Much Ado About Tweeting, But S&P Weak Into 2014

 |  Includes: SPY, TWTR
by: Danny Riley

Today is Twitter’s (NYSE:TWTR) big day. When the company raised its public offering price to between $23 and $25, the value of the company jumped to $15.5 billion, and it could end up the largest IPO by an Internet company in the U.S. and the largest IPO since Facebook.


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The S&P has been up so much one has to wonder what the catalyst could be to knock it back down. We all know that when the taper drums start beating again the S&P will get soft. We also know the debt ceiling and another government shutdown won’t help the bulls’ cause either.

While the market may still be going up now, we don’t expect it to remain that way in the beginning of 2014. Several weeks ago I asked, with the S&P up 26% from this time last year, if the Twitter IPO could mark a short-term top in the markets. With so much expectation built in, what if the stock rallies too much and then sells off on the first day?

The Street has such high expectations it’s not a question of whether the stock go up, it’s will it go up too much? I remember when Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) went public and I remember the catastrophe the Nasdaq trading glitch caused during the Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) IPO and how the stock sold off. They say the Twitter IPO could fall in between Google and Facebook for the size of the public offering.

The Asian markets closed mostly lower and Europe is mixed. This morning’s economic calendar includes 7 economic release, a 3-, 6- and 52-month note and bond announcement and Jeremy Stein and William Dudley speaking from the Fed.

As you can see by the chart, Twitter’s IPO could come in above the $1.9 billion Google earned. We use Twitter and have nearly 16,000 followers but I am just not sure where the company will be in, say, 10 or 15 years. Will people still be tweeting? Is it a fad or is it for real? Our guess is that after the IPO, the stock sells off and that it will take a full year or more to get a real feeling for the direction of the company. There is an old saying: “When everyone’s buying it’s time to start selling.” Today that saying will be put to the test.

Our view: The markets are going to be preoccupied by Twitter today. We could be 100% wrong, the IPO goes great and the S&P rallies again. The overall price action in the S&P has been “back and filling” and making higher lows and could easily go ripping higher, but it will still have to face Friday’s jobs numbers and we just don’t think the S&P is going to like that very much. Additionally, next week is the November options expiration, so we will also have to be looking for the Pit Bull’s Thursday/Friday low before the expiration. Our view is to buy the early weakness and sell rallies.

As always, keep an eye on the 10-handle rule and please use stops when trading futures and options.

  • In Asia, 8 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp. -0.48%, Hang Seng -0.68%, Nikkei -0.76%.
  • In Europe, 11 of 12 markets are trading higher: DAX +1.30%, FTSE +0.12%.
  • Morning headline: “Twitter IPO to Be Bigger Than Google ”
  • Total volume: 1.32 million ESZ and 6.3k SPZ traded
  • Economic calendar: Chain store sales, Gallup US Payroll to Population, Federal Reserve Gov. Jeremy Stein speech at Chicago Fed’s International Banking Conference on shadow banking, GDP, jobless claims, EIA natural gas report, New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley speech to the Global Economic Policy Forum in New York, consumer credit, Fed balance sheet and money supply
  • E-mini S&P (Sep) 1760.25-5.25 - -0.30%
  • Crude 97.80-1.42 - -1.43%
  • Shanghai Composite 0.00N/A - N/A
  • Hang Seng 22881.029-155.91 - -0.68%
  • Nikkei 225 14228.44-108.869 - -0.76%
  • DAX 9103.28+62.41 - +0.69%
  • FTSE 100 6708.49-33.20 - -0.49%
  • Euro 1.338

 Much ado about tweeting, but S&P weak into 2014