Market Direction Summary (01-15-2010)
Exhibiting patterns typical of an options expiration trading session, volume was significantly higher as bulls complacently watched sellers take control of the market.
Capitulation clearly was the dominant price-volume relationship on Friday. The Hillbent 3000 (top 3000 market cap, including ADRs, with minumum average volume of 100k) registered @ 53% stocks trading price down and volume up.
Overall, volume relative to average trading volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges expanded 40% and 33%, respectively.
While the more important intermediate and primary trends for stocks remain upward and bullish, it is important to note that the SPY, QQQQ, and IWM each violated the support of their short-term uptrends on Friday.
This week’s trading will be an important test to determine if key benchmark equity indexes can re-establish their positive momentum and resume their uptrends.
Market moving events for Friday were primarily contained to earnings events and concern over Greece’s financial stability:
1) Financials: Banking giant JP Morgan (JPM) beat the consensus earnings forecast, but its weaker than expected revenues and cautious statements toward consumer credit and loss provisions disappointed investors.
2) Technology: Semiconductor bellwether Intel (INTC) announced better than expected earnings results and issued strong guidance for the current quarter’s revenue outlook. However, as the stock had already advanced +12.6% from its Dec-17th low to its Jan-14th close, its quarterly results appeared to be already priced into the stock and encouraged profit-taking.
3) Forex: A short-term oversold U.S. Dollar index bounced back +0.63% on concerns for sovereign EU member Greece’s financial health and stability. The net impact pressured commodity prices and saw the CRB index retreat -1.06%.
4) Economic Data: There was nothing surprising about the release of Friday’s economic indicator reports. December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% m/m or slightly less than the 0.2% forecasted by many economists. December’s Industrial Production met expectations with a 0.6% increase. Capacity utilization, an underlying component, stood @ 72.0%. Michigan’s January Consumer Sentiment Survey @ 72.8 came in just under the anticipated reading of 74.0.
ETF New Highs and New Lows
ETF 5 Day New Highs: (Note * denotes 250 day new high)
- U.S. Equities (XLV*, FAA, PPH*, SWH*)
- International Equities (EWJ*)
- Commodities (COW, PTM)
- Forex (FXY, UUP, XRU)
- Bonds (AGG, IEF, MBB, MUB, SHY, TIP, TLT)
- Real Estate (N/A)
ETF 5 Day New Lows: (Note * denotes 250 day new low)
- U.S. Equities (DIA, SPY, IYZ, XLB, XLI, XLK, XLU, CRBQ, CUT, FAN, FDN, GDX, HAP, IAI, IGF, IYT, KIE, KOL, PHO, PXR, SLX, SMH, TAN, XME)
- International Equities (EWW, EWZ, ILF, EWG, EWQ, IEV, VGK, EWH, EWS, FXI, IF, IFN, EEM, EWX, GAF, GMF, GML)
- Commodities (DBC, JJG, USO)
- Forex (CEW, FXE, FXF, ICN, XRU)
- Bonds (EMB, HYG, JNK)
- Real Estate (REM, XHB)
No further comments this evening from Hillbent on the Market Direction…
ETF Market Trends™ Monitor (01-15-2010)
| U.S. Equity ETFs | |||||||
| Equity Indexes | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| DIA (DJ Industrials) | 106.01 | -0.95% | 87.78% | 33 | up | up | up |
| SPY (S&P 500) | 113.64 | -1.12% | 64.32% | 27 | down | up | up |
| QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) | 45.85 | -1.16% | 72.86% | 22 | down | up | up |
| IWM (Russell 2000) | 63.68 | -1.45% | 35.66% | 27 | down | up | up |
| VXX (VIX Futures) | 29.51 | 2.64% | 188.67% | 58 | down | down | down |
| Major Sectors | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| IYZ (Telecom) | 19.44 | -1.12% | 33.90% | 34 | down | up | up |
| XLB (Materials) | 33.76 | -0.85% | -7.44% | 25 | down | up | up |
| XLE (Energy) | 59.26 | -0.80% | 19.80% | 43 | up | up | up |
| XLF (Financials) | 14.94 | -2.03% | 29.72% | 8 | up | up | up |
| XLI (Industrials) | 29.07 | -1.29% | -1.20% | 18 | up | up | up |
| XLK (Technology) | 22.66 | -1.39% | 71.92% | 16 | down | up | up |
| XLP (Consumer Staples) | 26.77 | -0.48% | 85.10% | 32 | up | up | up |
| XLU (Utilities) | 30.91 | -0.64% | 34.09% | 72 | down | up | up |
| XLV (Health Care) | 32.22 | -0.68% | 57.29% | 40 | up | up | up |
| XLY (Consumer Discrtn) | 29.98 | -0.99% | 18.48% | 22 | down | up | up |
| Key Industries | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| BBH (Biotech) | 99.50 | -0.32% | 88.85% | 66 | up | up | up |
| CRBQ (Global Commodities) | 44.28 | -1.53% | -45.70% | 0 | down | up | n/a |
| CUT (Global Timber) | 18.42 | -1.02% | 1.89% | 65 | down | up | up |
| FAA (Airlines) | 32.35 | -1.85% | 223.40% | 15 | up | up | n/a |
| Fan (Global Wind Energy) | 15.36 | -1.73% | -29.61% | 21 | down | down | up |
| FDN (DJ Internet Index) | 24.72 | -0.76% | 83.23% | 51 | down | up | up |
| GDX (Gold Miners) | 47.42 | -2.43% | 5.43% | 36 | down | down | up |
| HAP (Hard Assets Producers) | 34.67 | -1.70% | 314.73% | 7 | down | up | up |
| IAI (Broker-Dealers) | 28.20 | -0.91% | -75.47% | 54 | down | up | up |
| IGF (Global Infrastructure) | 35.24 | -1.43% | 25.40% | 43 | up | up | up |
| IGN (GSTI Networking) | 27.54 | -1.04% | -46.88% | 16 | up | up | up |
| IHI (Medical Devices) | 54.78 | -1.07% | -57.89% | 32 | up | up | up |
| ITA (Aerospace & Defense) | 53.62 | -1.45% | -45.60% | 24 | up | up | up |
| IYT (Transportation) | 75.07 | -1.22% | -0.59% | 24 | down | up | up |
| KIE (Insurance) | 36.40 | -1.33% | -17.10% | 32 | up | up | up |
| KOL (Coal) | 38.83 | -1.85% | 8.15% | 29 | up | up | up |
| MOO (Agribusiness) | 45.69 | -0.98% | -47.66% | 14 | down | up | up |
| NLR (Nuclear Energy) | 23.71 | -0.75% | 5.75% | 58 | up | up | up |
| OIH (Oil Services) | 130.18 | -1.05% | 57.81% | 39 | up | up | up |
| PHO (Water Resources) | 17.28 | -1.37% | -40.81% | 25 | down | up | up |
| PPH (Pharmaceuticals) | 68.16 | -0.63% | 187.19% | 43 | up | up | up |
| PXR (Emerge Mkts Infrastructure) | 44.85 | -1.32% | 368.51% | 26 | up | up | up |
| RKH (Regional Banks) | 81.21 | -2.29% | 59.56% | 12 | up | up | up |
| RTH (Retail) | 93.30 | -0.37% | 51.56% | 14 | down | down | up |
| SEA (Global Shipping) | 15.20 | -0.39% | 96.10% | 81 | up | up | up |
| SLX (Steel) | 65.00 | -2.27% | -13.73% | 11 | up | up | up |
| SMH (Semiconductor) | 26.93 | -3.13% | 82.83% | 2 | down | up | up |
| SWH (Software) | 42.97 | -0.62% | -90.91% | 57 | down | up | up |
| TAN (Global Solar Energy) | 10.09 | -4.36% | 88.63% | 7 | down | up | up |
| XME (Metals & Mining) | 55.39 | -2.03% | 35.12% | 25 | down | up | up |
| International Equity ETFs | |||||||
| Americas | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| EWC (MSCI Canada) | 26.71 | -1.51% | -14.31% | 14 | down | up | up |
