It looks like he isn't going to deliver. I must have been a more naughty trader than nice.
But in my defence, over the past 14 months I
- Positioned myself for a bull rally in October, December and finally February.
- Ignored the Permabears and other market skeptics.
- Bought stocks and REITs on and off, most of the year.
- Made my portfolio grow double digits.
Alas, the Grinch that stole the Fertilizer Mergers seems to be winning out and I fear Santa will pass my house by, my stocking left empty except for trade commission bills.
But I am still hopeful.
Next year I see the following developments in Q1:
- Stronger USD, lower gold and commodity prices as US economic growth slows.
- 5 to 7% US stock market correction.
- US fertilizer prices for Spring 2010 delivery already seeing their peaks.
- Corn and bean prices decline due to bumper crops and stalled RFS mandates.
- Agrium is unable to redeem the CF poison pill or influence its Board of Directors.
- Terra finds a second bidder or decides to take an enhanced CF offer.
Finally, I see a fat paycheque for all the fertilizer company managements, their bankers, lawyers and finally, investors and journalists, for having the patience to ride out what has been a long 12 months of intrigue, high drama, and disappointment in the fertilizer.
Have a Happy Holiday and a Prosperous New Year!
Disclosure: long TRA