There's an interesting article by Dominic Frisby in MoneyWeek about Venezuela’s currency devaluation its relation to gold prices.
Gold bugs are forever telling you to buy gold because it is ‘nobody else’s liability’. It’s become one of those hackneyed phrases that has almost lost its meaning.
But recent events in Venezuela give us a nice illustration of what that phrase really means. And there’s a stark, but important message for savers everywhere.
Inflation is currently running at 27% in Venezuela. That’s just the official figure. You can expect the real number to be considerably higher.
Earlier this month, the Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, devalued the bolivar by half, from 2.15 per US dollar to 4.30 per dollar. There will be a second peg, subsidised by the government, of 2.60 bolivars per dollar for essential imports such as food, medicine and machinery.
This devaluation has effectively doubled the cost of imported goods and halved the Venezuelan people’s purchasing power in a single stroke. Savers – though I doubt there are that many given the country’s precarious situation – will have had half of their wealth effectively wiped out overnight.
Chavez is doing it, he said on state TV, ‘to boost the productive economy, to reduce imports that aren’t strictly necessary and to stimulate exports.’ But that won’t be the effect. All his actions will do is discourage people from working at all. Leaving aside the moral issue of whether government should have the power to do that (and, largely speaking, with our modern system of money and credit, they do), many Venezuelans will now ask themselves: ‘What is the point of my working at all, if the proceeds are going to be devalued so suddenly?’
You can read the entire article on MoneyWeek.
So why should you care?
If you invest in US companies that do business with Venezuela, then your portfolio returns will definitely be adversely impacted. US companies that do business with Venezuela like Haliburton (HAL) are likely to feel the impact of this currency devaluation. Haliburton CEO just announced that they may face a $30 million loss in the 1st quarter because of this.
While I liquidated almost my entire stock portfolio at the market open this morning (including Harvest Natural Resources which does business in Venezuela), I’m still keeping my gold and silver coins. Talking about the market, it has risen 50% since the March lows of last year. I might even go short some weaker stocks on any market bounces too.