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Market Direction Summary (01-21-2010)

Dow-30 -213.27 @ 10389.88; S&P 500 -21.56 @ 1116.48; Nasdaq 100 -17.38 @ 1850.57; Russell 2k -11.25 @ 628.36; VIX +3.59 @ 19.22; U.S. Dollar Index +0.91 @ 78.36; 10 Year Tsy Rates -0.48 @ 36.11; Crude Oil -1.53 @ 76.08; Gold -7.90 @ 1103.20; CRB -1.97 @ 277.51; DJ-U.S. Real Estate Index -5.37 @ 173.80

Some have shrugged off the China tightening story as overdone and I must admit that even I was a bit cheeky yesterday with my comments on China, but it is obviously an issue for the market. China’s torrid GDP pace @ 10.7% is a legitimate cause for inflation concerns by its central bank and other economies reliant upon its sustainable contributions to the global economic recovery.

Perhaps, an even bigger issue to contend with is President Obama’s banking reform proposal which would disallow proprietary trading and investing in hedge or private equity funds, along with special bank taxes to recover TARP money. If implemented, this wipes out a lot of chessboard investment strategies for 2010 and 2011.

Of course, saying something and doing something are two completely different matters. Only time will tell, as it did with the proposed healthcare reform legislation, what the likely outcome will be. The market hates exposure to unknown and unquantified risks. Expect the beatings to continue until morale improves or at the very least, a satisfactory answer from Washington D.C.

This somewhat explains the accelerated selling and lack of final hour buying in Thursday’s trading. Volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges was 44% and 38% respectively greater than average daily trading volume. Patterns of capitulation selling dominated the day as 56% of the Hillbent 3000 watchlist and 72% of a 209 industry group universe declined in price on expanding volume.

The VIX (volatility & fear indicator) busted through the resistance of its 50 day moving average and upper downward channel trendline. Closing or trading below the highly respected 50 day moving average are the following widely followed benchmark indices and ETFs:

  • Equity Indices: Dow 30 Industrials Index; DIA
  • Sectors: Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE); Consumer Staples (NYSEARCA:XLP); Basic Materials (NYSEARCA:XLB); Utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU); Telecom (NYSEARCA:IYZ); Financials (NYSEARCA:XLF)
  • Commodities: Gold, Oil, CRB Index, GLD, DBC, USO
  • Real Estate: Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index, IYR

Another interesting trend development is the U.S. Dollar. Both the U.S. Dollar index and the Bullish Dollar (NYSEARCA:UUP) exchange traded fund are within spitting distance of their 200 day moving averages. A successful test or failure at these key resistance levels will give us a lot more clues on the market direction throughout the remainder of the year.

Market Direction Drivers (01-21-2010)

No comments this evening…

ETF New Highs and New Lows (01-21-2010)

ETF 5 Day New Highs: (Note * denotes 250 day new high)

  • U.S. Equities (NYSEARCA:RTH)
  • International Equities (N/A)
  • Commodities (N/A)
  • Forex (FXY, UUP)
  • Bonds (AGG, IEF, MBB, MUB, SHY, TIP, TLT)
  • Real Estate (N/A)

ETF 5 Day New Lows: (Note * denotes 250 day new low)

  • U.S. Equities (DIA, IWM, SPY, QQQQ, VXX, VXZ, IYZ, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY, CRBQ, CUT, FAN, FDN, GDX, HAP, IAI, IGF, IHI, ITA, IYT, KIE, MOO, NLR, OIH, PHO, PXR, RTH, SEA, SLX, SMH, SWH, TAN, XME)
  • International Equities (EWC, EWW, EWZ, ILF, ISI, EWG, EWQ, EWU, IEV, RSX, VGK, EWA, EWH, EWM, EWS, EWT, EWY, FXI, IFN, VNM, EEM, EWX, GAF, GMF, GML, GUR)
  • Commodities (COW, DBB, DBC, GLD, JJC, PTM, SLV, UGA, USO)
  • Forex (BZF, CEW, CYB, DBV, FXA, FXB, FXC, FXE, FXF, FXY, ICN, XRU)
  • Bonds (BWX, EMB, HYG, JNK, WIP)
  • Real Estate (FIO, ICF, ITB, IYR, REM, REZ, RTL, XHB)
    Signing off at Hillbent on The Market Direction and ETF Market Trends™…

