David Fry's Daily Market Outlook

DOH!!

You may not be old enough to remember the original "DOH" guy (James Finlayson) from many Laurel and Hardy movies and skits, but he was a favorite character back then. His pic is here since it represents typical reaction to another day when market action defied poor economic news. The Fed's review of economic conditions revealed "...a distinct slowdown in housing with the majority of Fed's 12 regions reporting lower asking prices for homes, a softening in sales and rising inventories of unsold homes." Bearish? Not on your life!

Today showed evidence of a further short-squeeze. One "tell" in that department is the out-performance "today" of NASDAQ 100 Trust Shares ETF (QQQQ) vs. PowerShares Dynamic OTC Portfolio ETF (PWO) with the latter having a higher beta and more upside potential during rallies.

The stock market rally is "finally" spreading to other sectors previously ignored.

Overseas markets are behaving well.

Based on emails we receive there are lots of ticked-off bears who've got their "DOH!" faces on. Many believe markets are being grossly manipulated by the Fed and Treasury to ramp prices higher before the election. While the government may be, through various open market operations, adding much liquidity to prop markets, it's not profitable to fight the tape.

Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains positions in: iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF (IYR), S&P 500 Index (SPY), PowerShares Dynamic OTC Portfolio ETF (PWO), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), PowerShares Zacks Small Cap (PZJ), PowerShares Zacks Micro Cap (PZI), PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), iShares S&P Europe 350 Index (IEV), iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index (ILF), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI), iShares MSCI Mexico Index ETF (EWW), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Malaysia Index (EWM) and India Fund Inc. (IFN).

Comments

[Ricardo Arroja:]

David, great role as Devil's advocate. You know, I agree with all the thesis going around about current market manipulation and you're great at showing us how it's happening. BUT, please, give us also a couple of investment alternatives or ways to make money.

Badmouthing the market's rise doesn't generate any kind of alpha if you can't profit from it. I really enjoy this column but the argument is becoming repetitive. If you don't come up with some way to make money, and I'm not talking about relinquishing your bear view, people will stop reading you soon.

2006 Oct 13 12:16 PM

[David Fry:]

Ricardo, we have a subscription newsletter and subscribers pay for the information you desire.

Thanks for your kinds words.

Dave

2006 Oct 17 09:50 AM