While Ford's (NYSE:F) stock hasn't gone anywhere this quarter, monthly auto sales numbers have been incredible. The auto industry has come roaring back in the last few quarters and seems to be peaking here as pent up demand is unleashed.
Ford, is expected to report FQ3 2013 earnings on October 24th before the open. The information below is derived from data submitted to the Estimize platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors. You can share your own estimates as well by visiting this site.
The current Wall Street consensus expectation is for F to report 37c EPS and $33.981B Revenue while the current Estimize consensus from 16 Buy Side and Independent contributing analysts is 39c EPS and $34.030B Revenue. The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market. In this case, we're seeing a decent sized differential between the Estimize and Wall Street numbers compared to previous quarters
Over the past 4 months the Wall Street consensus trend for EPS has risen from 35c to 37c while Wall Street revenue expectations have decreased from $34.072B to $34.050B. The Estimize EPS and Revenue consensus have surged throughout the quarter with EPS going from 37c to 39c and Revenue going from $32.975B to $34.030B.
Over the previous 8 quarters, F has beaten the Wall Street consensus for EPS 6 times while beating the Wall Street Revenue consensus all 8 times. Over the same time period F has beaten the Estimize EPS consensus 3 times and the Estimize Revenue consensus 6 times.
The distribution of estimates published by analysts on Estimize range from 36c to 47c EPS and $32.950B to $35.205B Revenues. We're seeing a wider than normal distribution of estimates this quarter for F than normal. The size of the distribution of estimates relative to previous quarters often signals whether or not the market is confident that it has priced in the expected earnings already. A wider distribution signaling the potential for greater volatility post earnings, a smaller vice versa.
The analyst with the highest estimate confidence rating this quarter is Nils1975 who projects 41c EPS and $35.205B Revenue. Estimate confidence ratings are calculated through algorithms developed by our deep quantitative research which looks at correlations between analyst track records and tendencies as they relate to future accuracy.
Given the steep increase in the Estimize EPS consensus recently and the company's recent history of beating expectations on the bottom line, we expect a very strong report out of Ford. Likewise, even with strong performance from the company the last few quarters the stock has stalled, though it is currently trading at the top end of its range. This may be the event that changes that.