| EWW (MSCI Mexico) | 50.06 | -1.94% | 13.25% | 2 | down | up | up |
| EWZ( MSCI Brazil) | 73.54 | -1.26% | 66.99% | 28 | down | down | up |
| ILF (Latin America 40) | 47.48 | -1.56% | -5.11% | 7 | down | up | up |
| ISI (S&P 1500) | 51.12 | -1.20% | -3.60% | 17 | up | up | up |
| Europe | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| EWG (MSCI Germany) | 22.42 | -2.39% | 85.69% | 41 | down | down | up |
| EWQ (MSCI France) | 26.47 | -2.18% | -56.43% | 35 | down | up | up |
| EWU (United Kingdom) | 16.69 | -0.95% | -42.85% | 48 | up | up | up |
| IEV (S&P Europe 350) | 39.80 | -1.80% | 19.75% | 31 | down | up | up |
| RSX (Russia) | 33.81 | -1.05% | 34.60% | 30 | up | up | up |
| VGK (Vanguard Europe) | 49.54 | -2.09% | -2.12% | 8 | down | down | up |
| Asian-Pacific | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| EWA (MSCI Australia) | 23.63 | -2.15% | -6.88% | 21 | up | up | up |
| EWH (MSCI Hong Kong) | 15.71 | -1.32% | -12.51% | 39 | down | down | up |
| EWJ (MSCI Japan) | 10.46 | -0.29% | 35.35% | 63 | up | up | up |
| EWM (MSCI Malaysia) | 11.10 | -1.07% | -24.09% | 0 | up | up | up |
| EWS (MSCI Singapore) | 11.60 | -1.28% | 20.38% | 13 | down | up | up |
| EWT (MSCI Taiwan) | 13.22 | -0.53% | 110.64% | 11 | up | up | up |
| EWY (MSCI South Korea) | 49.41 | -0.74% | -5.87% | 10 | up | up | up |
| FXI (FSTE China) | 41.45 | -1.61% | 39.67% | 18 | down | down | up |
| IF (Indonesia Fund) | 10.18 | -0.39% | -3.04% | 81 | up | up | up |
| IFN (India Fund) | 31.73 | -1.31% | -11.30% | 47 | up | up | up |
| VNM (Vietnam) | 26.59 | -1.99% | 62.23% | 68 | down | down | down |
| Emerging Markets | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| EEM (MSCI Emerging Mkts) | 41.95 | -1.16% | 43.67% | 22 | down | up | up |
| EWX (Emerging Small Caps) | 49.17 | -1.23% | 122.85% | 9 | up | up | up |
| GAF (Middle East & Africa) | 62.95 | -1.70% | -57.79% | 8 | down | up | up |
| GMF (Emerging Asia Pacific) | 75.50 | -1.05% | 13.92% | 26 | down | up | up |
| GML (Emerging Latin America) | 79.77 | -1.52% | -40.07% | 20 | down | up | up |
| GUR (Emerging Europe) | 46.10 | -1.28% | -16.83% | 36 | up | up | up |
| Alternative Assets | |||||||
| Commodities | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| COW (Livestock) | 28.84 | 0.14% | -68.40% | 26 | up | up | down |
| DBA (Agriculture) | 26.11 | -0.91% | -32.85% | 3 | down | down | up |
| DBB (Base Metals) | 22.51 | -1.36% | 16.15% | 48 | down | up | up |
| DBC (Commodities) | 24.37 | -1.14% | -31.45% | 23 | down | up | up |
| GLD (Gold) | 110.87 | -1.04% | -24.09% | 30 | up | up | up |
| JJC (Copper) | 46.14 | -1.18% | 268.46% | 51 | down | up | up |
| JJG (Grains) | 37.37 | -2.25% | 5.73% | 4 | down | down | down |
| PTM (Platinum) | 19.35 | -0.26% | -58.34% | 43 | up | up | up |
| SLV (Silver) | 18.06 | -1.37% | -23.54% | 13 | up | up | up |
| UGA (Gasoline) | 36.30 | -1.20% | 20.09% | 32 | down | up | up |
| UNG (Natural Gas) | 10.24 | 1.49% | 41.60% | 31 | down | up | down |
| USO (Oil) | 38.40 | -1.69% | 5.45% | 16 | down | down | up |
| Forex | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| BZF (Brazilian Real) | 26.23 | -0.30% | 170.63% | 24 | down | down | up |
| CEW (Emerging Currency) | 22.33 | -0.18% | -60.39% | 50 | up | up | up |
| CYB (Chinese Yuan) | 25.31 | -0.04% | -22.62% | 60 | up | lateral | lateral |
| DBV (G10 Currencies) | 23.71 | -0.63% | 91.10% | 11 | up | up | up |
