Uranium Miners Analyst Watch: November Edition

by: Itinerant

Editors' Note: This article covers one/several micro-cap stock(s). Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

As always at the start of a new month we would like to present our update on analyst price targets for uranium mining companies. The present November edition will summarize our most recent data and make comparisons with targets and recommendations reported a month ago in our October edition.

Most companies mentioned in this article have more analysts following their progress than considered in our database. This difference is due to the fact that not all analysts release their predictions to Yahoo.com. This article only considers analyst reports available through Yahoo.com and not all analysts are providing their data free of charge on this platform.

As in previous articles in this series we have considered the following companies in alphabetical order for this update: Cameco (NYSE:CCJ), Denison Mines (NYSEMKT:DNN), Energy Fuels (EFRFF), Fission Uranium (OTCQX:FCUUF), UEX Corp (OTCPK:UEXCF), Uranerz (NYSEMKT:URZ), Uranium Energy (NYSEMKT:UEC), Uranium Resources (NASDAQ:URRE) and Ur-Energy (NYSEMKT:URG).

Price targets for Energy Fuels, Fission Uranium and UEX Corp are given in Canadian Dollars and we used a conversion rate of 0.97 for this report.

Our data for these stocks is summarized in the table below. The first three columns list the company names, ticker symbols and share prices at the time of writing. Price targets (low, median and high) are listed in the following three columns. These targets are followed by a column giving the number of analysts providing data to Yahoo.com and the mean recommendations given by these analysts ranging from 1.0 (strong buy) to 5.0 (sell). This concludes the data sourced directly from Yahoo.com.

The following columns are colored in light green and contain data derived from our source data. These data points are given in percentages related to the share price at the time of writing. The column titled "median-price" gives the differences between the share price and the median price targets. The column titled "high-low" gives the difference between the high and the low targets. The last four columns titled "target change" document the changes in price targets since the October report with the last columns giving the average changes over the low, median and high price targets.

Click to enlarge

Note: At present there is only data from one single analyst available on Yahoo.com for Uranium Resources and Fission Uranium.

The difference between the current share price and the median price target is listed in column "median-price". Under normal circumstances we would view a large value in this column as an indicator for the potential of disproportionate gains over the coming year.

Both analysts following UEX Corp give price targets in excess of double the current share price. From the group of companies considered for this article UEX Corp clearly seems to be considered the company with the greatest upside. Fission Uranium, Cameco and Ur-Energy are trading the closest to their respective median price targets.

Click to enlarge

The results from column "high-low" in the table above are visualized in the next diagram. They can be interpreted as a measure for divergence in analyst opinion. For Fission Uranium and Uranium Resources targets from only one analyst were available.

Analysts following UEX Corp are both bullish on the company, but seem to diverge on the extent of the potential of this company. Price target divergence for all other companies in the observed group is much smaller with Uranerz coming second.

Click to enlarge

On average price targets have decreased by -1.39% during the past month. The chart below visualizes the content of column "target change (average)" for each company on our watch list.

Uranerz has suffered the greatest target cuts and Denison Mines' targets have also been reduced. Cameco's price targets on the other hand have been increased by just a fraction since our October review.

Click to enlarge

Unchanged from last month Ur-Energy is seen most favorably by analysts at present in terms of buy recommendations as documented in column "Recommendation" and the diagram below. In fact, the recommendation for Ur-Energy has improved even further to 1.4 with the change visualized by the small red bar. Analyst seem to be skeptical about Denison Mines which receives a recommendation rating of only 2.3.

Click to enlarge

Cameco Chart

Before we finish we would like to draw the attention of our readers to Cameco's price chart. Our interpretation of the chart indicates downward pressure after a bearish continuation triangle has broken to the down side. We would not be surprised to see the share price revisiting the $16 handle in the not-too-distant future. Your humble scribe will be lurking at these levels with sufficient dry powder to initiate a position.

Click to enlarge

Disclosure: I am long URZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.