Time for Bullishness?

If you are bullish now, but were not bullish last March, you are the guy or girl in the room saying "who's the mark?" and may be in for a rude surprise. If you were bullish at the March bottom, perhaps you have got your stuff together and I am just a cranky contrarian jumping the gun.

Every instinct I had in November '08 and March '09 told me that deflationist and bearish were the wrong way to be. The current situation with the long bond yield rising muddies up the waters today, so until it is resolved, the commodity and inflation trade must be considered ongoing... along with perhaps the stock market dragging its tired ass higher as part of what is now becoming the anti-treasury trade.

But any bull reading anything decent, reputable or sound into any of this is just a slave to convention, and believe me, there are many highly educated people in finance. That could prove to be their undoing. Talk of risk premiums in bonds and the like is just so much bromide now because we are off the charts, Treasury is talking about somehow taking us further off the charts (despite the mini rebellion in the t-bond) and stock market longs are populated by the momentum herd, trend followers and increasingly, a weary public.

It is funny; an early subscriber of NFTRH cancelled last summer as he had come across some information that the markets were going to crash in the Fall. It would be lights out so he no longer needed the newsletter. I should have known right then and there that the rally would extend longer than I thought likely. It is amazing how easily people fall for bear fairy stories in the age of inflation policy a go-go, which works constantly against the deflation/bear market argument.

Well right now, it is bull fairy stories being constructed by the troubadours on Wall Street and the massive and self-interested financial services industry the world over, not to mention the financial media that touts the agenda 24/7. The risk to the bullish stance - at least for interim hard correction - remains untenable. Real contrarians endure and await opportunity, whether it be next week or in the spring (repeat: I only need one or two good trades a year, I only need...).

Meanwhile, the gold-silver ratio remains subdued but in bullish pretense. Dat be bearish for everything else my friends, if it turns up. A rising GSR would signal the draining of the swamp despite the best efforts of policy on crack.



Disclosure: No positions mentioned, but not long any conventional stocks or markets and moderately short a few of them.