Cramer's Mad Money - The Most Despised Bull Market in History (12/2/09)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV program, Wednesday December 2.

The Most Despised Bull Market: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)

"This is the most despised bull market in history," said Cramer about the upsurge greeted by skepticism. The Street has been cynical of Amazon's (AMZN) success, but Cramer says this is unjust. Even with a 243% increase in stock price since last year, Cramer thinks the online retail giant can go higher and uses history as a guide; between 1998 and 1999 the stock rose from $6.75 to $104.56, a gain of 1,449%. With Amazon growing at a rate of 25%, the 30% target for growth is not far off. The expected growth of $3 per share is much too conservative, and Cramer thinks that, given the dramatic increase in traffic, the figure should be closer to $3.60. Cramer says a price target of $216 is not unrealistic for Amazon.

Suburban Propane (NYSE:SPH), FerrellGas Partners (NYSE:FGP), Inergy (NRGY), Amerigas Partners (NYSE:APU)

Cramer discussed the importance of stealth bull markets, and praised those who did their homework and are already invested in propane stocks. Cramer likes the propane space mainly because these are high dividend stocks with an average yield of 8.4%. While propane stocks have already risen 33% off July lows, Cramer says there is still significant upside for the stocks, since wholesale prices for propane are expected to rise 7% in December '09 and 9% in 2010; retail prices will rise even higher.

Cramer analyzed four propane companies: Suburban Propane, (SPH), FerrellGas Partners (FGP), Inergy (NRGY) and Amerigas (APU). The criteria included size and safety of the dividend, amount of debt, and regional exposure. His top pick was Inergy, but for those who want a pure play on propane, AmeriGas is the best stock.

The Top Holiday Stock: Best Buy (NYSE:BBY), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Nokia (NYSE:NOK), Target (NYSE:TGT), Kohl's (NYSE:KSS), J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP), Corning (NYSE:GLW)

To find the ideal holiday stock, Cramer suggests looking for clues among top-selling products. Nokia (NOK) predicted sales for cellphones will be up 10% in 2010, Apple's (OTC:APPL) iPhone is as popular as ever. Corning (GLW) reports demand is up for the glass used in large screen TVs and Microsoft Windows 7 should fuel demand for computers. The best buy for the holidays is the store that sells all of these products and more, namely, Best Buy (BBY). Cramer predicts the company will report a huge upside on its December 15th earnings report and sales on Black Friday were strong enough to streamline inventory going into the holiday season.

Best Buy is a mere point off its 52-week high, trades at 13.6 times 2011 earnings, and has a 12.4% growth rate. Cramer thinks Best Buy is cheaper than Target (TGT), JC Penney (JCP), and Kohl's (KSS) and would buy Best Buy ahead of its earnings report.

Shame on Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), with stock Dole Foods (NYSE:DOLE)

Cramer sharply criticized Goldman Sachs (GS) for giving a neutral rating on Dole Foods (DOLE) just a few weeks after touting its IPO. It was bad enough that the bank slapped on a convertible-bond offering on Dole right before its IPO. "How could Goldman love Dole at $12.50 a share, only to hate it at $11.90 a month later?" he asked. Goldman Sachs cited Dole's higher input costs and problems with visibility, but Cramer exclaimed "They didn't know this a month ago!?"


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