I once went on a tour of the Gettysburg battlefield where I heard that famous Civil War battle described as the high water mark of the Confederacy. Never again would the American South have the strength to invade the American North. Although it took almost two more years of war, the Confederacy was in almost constant retreat from then on.
The UN Climate Control Conference in Copenhagen may similarly be seen by historians as the high water mark of the man-made global warming movement. The conference just began on December 7, and world leaders won't arrive until just before the summit ends on December 18, yet defeat is in the air. According to a commentary by David Corn in Politics Daily:
Though the Copenhagen session was initially conceived as the gathering where a hard-and-fast treaty would be crafted, there is now no chance of that happening.... .
So why will the treaty fail? On December 8, the Obama administration's deputy special climate change envoy Jonathan Pershing blamed the developing nations:
Pershing repeatedly noted that the major developing nations, such as China, India, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, have to offer more -- that is, be willing to commit to significant reductions and compliance measures. Those nations, he asserted, will be responsible for 97 percent of the future growth in emissions. Without concessions from them, he said, the U.S. Congress would balk at whatever deal comes out of Copenhagen....
But there is another reason as well. The earth hasn't been warming for the last decade, and the man-made global warming scientists were recently discredited by the Climategate e-mails. The world's people are increasingly realizing that the science behind the hoped-for treaty is far from settled.
The Obama administration is now pushing a non-binding agreement as an alternative to the treaty. The developed countries would voluntarily agree to give away their manufacturing industries (i.e., reduce their carbon emissions), while the developing countries would voluntarily agree to accept those manufacturing industries (i.e., grow their carbon emissions).
Beliieve it or not, this deal would be better than the treaty. The developed countries had offered to give about $167 billion per year by 2020 if the developing countries would agree to reduce their carbon emissions. But as part of the voluntary agreement the developed countries will only give them $10 billion per year (according to a leaked memo), and the developing countries will only have to slow the growth of their carbon emissions..
The world's scientists will continue to work out the real causes of climate change. Physicists have been making rapid progress. It looks right now like cosmic rays and solar activity are the main determinants, with carbon dioxide playing a minor role, if any. Once the cosmic ray/solar activity theory has been more completely worked out, it should be possible to determine whether or not the beneficial effects of carbon dioxide upon plant life outweigh its possibly negative effects upon the climate.
The American people can begin to breathe a sigh of relief. A huge threat to our prosperity appears to be in retreat. But even though an important battle may soon be won, the war will be far from over.
Disclosure: No positions
