Citibank (C) is scheduled to release Q4 earnings this Monday January 19th, before the market opens.
Average analyst estimates for the government owned bank are -$.33/share in EPS and $18.43 billion in Revenue. Fifteen analysts track the stock with four upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and 1 downward EPS revision in the last 30 days.
Last quarter, Citi beat average analysts expectations by .11/share or 28.9%, -.27/share vs. -.38/share.
I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates. One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release. In the case of Citi, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Citi to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter through today.
I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release. (piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment).
Sentiment for Citi
Source Piqqem
The above chart shows Citi’s sentiment peaking on November 30, 2009 and then steadily heading downward. The chart also shows a 7 pt decrease in sentiment from the end of Q4 through today. This last indicator has historically been the most accurate indicator regarding an earnings surprise, both upside and downside. On the Piqqem scale, Citi’s sentiment rating of 14.77 is considered a hold and this absolute sentiment indicates a moderate quality stock. Only Citi knows their actual results, but their current sentiment points to Citi struggling with their upcoming release.
Disclosure: No Positions
