Results for S&P 500 Index members from Yahoo Finance tallied as of market closing prices October 17 were compared with analyst mean target gain results one year hence. The resulting chart of that data below showcased five stocks flashing 8% to 19% price upsides. PPL Corporation (NYSE:PPL) the Allentown, PA headquartered electric utility with 8.15% showed the lowest upside of those five. Health Care REIT (NYSE:HCN) a Toledo, OH based health care REIT financial firm displayed 8.71% upside. FirstEnergy Corp. (NYSE:FE) the Akron, OH based electric utility sparked 8.8%. CenturyLink (NYSE:CTL) in telecom service technology from Monroe, LA topped 12%. Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE:KMI) the Houston based oil & gas pipeline basic materials firm exhibited a near 19% price upside to lead those five.
The chart above used the one-year mean target price set by brokerage analysts matched against October 17 closing price to compare ten S&P 500 index stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2014 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
This article reports the S&P 500 Index as of the above date by projecting gain results one year hence. Seeking Alpha reader requests prompted this series of index-specific articles reporting dividend yield plus price upside results for this baker's dozen of stock indices: Dow 30; Barron's 15 Gems; S&P 500; S&P Aristocrats; Russell 1000; NASDAQ 100; NYSE International 100; Dividend Achievers; Champions; Contenders; Challengers; Carnevale's Power 25; Carnevale's Super 29; Russell 2000.
Investor Glossary summarized dividend dog methodology thus: "...[I]nvented to find the 10 stocks of the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average with the highest yield (dividend / price) and invest equally in each, [t]he Dow dividend theory also requires that you repeat this process once a year.
Below, the Arnold S&P 500 Index top dog selections for October were disclosed step by step.
Dog Metrics Sorted S&P 500 Stocks by Yield
McGraw Hill Finance, publisher of the Dow Jones S&P 500 Index states:
"The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large cap U.S. equities. There is over USD 5.58 trillion benchmarked to the index, with index assets comprising approximately USD 1.3 trillion of this total. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization."
Only three of nine sectors placed top dogs in this index for October. Top dog Windstream Corp. (NASDAQ:WIN) was one of four technology firms in the top ten. The other technology firms were Frontier Communications (NASDAQ:FTR), second; CenturyLink Inc., third; AT&T, Inc. (NYSE:T), sixth. Four Utilities filled the four, five, eight, and nine slots: FirstEnergy Corp., Pepco Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POM), TECO Energy (NYSE:TE), and Entergy Corporation (NYSE:ETR). Altria Group, Inc. (GTPP) in sixth place was one of two consumer goods firms. The other consumer goods dog, Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE:RAI) in tenth place completed the S&P 500 top ten dogs.
Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs
Relative strengths of the top ten S&P 500 dogs by yield as of market close 10/17/2013 compared to those of the Dow are shown in the graphs and charts below. Projected annual dividend history from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividend.
Actionable Conclusion (1): S&P 500 Dogs Chased Bulls as Dow Dogs Scrambled
The October S&P 500 collection of dividend payers showed mixed results as price continued an upward course resumed in May rising 2% after September. Aggregate dividend from $1k invested in each ($10k total) for the top ten S&P 500 stocks dropped at a 2% rate in that period to confirm the bullish course.
For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, projected annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten Dow dogs dropped just 0.6% since September, while aggregate single share price swooned 11%, ending a brief bullish track. The Dow dogs overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten shrank. The overhang was $198 or 53% in June, then shrunk to $153 or 41% in July, compressed to $125 or 33% in August then expanded to $161 or 43% for September, then shrank down to $111 or 30% for October.
To quantify the top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential and was added to the simple high yield "dog" metric used to sniff out bargains.
Actionable Conclusion (2): Wall St. Wizards Wand 8.9% Net Gain from Top 20 S&P 500 Dogs In 2014
Top twenty dogs from the S&P 500 index were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of October 17, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The share number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one-year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividends.
Yahoo projected a 5% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase over 5% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid estimate.
A beta (risk) ranking for each analyst rated stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock's movement opposed to market direction.
Actionable Conclusion (3): Analysts' Top Ten S&P 500 Dogs to Net 9.5% to 21.5% By October 2014
Six of the top yielding dividend S&P 500 dogs were verified as top gainers for the coming year by analyst 1-year target prices. So this month the dog strategy as graded by Wall Street wizards is 60% accurate.
Ten probable profit-generating trades revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2014 were:
Kinder Morgan, Inc. netted $215.21 based on a mean target price estimate from fourteen analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 36% less than the market as a whole.
CenturyLink netted $168.12 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from sixteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 46% less than the market as a whole.
Windstream Corporation netted $149.77, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate by thirteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 9% less than the market as a whole.
FirstEnergy Corporation netted $126.02 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from sixteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 95% less than the market as a whole.
Health Care REIT netted $114.31 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from thirteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 33% less than the market as a whole.
Pepco Holdings netted $141.18 based on estimates from twelve analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 25% less than the market as a whole.
PPL Corporation netted $110.03 based on estimates from sixteen analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 84% less than the market as a whole.
Frontier Communications netted $107.52 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from thirteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 19% less than the market as a whole.
AT&T, Inc. netted $98.75 based on estimates from twenty-four analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 72% less than the market as a whole.
Southern Company (NYSE:SO) netted $94.69 based on a mean target price estimate from sixteen analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 5% opposite the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was about 13% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 57% less than the market as a whole.
Net gain estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
The stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your index dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Disclosure: I am long T, VZ, PFE, MSFT, MCD, INTC, GE. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.