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Hovde's short thesis presentation on GGP (GGWPQ.PK) had 2009E NOI at 2.2B. This is based on annualizing Q3 number. In a business that is clearly seasonal (as shown below from 2008 actuals) annualizing based on one quarter seems absurd.

Barring Q4 2009 NOI estimates, below are the actual NOI (before adjusting for lease termination fee, tenant allowance,etc) numbers DIRECTLY out of 10-Q and 10-K filings.

Note: (Q4 2009 decline of 3% is my conservative forecast. Retail sales have increased in November.)

Period
2009
2008
decline
Q4
682,811
703,929
(0.03)
my forecast
Q3
582,183
622,487
(0.06)
Q2
615,816
629,070
(0.02)
Q1
608,580
634,543
(0.04)
Year
2,489,390
2,590,029

As can be seen, Q4 Net OI was a materially higher number compared to other quarters, due to the seasonality of business.

Let's assume the adjustments that have been taken to NOI (on page 30 of the presentation) are appropriate for NOI from a valuation sense. The adjustments made the NOI to be 0.937 Reported NOI.

Using same adjustment factor of 0.937 for the 2009 NOI (includes Q4 2009 NOI forecast), adjusted NOI comes to 2.33 Bil. This is not close to 2.2 Bil used in Hovde's presentation and the difference at Cap Rate of 7.5% increases valuation by 1.73 Bil or a whopping $5.54 per share!!

I would like to hear comments if I have posted anything inaccurate here.

Disclosure: I am long on GGP and own common shares of GGP.

Source: General Growth Properties: Fact Checking Hovde's NOI numbers