“Administrative” issues were blamed for Friday’s disappointing weekly jobs numbers, which showed a 36,000 rise in initial claims to 482,000. Continuing claims continued its steadily downward trend (on a seasonally adjusted basis, of course).
In past recessions, a continuous fall in continuing claims was a reliable indicator of the beginning of a new expansion. We aren’t saying it’s different this time, just that the data set has changed. As we’ve mentioned before, the duration of unemployment is significantly longer than it’s ever been (since we started measuring), reaching an average of 29.1 weeks in December. Considering that basic unemployment insurance only runs for 26 weeks, it’s not surprising to see continuing claims falling as more people are expiring these benefits before finding a new job.
A new category of claims was created in June of 2008, when the Emergency Unemployment Compensation 2008 program was established. It has since been adjusted several times: expanded on 11/21/08, extended on 2/17/09, and expanded again on 11/6/09. Most headlines still focus primarily on initial and continuing claims, but plenty of observers have been watching emergency claims, noting its growth as unemployed workers roll into this new category.
It appears that it won’t be long before there are more emergency claimants than continuing claimants. Since emergency claims are only given to us in non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) form, that is the way we show both kinds of claims below (click to enlarge). Continuing claims follows an obvious seasonal pattern, but emergency claims marches to its own drum.
And because we know you’re curious, we’ve provided the pretty stacked area graph for you, also in NSA form.
The current iteration of the emergency benefits program provides for up to 73 weeks of unemployment insurance for certain claimants, depending on when they file for benefits. We are now over 100 weeks into the recession, if it’s still officially going, of course.
