Results from the NYSE International 100 Index tallied by Yahoo Finance as of market closing prices October 18 were compared with analyst mean target gain results one year hence. The resulting chart of that data featured three top stocks exhibiting 20% to 24% price upsides. TransCanada Corp. (TRP) the Calgary based gas pipeline utility gushed 20.17%. PetroChina Co. Ltd. (PTR) a major integrated oil & gas basic materials firm in Beijing topped 23%. Vale S.A. (VALE) the Rio de Janeiro based industrial metals & minerals basic materials firm exhibited a near 24% price upside to lead those three. The remaining seven index leaders by price upside sported 5.4% to 12.3% upsides.
The chart above used one year mean target price set by brokerage analysts multiplied by the number of shares in a $1k investment to compare ten NYSE International 100 Index stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2014 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
This article reported results of the NYSE International 100 Index as one of fourteen in a series of index-specific articles devoted to dividend yield and price upside results. Seeking Alpha reader requests prompted this series of index-specific articles reporting dividend yield plus price upside results for these fourteen stock indices: Dow 30; Barron's 15 Gems; S&P 500; S&P Aristocrats; Russell 1000; NASDAQ 100; NYSE International 100; Dividend Achievers; Champions; Contenders; Challengers; Carnevale's Power 25; Carnevale's Super 29; Russell 2000.
This report presumed yield (dividend / price) dividend dog methodology applied to any index and compared that index side by side with the Dow. Below, are the Arnold NYSE International 100 Index top dog selections for October were disclosed step by step.
Dog Metrics Screened NYSE International 100 Stocks by Yield
The NYSE states, "The NYSE International100 Index tracks the largest 100 non-U.S. common stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. As of year-end 2004, the companies represented have a combined market capitalization (float-adjusted) of $4.3 trillion. Together they represent over one-quarter of the total market capitalization of all common stocks listed on the NYSE."
As of October 18, the top of ten NYSE International dogs by yield was one of two technology firms, VimpelCom Ltd. (VIP). BCE, Inc. (BCE), the other technology firm, placed seventh. A single utility, National Grid PLC (NGG) placed second. A single healthcare firm AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) was fourth. The lone financial firm, Westpac Banking Corp. (WBK), placed sixth. Five basic materials firms, led by Ecopetrol SA (EC) in third place, and Vale S.A. in fifth, completed the NYSE International top ten: BP PLC (BP); ENI S.p.A.(E); Royal Dutch Shell PLC B (RDS-B) placed eighth through tenth. In all, just five of nine sectors were represented on this International list.
Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs
A graph below compares the relative strengths of the top ten NYSE International 100 dogs by yield as of market close 10/18/2013 with those of the Dow. Historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividend.
Actionable Conclusion (1): NYSE International 100 Dogs & Dow Dogs Muddled
NYSE International 100 top dividend payers have dithered since August. In just the past month NYSE International 100 top ten dog dividend from $10k invested as $1k in each of the top dogs dropped 3% while aggregate single share price dropped 7%.
For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, projected annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten Dow dogs dropped just 0.6% since September, while aggregate single share price swooned 11%, ending a brief bullish track. The Dow dogs overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten shrank. The overhang was $198 or 53% in June, then shrunk to $153 or 41% in July, compressed to $125 or 33% in August then expanded to $161 or 43% for September, then shrank down to $111 or 30% for October.
To quantify the top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential and was added to the simple high yield "dog" metric used to dig out bargains.
Actionable Conclusion (2): Wall St. Wizards Conjured 10.5% Net Gain from Top 20 NYSE International 100 Dogs For 2014
Top twenty dogs from the NYSE International 100 index were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of October 18, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividends.
Yahoo projected a 5% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase over 7% in the coming year. Note that price line was graphed to exceed dividend this coming year which forecast an overbought condition for the index. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid estimate.
A beta (risk) ranking for each analyst rated stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stocks movement opposite of market direction.
Actionable Conclusion (3): Analysts Foresee 10 NYSE International 100 DiviDogs to Net 8.6% to 26.8% By October 2014
Four of the ten top yielding dividend NYSE International 100 dogs were verified as top gainers for the coming year by analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy as graded by wall street wizards is 40% accurate.
Ten probable profit generating trades from $10k invested as $1k in each stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data for 2014 were:
Vale S.A. netted $268.64 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from twenty-two analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 38% greater than the market as a whole.
PetroChina Co. Ltd. netted $255.30 based on a mean target price estimate from three analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 8% less than the market as a whole.
TransCanada Corp. netted $221.55, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate by eight analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 35% less than the market as a whole.
EnCana Corp. (ECA) netted $147.23 based on estimates from twenty-four analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 35% more than the market as a whole.
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) netted $136.12 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from six analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 12% less than the market as a whole.
BP PLC netted $130.24 based on a mean target price estimate from seven analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 56% more than the market as a whole.
Canadian Imperial Bank (CM) netted $111.70 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from six analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 59% less than the market as a whole.
GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK) netted $100.71 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from four analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% less than the market as a whole.
ENI S.p.A. netted $91.09 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from three analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 71% more than the market as a whole.
BCE, Inc. netted $86.13, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from twelve analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 58% less than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was 13.5% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 1% less than the market as a whole.
The gains noted above did not factor-in any tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source of "dividends" from any investment.
The stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your index dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.