Adobe (ADBE) is scheduled to release Q4 earnings this Tuesday, December 15, after the market closes.
Average analyst estimates for the software maker are $.37/share in EPS and $752.54 million in Revenue. Twelve analysts track the stock with one upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days.
Last quarter Adobe beat average analysts expectations by 0.01/shr or 2.9%, 0.35/shr vs. 0.34/shr.
I always find this a tough period, waiting to see if the company is going to meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates. One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release.
In the case of Adobe, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Adobe to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.
I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release. (piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment). (Click chart to enlarge)
Sentiment for ADBE Source Piqqem
The above chart shows Adobe’s sentiment growing by 16 pts from the beginning of the quarter to today, with a small decrease of 3 pts from the end of the quarter thru today. This last indicator has historically been the most accurate indicator regarding an earnings surprise, both upside and downside.
On the Piqqem scale, Adobe’s sentiment rating of 28.73 indicates solid quality and this is considered a buy. Only Adobe knows their actual results, but their current sentiment points to Adobe meeting or exceeding earnings estimates on Wednesday.
Disclosure: No Positions