By Andrew Willis
Spend 10 minutes with Jim Balsillie, and you’ll understand that the Research in Motion (RIMM) executive’s ambition is nothing short of revolutionary: He wants the BlackBerry to supplant the personal computer.
For most of Mr. Balsillie’s 17 years at RIM, this goal seemed a distant dream. But Morgan Stanley is out with a report Tuesday that says the BlackBerry and its wireless peers will knock off PCs in the next five years.
The Wall Street investment bank asked its full slate of tech, media and telecom analysts to pool their thoughts on a “Mobile Internet” report. The result runs to 659 PowerPoint slide and 414 pages of text. Here are the highpoints, all of which vindicate Mr. Ballsillie’s vision, and set out the challenges facing RIM and other incumbents in a sector that shows little respect for its elders:
- Material wealth creation / destruction should surpass earlier computing cycles. The mobile Internet cycle, the 5th cycle in 50 years, is just starting. Winners in each cycle often create more market capitalization than in the last. New winners emerge, some incumbents survive - or thrive - while many past winners falter.
- The mobile Internet is ramping faster than desktop Internet did, and we believe more users may connect to the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within 5 years.
- Five IP-based products / services are growing / converging and providing the underpinnings for dramatic growth in mobile Internet usage - 3G adoption + social networking + video + VoIP + impressive mobile devices.
- Apple (AAPL) + Facebook platforms serving to raise the bar for how users connect / communicate - their respective ramps in user and developer engagement may be unprecedented.
- Decade-plus Internet usage / monetization ramps for mobile Internet in Japan plus desktop Internet in developed markets provide roadmaps for global ramp and monetization.
- Massive mobile data growth is driving transitions for carriers and equipment providers.
- Emerging markets have material potential for mobile Internet user growth. Low penetration of fixed-line telephone and already vibrant mobile value-added services mean that for many EM users and SMEs, the Internet will be mobile.
