ETF Market Trends: Sellers Shift Market Focus to High Quality Earnings, Sustainable Economic Stability

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Includes: AGG, BBH, CEW, DIA, EEM, EWG, EWQ, EWS, EWT, EWU, EWX, EWY, FNIO, FXC, FXI, FXY, GLD, GMF, GUR, ICN, IEV, ITB, IWM, OIH, QQQ, REM, RSX, RTL, SMH, SPY, SWH, TIP, TLT, UNG, USO, VGK, VXX, XHB, XLF, XLK, XLP, XLU
by: J Clinton Hill

Market Direction Summary (01-15-2010)

Exhibiting patterns typical of an options expiration trading session, volume was significantly higher as bulls complacently watched sellers take control of the market.

Capitulation clearly was the dominant price-volume relationship on Friday. The Hillbent 3000 (top 3000 market cap, including ADRs, with minumum average volume of 100k) registered @ 53% stocks trading price down and volume up.

Overall, volume relative to average trading volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges expanded 40% and 33%, respectively.

While the more important intermediate and primary trends for stocks remain upward and bullish, it is important to note that the SPY, QQQQ, and IWM each violated the support of their short-term uptrends on Friday.

This week’s trading will be an important test to determine if key benchmark equity indexes can re-establish their positive momentum and resume their uptrends.

Market moving events for Friday were primarily contained to earnings events and concern over Greece’s financial stability:

1) Financials: Banking giant JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) beat the consensus earnings forecast, but its weaker than expected revenues and cautious statements toward consumer credit and loss provisions disappointed investors.

2) Technology: Semiconductor bellwether Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) announced better than expected earnings results and issued strong guidance for the current quarter’s revenue outlook. However, as the stock had already advanced +12.6% from its Dec-17th low to its Jan-14th close, its quarterly results appeared to be already priced into the stock and encouraged profit-taking.

3) Forex: A short-term oversold U.S. Dollar index bounced back +0.63% on concerns for sovereign EU member Greece’s financial health and stability. The net impact pressured commodity prices and saw the CRB index retreat -1.06%.

4) Economic Data: There was nothing surprising about the release of Friday’s economic indicator reports. December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% m/m or slightly less than the 0.2% forecasted by many economists. December’s Industrial Production met expectations with a 0.6% increase. Capacity utilization, an underlying component, stood @ 72.0%. Michigan’s January Consumer Sentiment Survey @ 72.8 came in just under the anticipated reading of 74.0.

ETF New Highs and New Lows

ETF 5 Day New Highs: (Note * denotes 250 day new high)

  • U.S. Equities (XLV*, FAA, PPH*, SWH*)
  • International Equities (EWJ*)
  • Commodities (COW, PTM)
  • Forex (FXY, UUP, XRU)
  • Bonds (AGG, IEF, MBB, MUB, SHY, TIP, TLT)
  • Real Estate (N/A)

ETF 5 Day New Lows: (Note * denotes 250 day new low)

  • U.S. Equities (DIA, SPY, IYZ, XLB, XLI, XLK, XLU, CRBQ, CUT, FAN, FDN, GDX, HAP, IAI, IGF, IYT, KIE, KOL, PHO, PXR, SLX, SMH, TAN, XME)
  • International Equities (EWW, EWZ, ILF, EWG, EWQ, IEV, VGK, EWH, EWS, FXI, IF, IFN, EEM, EWX, GAF, GMF, GML)
  • Commodities (DBC, JJG, USO)
  • Forex (CEW, FXE, FXF, ICN, XRU)
  • Bonds (EMB, HYG, JNK)
  • Real Estate (REM, XHB)

No further comments this evening from Hillbent on the Market Direction…

ETF Market Trends Monitor (01-15-2010)