ETF Market Trends™ Monitor (01-21-2010)

U.S. Equity ETFs
Equity Indexes Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
DIA (DJ Industrials) 103.75 -2.14% 193.34% 2 down up up
SPY (S&P 500) 111.70 -1.92% 167.35% 5 down up up
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) 45.49 -0.94% 169.64% 18 down up up
IWM (Russell 2000) 62.86 -1.65% 100.33% 12 down up up
VXX (VIX Futures) 29.32 5.43% 289.74% 93 down down down
Major Sectors Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
IYZ (Telecom) 19.10 -1.24% 28.56% 34 down up up
XLB (Materials) 32.26 -4.36% 163.83% 0 down down up
XLE (Energy) 57.70 -1.99% 64.06% 11 down down up
XLF (Financials) 14.66 -2.85% 268.21% 24 down up up
XLI (Industrials) 28.27 -2.32% 133.80% 3 down up up
XLK (Technology) 22.44 -1.06% 54.16% 14 down up up
XLP (Consumer Staples) 26.35 -1.42% 32.39% 11 down down up
XLU (Utilities) 30.49 -1.45% 43.89% 12 down up up
XLV (Health Care) 31.98 -2.26% 115.61% 0 down up up
XLY (Consumer Discrtn) 29.59 -1.27% 44.03% 7 down up up
Key Industries Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
BBH (Biotech) 99.54 -1.36% 33.89% 28 up up up
CRBQ (Global Commodities) 42.24 -3.61% 35.84% 0 down down n/a
CUT (Global Timber) 17.63 -3.66% -32.56% 0 down down up
FAA (Airlines) 32.47 -0.67% 17.15% 20 up up n/a
FAA (Global Wind Energy) 14.37 -3.21% -36.13% 6 down down up
FDN (DJ Internet Index) 24.55 -0.32% -17.89% 27 down up up
GDX (Gold Miners) 43.75 -4.33% 94.28% 2 down down up
HAP (Hard Assets Producers) 33.26 -3.15% 16.27% 1 down down up
IAI (Broker-Dealers) 27.63 -2.47% 99.32% 25 down down up
IGF (Global Infrastructure) 34.51 -1.90% -14.96% 22 down up up
IGN (GSTI Networking) 27.41 -0.39% -6.40% 4 down up up
IHI (Medical Devices) 54.45 -1.89% 184.73% 10 down up up
ITA (Aerospace & Defense) 52.26 -2.24% -34.49% 4 down up up
IYT (Transportation) 73.68 -1.34% 54.36% 22 down up up
KIE (Insurance) 35.96 -2.10% -2.34% 23 down up up
KOL (Coal) 35.99 -6.23% 280.98% 13 down up up
MOO (Agribusiness) 44.01 -3.15% 80.86% 11 down up up
NLR (Nuclear Energy) 22.43 -3.53% -5.37% 0 down down up
OIH (Oil Services) 126.57 -1.66% 59.13% 7 down up up
PHO (Water Resources) 16.82 -1.75% 48.33% 24 down up up
PPH (Pharmaceuticals) 67.81 -2.35% 163.80% 2 up up up
PXR (Emerg Mkts Infrastructure) 42.51 -4.03% -1.55% 10 down down up
RKH (Regional Banks) 81.04 -1.79% 206.69% 22 down up up
RTH (Retail) 92.53 -1.13% 55.77% 7 down down up
SEA (Global Shipping) 14.50 -3.27% 138.90% 21 down up up
SLX (Steel) 61.13 -5.39% 220.98% 11 down up up
SMH (Semiconductor) 27.07 -0.37% 88.59% 35 down up up
SWH (Software) 41.91 -1.67% 2742.73% 19 down up up
TAN (Global Solar Energy) 9.39 -2.69% 73.44% 9 down down up
XME (Metals & Mining) 51.53 -6.14% 216.13% 4 down up up
International Equity ETFs
Americas Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EWC (MSCI Canada) 25.60 -2.07% 103.95% 3 down down up
EWW (MSCI Mexico) 47.75 -3.54% 57.15% 3 down down up
EWZ( MSCI Brazil) 69.13 -4.60% 140.73% 6 down down up
ILF (Latin America 40) 44.95 -4.10% 145.11% 0 down down up
ISI (S&P 1500) 50.28 -1.87% -6.54% 3 down up up
Europe Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EWG (MSCI Germany) 21.25 -3.06% 29.79% 13 down down up
EWQ (MSCI France) 25.15 -2.71% -10.61% 19 down down up
EWU (United Kingdom) 16.14 -3.06% 8.87% 21 down down up
IEV (S&P Europe 350) 37.98 -3.09% 41.81% 11 down down up
RSX (Russia) 32.56 -3.78% 55.61% 1 down up up
VGK (Vanguard Europe) 47.48 -3.10% 57.10% 11 down down up
Asian-Pacific Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EWA (MSCI Australia) 22.50 -3.35% 107.50% 0 down down up
EWH (MSCI Hong Kong) 15.08 -2.96% 163.35% 24 down down up
