Advanced Micro Devices: Sentiment Down Ahead of Earnings

Jan.19.10 | About: Advanced Micro (AMD)

AMD is scheduled to release Q4 earnings this Thursday January 21st, after the market close.

Average analyst estimates for the chip maker are -$.18/share in EPS and $1.49 billion in Revenue. Nineteen analysts track the stock with three upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days.

Last quarter, AMD beat average analysts expectations by $.24/share or 57.1%, -.18/share vs. -.42/share.

I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates. One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release. In the case of AMD, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for AMD to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter through today.

I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release. (piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment).

Sentiment for AMD
Click to enlarge

Source Piqqem

The above chart shows AMD’s sentiment peaking on October 31, 2009 and then dropping over 10 pts to today. The chart also shows a 2.5 pt decrease in sentiment from the end of Q4 through today. This last indicator has historically been the most accurate indicator regarding an earnings surprise, both upside and downside. On the Piqqem scale, AMD’s sentiment rating of 1.04 is considered a hold and absolute sentiment indicates a neutral quality stock. Only AMD knows their actual results, but their current sentiment points to AMD struggling with this earnings release.

Disclosure: No Positions