U.S. Equity ETFs
Equity Indexes Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
DIA (DJ Industrials) 106.01 -0.95% 87.78% 33 up up up
SPY (S&P 500) 113.64 -1.12% 64.32% 27 down up up
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) 45.85 -1.16% 72.86% 22 down up up
IWM (Russell 2000) 63.68 -1.45% 35.66% 27 down up up
VXX (VIX Futures) 29.51 2.64% 188.67% 58 down down down
Major Sectors Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
IYZ (Telecom) 19.44 -1.12% 33.90% 34 down up up
XLB (Materials) 33.76 -0.85% -7.44% 25 down up up
XLE (Energy) 59.26 -0.80% 19.80% 43 up up up
XLF (Financials) 14.94 -2.03% 29.72% 8 up up up
XLI (Industrials) 29.07 -1.29% -1.20% 18 up up up
XLK (Technology) 22.66 -1.39% 71.92% 16 down up up
XLP (Consumer Staples) 26.77 -0.48% 85.10% 32 up up up
XLU (Utilities) 30.91 -0.64% 34.09% 72 down up up
XLV (Health Care) 32.22 -0.68% 57.29% 40 up up up
XLY (Consumer Discrtn) 29.98 -0.99% 18.48% 22 down up up
Key Industries Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
BBH (Biotech) 99.50 -0.32% 88.85% 66 up up up
CRBQ (Global Commodities) 44.28 -1.53% -45.70% 0 down up n/a
CUT (Global Timber) 18.42 -1.02% 1.89% 65 down up up
FAA (Airlines) 32.35 -1.85% 223.40% 15 up up n/a
Fan (Global Wind Energy) 15.36 -1.73% -29.61% 21 down down up
FDN (DJ Internet Index) 24.72 -0.76% 83.23% 51 down up up
GDX (Gold Miners) 47.42 -2.43% 5.43% 36 down down up
HAP (Hard Assets Producers) 34.67 -1.70% 314.73% 7 down up up
IAI (Broker-Dealers) 28.20 -0.91% -75.47% 54 down up up
IGF (Global Infrastructure) 35.24 -1.43% 25.40% 43 up up up
IGN (GSTI Networking) 27.54 -1.04% -46.88% 16 up up up
IHI (Medical Devices) 54.78 -1.07% -57.89% 32 up up up
ITA (Aerospace & Defense) 53.62 -1.45% -45.60% 24 up up up
IYT (Transportation) 75.07 -1.22% -0.59% 24 down up up
KIE (Insurance) 36.40 -1.33% -17.10% 32 up up up
KOL (Coal) 38.83 -1.85% 8.15% 29 up up up
MOO (Agribusiness) 45.69 -0.98% -47.66% 14 down up up
NLR (Nuclear Energy) 23.71 -0.75% 5.75% 58 up up up
OIH (Oil Services) 130.18 -1.05% 57.81% 39 up up up
PHO (Water Resources) 17.28 -1.37% -40.81% 25 down up up
PPH (Pharmaceuticals) 68.16 -0.63% 187.19% 43 up up up
PXR (Emerge Mkts Infrastructure) 44.85 -1.32% 368.51% 26 up up up
RKH (Regional Banks) 81.21 -2.29% 59.56% 12 up up up
RTH (Retail) 93.30 -0.37% 51.56% 14 down down up
SEA (Global Shipping) 15.20 -0.39% 96.10% 81 up up up
SLX (Steel) 65.00 -2.27% -13.73% 11 up up up
SMH (Semiconductor) 26.93 -3.13% 82.83% 2 down up up
SWH (Software) 42.97 -0.62% -90.91% 57 down up up
TAN (Global Solar Energy) 10.09 -4.36% 88.63% 7 down up up
XME (Metals & Mining) 55.39 -2.03% 35.12% 25 down up up
International Equity ETFs
Americas Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EWC (MSCI Canada) 26.71 -1.51% -14.31% 14 down up up
EWW (MSCI Mexico) 50.06 -1.94% 13.25% 2 down up up
EWZ( MSCI Brazil) 73.54 -1.26% 66.99% 28 down down up
ILF (Latin America 40) 47.48 -1.56% -5.11% 7 down up up
ISI (S&P 1500) 51.12 -1.20% -3.60% 17 up up up
Europe Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EWG (MSCI Germany) 22.42 -2.39% 85.69% 41 down down up
EWQ (MSCI France) 26.47 -2.18% -56.43% 35 down up up
EWU (United Kingdom) 16.69 -0.95% -42.85% 48 up up up
IEV (S&P Europe 350) 39.80 -1.80% 19.75% 31 down up up
RSX (Russia) 33.81 -1.05% 34.60% 30 up up up
VGK (Vanguard Europe) 49.54 -2.09% -2.12% 8 down down up
Asian-Pacific Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EWA (MSCI Australia) 23.63 -2.15% -6.88% 21 up up up
EWH (MSCI Hong Kong) 15.71 -1.32% -12.51% 39 down down up
EWJ (MSCI Japan) 10.46 -0.29% 35.35% 63 up up up
EWM (MSCI Malaysia) 11.10 -1.07% -24.09% 0 up up up
EWS (MSCI Singapore) 11.60 -1.28% 20.38% 13 down up up
EWT (MSCI Taiwan) 13.22 -0.53% 110.64% 11 up up up
EWY (MSCI South Korea) 49.41 -0.74% -5.87% 10 up up up
FXI (FSTE China) 41.45 -1.61% 39.67% 18 down down up
IF (Indonesia Fund) 10.18 -0.39% -3.04% 81 up up up
IFN (India Fund) 31.73 -1.31% -11.30% 47 up up up