EWJ (MSCI Japan) 10.28 0.49% 125.26% 43 up up up
EWM (MSCI Malaysia) 10.98 -0.81% 4.63% 17 down up up
EWS (MSCI Singapore) 11.22 -2.52% 40.05% 21 down down up
EWT (MSCI Taiwan) 12.73 -2.08% 27.11% 19 down up up
EWY (MSCI South Korea) 49.00 -0.97% 62.72% 4 down up up
FXI (FSTE China) 39.61 -3.72% 150.03% 8 down down up
IF (Indonesia Fund) 9.88 -2.37% 52.58% 14 down down up
IFN (India Fund) 30.80 -3.51% 91.22% 20 down up up
VNM (Vietnam) 24.58 -4.43% 111.31% 7 down down down
Emerging Markets Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EEM (MSCI Emerging Mkts) 40.51 -3.02% 120.95% 3 down down up
EWX (Emerging Small Caps) 47.65 -2.97% 115.03% 20 down up up
GAF (Middle East & Africa) 61.35 -2.48% 76.79% 13 down down up
GMF (Emerging Asia Pacific) 72.48 -2.94% 69.24% 21 down down up
GML (Emerging Latin America) 75.29 -4.32% 43.63% 0 down down up
GUR (Emerging Europe) 44.55 -3.74% 109.02% 8 down up up
Alternative Assets
Commodities Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
COW (Livestock) 28.71 -0.86% -57.44% 42 up up up
DBA (Agriculture) 26.13 0.00% 3.74% 45 down down up
DBB (Base Metals) 21.96 -1.44% 144.30% 36 down up up
DBC (Commodities) 23.77 -1.25% 23.17% 10 down down up
GLD (Gold) 107.38 -1.43% 24.88% 35 down down up
JJC (Copper) 45.15 -1.85% 53.64% 17 down up up
JJG (Grains) 37.00 0.98% 32.21% 94 down down down
PTM (Platinum) 19.07 -1.95% 80.98% 11 down up up
SLV (Silver) 17.07 -2.85% 20.31% 10 down down up
UGA (Gasoline) 35.13 -2.71% 26.39% 6 down down up
UNG (Natural Gas) 10.08 1.61% -13.10% 49 down up down
USO (Oil) 37.24 -1.72% 16.99% 11 down down up
Forex Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
BZF (Brazilian Real) 25.71 -0.85% 28.06% 42 down down up
CEW (Emerging Currency) 22.00 -0.50% -61.03% 12 down down up
CYB (Chinese Yuan) 25.28 0.00% 2.99% 40 lateral lateral lateral
DBV (G10 Currencies) 23.24 -1.11% -37.17% 12 down down up
FXA (Australian Dollar) 90.37 -0.69% -14.94% 2 down down up
FXB (British Pound) 161.49 -0.53% 11.39% 56 up down up
FXC (Canadian Dollar) 94.75 -0.45% 53.19% 10 down up up
FXE (Euro) 140.70 -0.06% -11.51% 57 down down up
FXF (Swiss Franc) 95.52 0.24% 45.13% 85 down down up
FXM (Mexican Peso) 77.30 -1.55% 3.57% 0 down down up
FXY (Japanese Yen) 109.79 0.96% -6.92% 87 up down up
ICN (Indian Rupee) 25.38 -0.08% -44.52% 60 down up up
UUP (U.S. Dollar) 23.12 0.00% 20.42% 47 up up down
XRU (Russian Ruble) 33.27 -0.73% -94.00% 24 up down up
Bonds Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
AGG (Investment Grade) 104.40 0.03% -25.19% 34 up down up
BWX (Int’l Tsy Bonds) 56.93 0.48% -39.92% 82 down down up
EMB (Emerging Markets Bonds) 102.35 -0.18% 2.55% 33 down up up
HYG (Hi Yld Corp) 87.60 -1.56% 133.40% 0 down up up
IEF (7-10 Yr Tsy) 90.53 0.37% -29.47% 87 up down down
JNK (Hi Yld Bonds) 38.99 -1.61% 161.40% 5 down up up
MBB (Mortgage Bonds) 107.33 0.08% -45.19% 55 up up up
MUB (Nat’l Muni Bond) 103.34 0.10% 11.20% 55 up up up
SHY (1-3 Yr Tsy) 83.52 0.08% 65.71% 92 up down down
TIP (Tsy Inflation Protect) 105.24 0.14% -18.24% 61 up up up
TLT (20 Yr+ Tsy) 92.16 0.46% 37.81% 75 up down down
WIP (Int’l Inflation Protect) 56.21 0.05% -10.09% 55 down down up
Real Estate Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
FIO (Industrial Office) 23.37 -3.27% -54.39% 1 down up up
ICF (Cohen & Steers) 51.13 -2.94% 169.30% 7 down up up
ITB (Home Construction) 12.43 -2.63% -62.91% 0 down up up
IYR (DJ US Real Estate) 44.83 -2.84% 127.29% 5 down up up
REM (Mortgage Reits) 14.74 -0.87% 94.55% 26 down down up
REZ (Residential Index) 30.19 -2.36% -19.10% 4 down up up
RTL (Retail Index) 20.90 -3.55% 139.75% 0 down up up
XHB (Homebuilders) 15.23 -2.06% -2.13% 7 down up up

