese.
US is forever boasting about Human Rights and conveniently forgets Human Responsibilities. This line of thinking has brought the country to this sad state that it is depending on the Chinese to feed a percentage of it's children and adults. What makes it even stranger is that US population density is a third that of China and a tenth that of India. If these populous countries can feed their own populace, US families should definitely be in a position to earn sufficient amounts to feed themselves.
It is high time for the US citizens to reexamine naive US Government policies, that make it impossible for US citizens to feed themselves.

2009 Nov 30 09:00 PM