VNM (Vietnam) 26.59 -1.99% 62.23% 68 down down down
Emerging Markets Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EEM (MSCI Emerging Mkts) 41.95 -1.16% 43.67% 22 down up up
EWX (Emerging Small Caps) 49.17 -1.23% 122.85% 9 up up up
GAF (Middle East & Africa) 62.95 -1.70% -57.79% 8 down up up
GMF (Emerging Asia Pacific) 75.50 -1.05% 13.92% 26 down up up
GML (Emerging Latin America) 79.77 -1.52% -40.07% 20 down up up
GUR (Emerging Europe) 46.10 -1.28% -16.83% 36 up up up
Alternative Assets
Commodities Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
COW (Livestock) 28.84 0.14% -68.40% 26 up up down
DBA (Agriculture) 26.11 -0.91% -32.85% 3 down down up
DBB (Base Metals) 22.51 -1.36% 16.15% 48 down up up
DBC (Commodities) 24.37 -1.14% -31.45% 23 down up up
GLD (Gold) 110.87 -1.04% -24.09% 30 up up up
JJC (Copper) 46.14 -1.18% 268.46% 51 down up up
JJG (Grains) 37.37 -2.25% 5.73% 4 down down down
PTM (Platinum) 19.35 -0.26% -58.34% 43 up up up
SLV (Silver) 18.06 -1.37% -23.54% 13 up up up
UGA (Gasoline) 36.30 -1.20% 20.09% 32 down up up
UNG (Natural Gas) 10.24 1.49% 41.60% 31 down up down
USO (Oil) 38.40 -1.69% 5.45% 16 down down up
Forex Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
BZF (Brazilian Real) 26.23 -0.30% 170.63% 24 down down up
CEW (Emerging Currency) 22.33 -0.18% -60.39% 50 up up up
CYB (Chinese Yuan) 25.31 -0.04% -22.62% 60 up lateral lateral
DBV (G10 Currencies) 23.71 -0.63% 91.10% 11 up up up
FXA (Australian Dollar) 92.45 -0.88% -27.27% 32 up up up
FXB (British Pound) 162.11 -0.42% 19.41% 44 up down up
FXC (Canadian Dollar) 96.80 -0.62% 105.21% 28 up up up
FXE (Euro) 143.55 -0.84% 83.31% 100 down down up
FXF (Swiss Franc) 96.95 -0.77% 57.03% 47 up down up
FXM (Mexican Peso) 78.85 0.00% 119.37% 95 up up up
FXY (Japanese Yen) 109.23 0.30% -41.49% 67 up down up
ICN (Indian Rupee) 25.54 -0.62% -19.15% 25 up up up
UUP (U.S. Dollar) 22.77 0.57% -54.02% 25 down up down
XRU (Russian Ruble) 33.30 -0.69% -56.09% 8 down down up
Bonds Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
AGG (Investment Grade) 104.27 0.19% -22.27% 41 up down up
BWX (Int’l Tsy Bonds) 57.76 -0.16% -48.52% 87 up down up
EMB (Emerging Mkt Bonds) 102.31 0.00% 57.04% 17 down up up
HYG (Hi Yld Corp) 89.08 -0.40% 43.03% 17 up up up
IEF (7-10 Yr Tsy) 90.04 0.44% -16.84% 42 up down down
JNK (Hi Yld Bonds) 39.77 -0.43% 21.47% 33 up up up
MBB (Mortgage Bonds) 107.08 0.22% 13.07% 24 up down up
MUB (Nat’l Muni Bond) 103.27 0.06% -7.54% 54 up up up
SHY (1-3 Yr Tsy) 83.43 0.08% -15.27% 40 up down down
TIP (Tsy Inflation Protect) 105.01 0.32% 2.16% 42 up up up
TLT (20 Yr+ Tsy) 91.08 0.62% 27.12% 29 up down down
WIP (Int’l Inflation Protect) 57.00 -0.16% -40.61% 34 up down up
Real Estate Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
FIO (Industrial Office) 23.86 -0.67% -40.08% 53 down up up
ICF (Cohen & Steers) 52.16 -0.97% 28.67% 25 down up up
ITB (Home Construction) 12.80 -1.69% -32.50% 18 up up up
IYR (DJ US Real Estate) 45.71 -0.91% 1.91% 28 down up up
REM (Mortgage Reits) 14.79 -1.14% 121.92% 15 down up up
REZ (Residential Index) 30.59 -0.62% -14.10% 27 down up up
RTL (Retail Index) 21.57 0.19% -48.50% 100 down up up
XHB (Homebuilders) 15.64 -1.88% 50.02% 3 down up up
Click to enlarge

*PMI measures strength of % daily trading range on scale of 0 to 100

**ST = Short-Term Trend; MT = Intermediate Trend; LT = Long-Term or Primary Trend

***Vol% measures % change in daily volume vs. average daily volume
Market Momentum Diary: 01-15-2010

% Stocks > Mov Avg 20-Day MA 50-Day MA 200-Day MA
Today 66.84% 78.93% 86.10%
Yesterday 76.78% 84.14% 86.99%
Last Week 79.66% 85.04% 87.16%
Last Month 68.34% 64.98% 84.32%
Daily Market Stats NYSE NASDAQ
Advancers 931 673
Decliners 2138 2026
Advancing Shares 855199800 565130200
Declining Shares 4070468200 2080930900
52 Week New Highs 268 65
52 Week New Lows 2 3
Click to enlarge

Hillbent Market Direction Resources

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