I previously detailed a potential strategy for gaining outsized returns by combining value and earnings surprises.
Below is an update to the screen. I used Zacks Premium screener primarily because they have the most robust screener I have used for earnings surprises.
Below is an update to the screen. I used Zacks Premium screener primarily because they have the most robust screener I have used for earnings surprises.
I have further filtered the stocks to include small cap stocks (defined here as a market cap of less then $1 billion). There are rationales (such as here and here) for screening for small caps versus the entire market, but one could apply the value/earnings surprise theory to stocks of all sizes.
The screen criteria are below and the first table is the qualifying stocks using data collected at the close on Friday 1/15/10. The second list is the previous list with data collected after the close on Thursday 12/17/09 and their returns through the close 1/15/10. The list from 12/17/09 to 1/15/10 had an average return of 12.64%.
Returns exclude slippage, commissions, and taxes (if any). This portfolio will now be tracked at Scott's Investments on the right hand column under 'ETF & Timing Portfolios'.
Returns exclude slippage, commissions, and taxes (if any). This portfolio will now be tracked at Scott's Investments on the right hand column under 'ETF & Timing Portfolios'.
- Last EPS Surprise (%)>="20"
- Price/Book<="1"
- Last Quarter's EPS>="0"
- Twelve Month Trailing EPS>="0"
- Avg EPS Surprise (Last 4 Quarters)>="20"
- Previous EPS Surprise (%)>="20"
- Average Volume (20 Days)>="25000"
- Market Cap (millions)<="1000"
| Company Name | Ticker | Marketclub Trend Score (-100 to +100) | Current Price | Last EPS Surprise (%) | P / Book |
| INFINITY PPTY | IPCC | 55 | 40.06 | 46.94 | 0.92 |
| CELERA CORP | CRA | 55 | 7.13 | 100 | 0.99 |
| INFORMATION SVC | III | 55 | 3.22 | 900 | 0.78 |
| AMER RAILCAR | ARII | 65 | 10.59 | 150 | 0.67 |
| FIRST INDL RLTY | FR | 70 | 5.73 | 21.28 | 0.26 |
| KADANT INC | KAI | -60 | 15.55 | 126.32 | 0.98 |
| BANCORP BNK/THE | TBBK | 100 | 7.21 | 500 | 0.74 |
| UTD AMER INDEMN | INDM | 55 | 7.38 | 153.33 | 0.55 |
| RADVISION LTD | RVSN | -55 | 6.27 | 225 | 0.92 |
| QLT INC | QLTI | -60 | 4.7 | 25 | 0.82 |
| SUSQUEHANNA BSH | SUSQ | 100 | 7.21 | 175 | 0.37 |
| KINDRED HLTHCR | KND | 55 | 18.13 | 400 | 0.75 |
| WILMINGTON TRST | WL | 60 | 14 | 171.43 | 0.98 |
| REGIS CORP/MN | RGS | -75 | 15.66 | 38.1 | 0.9 |
Last month's results:
| Company Name | Ticker | 12/17/09 Close | 1/15/10 Close | Return |
| CABELAS INC | CAB | 14.14 | 16.47 | 16.48% |
| INFINITY PPTY | IPCC | 38.97 | 40.06 | 2.80% |
| CELERA CORP | CRA | 6.35 | 7.13 | 12.28% |
| INFORMATION SVC | III | 2.98 | 3.22 | 8.05% |
| AMER RAILCAR | ARII | 10.24 | 10.59 | 3.42% |
| IPASS INC | IPAS | 0.95 | 1.17 | 23.16% |
| FIRST INDL RLTY | FR | 4.95 | 5.73 | 15.76% |
| WINTHROP REALTY | FUR | 9.27 | 12.93 | 39.48% |
| KADANT INC | KAI | 15.59 | 15.55 | -0.26% |
| BANCORP BNK/THE | TBBK | 6.6 | 7.21 | 9.24% |
| UTD AMER INDEMN | INDM | 7.47 | 7.38 | -1.20% |
| INNOSPEC INC | IOSP | 9.77 | 11.57 | 18.42% |
| NYMAGIC INC | NYM | 16.41 | 16.29 | -0.73% |
| SOLARFUN POWER | SOLF | 7.16 | 8.48 | 18.44% |
| QLT INC | QLTI | 4.75 | 4.7 | -1.05% |
| RADVISION LTD | RVSN | 5.85 | 6.27 | 7.18% |
| SALEM COMM | SALM | 4.49 | 5.32 | 18.49% |
| PARKER DRILLING | PKD | 4.68 | 5.55 | 18.59% |
| SUSQUEHANNA BSH | SUSQ | 5.61 | 7.21 | 28.52% |
| STARTEK INC | SRT | 6.5 | 8.05 | 23.85% |
| KINDRED HLTHCR | KND | 17.46 | 18.13 | 3.84% |
| WILMINGTON TRST | WL | 12 | 14 | 16.67% |
| REGIS CORP/MN | RGS | 15.63 | 15.66 | 0.19% |
| KIMBALL INTL B | KBALB | 7.87 | 8.03 | 2.03% |
| WESTELL TECH-A | WSTL | 1.11 | 1.47 | 32.43% |
| Avg Return | 12.64% |
Author's Disclosure: No positions in the stocks mentioned