*PMI measures strength of % daily trading range on scale of 0 to 100

**ST = Short-Term Trend; MT = Intermediate Trend; LT = Long-Term or Primary Trend

***Vol% measures % change in daily volume vs. average daily volume
Market Momentum Diary: 01-21-2010

% Stocks > Mov Avg 20-Day MA 50-Day MA 200-Day MA
Today 44.51% 66.85% 83.30%
Yesterday 60.34% 76.11% 85.69%
Last Week 76.17% 83.48% 86.89%
Last Month 67.13% 65.48% 84.08%
Daily Market Stats NYSE NASDAQ
Advancers 635 655
Decliners 2451 2051
Advancing Shares 889977900 918096000
Declining Shares 6135884500 1960892300
52 Week New Highs 240 31
52 Week New Lows 4 13

Hillbent Market Direction Resources

Disclosures: Hillbent does not provide individualized market advice. The information we publish regards companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and our reports reflect our sincere opinions. Nevertheless, they are not intended to be personalized recommendations to buy, hold, or sell securities. Investments in the securities markets, and especially in options, are speculative and involve substantial risk. Each individual investor should determine their respective appropriate level of risk. It is recommended that you seek personal advice from your professional investment advisor and conduct further independent due diligence research before acting on information published in any of our reports. Most of our information is derived directly from information published by the companies on which we report and/or from other sources we deem to be reliable, without our independent verification.

Therefore, we cannot assure the completeness or accuracy of information contained within these reports and we do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action which you take in reliance on our statements.

Hillbent.com, Inc. or its affiliates may own positions in the equities mentioned in our reports. We do not receive any compensation from any of the companies covered in our reports.

Source: ETF Market Trends: Prop Trading to Prop Up Bank Profits No More?