Cramer's Mad Money - Can't Be So Bullish on Google (1/13/10)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Wednesday January 13.

Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), ArcSight (ARST)

The potential pullout of Google (GOOG) from China is worrying, because the company would be deprived of a market of 380 million for its Android smartphone. Cramer doesn't think it would lose so much in its internet search, since it trails behind Baidu (BIDU) in China anyway, but its loss of smartphone customers could have implications for many years down the road. Cramer is lowering his estimate for Google from $750 to $700. However, he thinks Google only has a 50% chance of pulling out of China and is expecting to report a "sizzling quarter." Given the uncertainty, "We can't be as bullish as we were" on Google, Cramer said, and he would buy Apple (OTC:APPL). Given Google's citing hacking as a major reason for backing out of China, Cramer would buy ArcSight (ARST) and predicts it could rise $5 from its $26 level.

Dominos Pizza (NYSE:DPZ), Papa John's (NASDAQ:PZZA), Yum Brands (NYSE:YUM)

Cramer used to favor Papa John's (PZZA) over Dominos (DPZ), but he has switched sides in the pizza war, now that Dominos has revamped its brand with a new recipe, has adopted a new ad campaign and boasts of stronger fundamentals. Dominos is benefiting from its 45% international exposure and the rapid decline of Pizza Hut owned by YUM Brands (YUM). Dominos saw a 10% increase in sequential sales for January and is growing faster than Papa John's. Cramer predicts Dominos could climb from $10 to $14.43.

A123 (AONE), Ener 1 (NASDAQ:HEV), Sociedad Quimica (NYSE:SQM), Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI)

While Cramer prefers natural gas as the ideal energy solution, automakers keep talking about batteries. In search of ways to invest in this trend, Cramer found few domestic battery plays. Johnson Controls (JCI) has a battery partnership with a French company, but the business is not big enough to justify a recommendation. A123 (AONE), and Ener 1 (HEV) are pure battery plays, but are not strong performers, especially given the amount of their stock sold short; 30% of A123 and 20% of Ener 1's shares.

The best auto battery play comes from fertilizer marker Sociedad Quimica (SQM), the world's largest producer of lithium. While 77% of the company's business is from fertilizer, the auto industry will require an estimated 200,000 tons of lithium by 2015. The company is based in Chile, which is seeing a remarkable economic upturn. Cramer would buy SQM at this level, but prefers waiting for a pullback.


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