Seeking Alpha
Currencies, macro, fixed income
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

by Stuart McPhee

GBP/USD for Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Over the last couple of weeks the GBP/USD has moved well from the key level at 1.60 back up to the significant resistance level at 1.6250, only again for this level to stand tall and fend off buyers over the last few days. To start last week, the pound consolidated in a narrow range just above 1.6150 before making its run again to 1.6250. Throughout September the pound rallied well and surged higher to move back up strongly through numerous levels, which was punctuated by a push through to its highest level for the year just above 1.6250 several weeks ago.

A week ago, however, it was easing back towards 1.60 and 1.59 where it established a narrow trading range between before the recent surge higher. For a period of about a week it was relying on support from 1.5950 which allowed it some time to consolidate a little. Several weeks ago it first found solid support from the 1.5950 level which helped it move well up to the 1.6250 level. It did stall around 1.59 to 1.5950 for a few days a few weeks ago before clearing this area of congestion. About a month ago it fell down to a two week low near 1.54 before rallying back towards 1.5550. The week before it did well to maintain its level above the key 1.56 level, and in the process moving to a new two month high above 1.57, which has now been surpassed by the recent high. It immediately retreated strongly but continued to receive solid support from the 1.56 level before closing below at the end of that week.

Back in the middle of August, the pound surged higher to through the resistance level at 1.56 to a then two month high around 1.5650, before spending the next few days consolidating and trading within a narrow range around 1.5650, receiving support from the key 1.56 level. A couple of months ago the resistance level at 1.54 was proving to be quite solid, and once it broke through the pound surged higher to a new seven week high near 1.56 in a solid 48 hour period run. In the week leading up to this the pound had recovered strongly and returned to the previous resistance level at 1.54 after undoing some of its good work the week earlier and falling away sharply from the resistance level at 1.54 back down to around 1.5150 and a two week low. A few weeks ago the 1.54 resistance level stood firm and the pound fell away heavily, however the 1.51 support level proved decisive and helped the pound rally strongly.

Earlier in July, after having done very little for about a week, the GBP/USD started to move and surge higher and move through the 1.52 and 1.53 levels to the one month high above 1.54. Prior to the move higher, it moved very little as it found solid support at 1.51 and traded within a narrow range above this level. It established a trading range in between 1.51 and 1.52 after it took a breather from its excitement just prior when it experienced a strong surge higher moving back to within reach of the 1.52 level from below 1.49, all in 24 hours. About a month ago it did well to climb off the canvas and move back above 1.49 and towards 1.50 again before seeing the pound reverse and head back down below 1.49 to reach a new multi-year low near 1.48. It experienced sharp falls moving from 1.53 down to the key long term level of 1.50 and then through 1.49. That movement saw it resume its already well established medium term down trend from the second half of June and move it to a four month low.

There was positive news out of the UK on Friday, as Preliminary GDP posted a strong gain of 0.8%, up from 0.6% the month before. The reading matched market expectations, and this is likely to increase speculation about whether the BOE might raise interest rates in the near future, despite repeated assurances from BOE Governor Mark Carney that he has no intention of doing so before 2015. However, if key indicators continue to improve, Carney and his colleagues may have to seriously consider slicing rates sooner rather than later.

(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

GBP/USD October 28 at 22:55 GMT 1.6134 H: 1.6208 L: 1.6124

GBP/USD Technical

S3S2S1R1R2R3
1.61301.59501.58001.6250------

During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the GBP/USD is just easing back towards the short term support level at 1.6130 after falling sharply from above 1.62. Since the middle of June the pound has fallen very strongly from the resistance level at 1.57 back down towards the long term key level at 1.50 and is now enjoying a solid resurgence over the last couple of months moving back to above 1.62 and its highest point for the year. Current range: Just above 1.6130.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.6130, 1.5950 and 1.5800.

• Above: 1.6250.

OANDA's Open Position Ratios

(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the GBP/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)

The GBP/USD long positions ratio has moved back up towards 30% as the GBP/USD eased away from the resistance level at 1.6250. Trader sentiment remains heavily in favour of short positions.

Economic Releases

  • 23:30 (Mon) JP Unemployment (Sep)
  • 23:50 (Mon) JP Retail Sales (Sep)
  • 09:30 UK M4 Money Supply (Sep)
  • 09:30 UK BoE - Mortgage Approvals (Sep)
  • 09:30 UK BoE - Net Consumer Credit (Sep)
  • 09:30 UK BoE - Secured Lending (Sep)
  • 12:30 CA Industrial product price index (Sep)
  • 12:30 CA Raw Materials Price Index (Sep)
  • 13:00 US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price (Aug)
  • 14:00 US Consumer Confidence (Oct)

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Source: GBP/USD Eases Back Under 1.6150