| FXA (Australian Dollar) | 92.45 | -0.88% | -27.27% | 32 | up | up | up |
| FXB (British Pound) | 162.11 | -0.42% | 19.41% | 44 | up | down | up |
| FXC (Canadian Dollar) | 96.80 | -0.62% | 105.21% | 28 | up | up | up |
| FXE (Euro) | 143.55 | -0.84% | 83.31% | 100 | down | down | up |
| FXF (Swiss Franc) | 96.95 | -0.77% | 57.03% | 47 | up | down | up |
| FXM (Mexican Peso) | 78.85 | 0.00% | 119.37% | 95 | up | up | up |
| FXY (Japanese Yen) | 109.23 | 0.30% | -41.49% | 67 | up | down | up |
| ICN (Indian Rupee) | 25.54 | -0.62% | -19.15% | 25 | up | up | up |
| UUP (U.S. Dollar) | 22.77 | 0.57% | -54.02% | 25 | down | up | down |
| XRU (Russian Ruble) | 33.30 | -0.69% | -56.09% | 8 | down | down | up |
| Bonds | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| AGG (Investment Grade) | 104.27 | 0.19% | -22.27% | 41 | up | down | up |
| BWX (Int’l Tsy Bonds) | 57.76 | -0.16% | -48.52% | 87 | up | down | up |
| EMB (Emerging Mkt Bonds) | 102.31 | 0.00% | 57.04% | 17 | down | up | up |
| HYG (Hi Yld Corp) | 89.08 | -0.40% | 43.03% | 17 | up | up | up |
| IEF (7-10 Yr Tsy) | 90.04 | 0.44% | -16.84% | 42 | up | down | down |
| JNK (Hi Yld Bonds) | 39.77 | -0.43% | 21.47% | 33 | up | up | up |
| MBB (Mortgage Bonds) | 107.08 | 0.22% | 13.07% | 24 | up | down | up |
| MUB (Nat’l Muni Bond) | 103.27 | 0.06% | -7.54% | 54 | up | up | up |
| SHY (1-3 Yr Tsy) | 83.43 | 0.08% | -15.27% | 40 | up | down | down |
| TIP (Tsy Inflation Protect) | 105.01 | 0.32% | 2.16% | 42 | up | up | up |
| TLT (20 Yr+ Tsy) | 91.08 | 0.62% | 27.12% | 29 | up | down | down |
| WIP (Int’l Inflation Protect) | 57.00 | -0.16% | -40.61% | 34 | up | down | up |
| Real Estate | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| FIO (Industrial Office) | 23.86 | -0.67% | -40.08% | 53 | down | up | up |
| ICF (Cohen & Steers) | 52.16 | -0.97% | 28.67% | 25 | down | up | up |
| ITB (Home Construction) | 12.80 | -1.69% | -32.50% | 18 | up | up | up |
| IYR (DJ US Real Estate) | 45.71 | -0.91% | 1.91% | 28 | down | up | up |
| REM (Mortgage Reits) | 14.79 | -1.14% | 121.92% | 15 | down | up | up |
| REZ (Residential Index) | 30.59 | -0.62% | -14.10% | 27 | down | up | up |
| RTL (Retail Index) | 21.57 | 0.19% | -48.50% | 100 | down | up | up |
| XHB (Homebuilders) | 15.64 | -1.88% | 50.02% | 3 | down | up | up |
*PMI measures strength of % daily trading range on scale of 0 to 100
**ST = Short-Term Trend; MT = Intermediate Trend; LT = Long-Term or Primary Trend
***Vol% measures % change in daily volume vs. average daily volume
Market Momentum Diary: 01-15-2010
| % Stocks > Mov Avg | 20-Day MA | 50-Day MA | 200-Day MA |
| Today | 66.84% | 78.93% | 86.10% |
| Yesterday | 76.78% | 84.14% | 86.99% |
| Last Week | 79.66% | 85.04% | 87.16% |
| Last Month | 68.34% | 64.98% | 84.32% |
| Daily Market Stats | NYSE | NASDAQ | |
| Advancers | 931 | 673 | |
| Decliners | 2138 | 2026 | |
| Advancing Shares | 855199800 | 565130200 | |
| Declining Shares | 4070468200 | 2080930900 | |
| 52 Week New Highs | 268 | 65 | |
| 52 Week New Lows | 2 | 3 | |
Hillbent Market Direction Resources
- Investor’s Selected Reading: N/A
- Economic Calendar Events: Refer to U.S. Calendar or International Calendar
- Postive & Negative Earnings Surprises: Refer to Hillbent’s earnings summary report for a detailed analysis of positive & negative earnings surprises
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