This new global investments report tallied results from here verified by Yahoo Finance for dividend paying American depository receipts for small, medium & large cap shares (ADSs) as of market closing prices November 12 against analyst mean target price results one year hence. The comparison found two Brazilian firms producing 86.93% to 139.89% price upsides next year.
Oi SA (OIBR) a diversified communication services firm in the technology sector with 86.93% showed the lower upside of the two. At the top, Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID) a steel & iron firm in the basic materials sector forged a 133.89% upside to lead the November global dogs. Seven more global dogs back in the pack showed 5.2% to 32.92% price upsides.
On the downside, one stock exhibited a pending price slump of 11.57% based on 1 yr. analyst mean target pricing. Xueda Education Group (XUE) a China based education & training service measured 11.57% to the downside to tempt hungry bears.
The charts above used one year mean target price set by brokerage analysts matched against November 12 closing price to compare ten sector stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2014 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
This report presumed yield (dividend / price) dividend dog methodology applied to any sector and compared that sector side by side with the Dow industrial index leaders. Below, the Arnold global selections for November were disclosed step by step.
Dog Metrics Measured Ten Top Global Stocks
Ten top global dividend stocks that showed the biggest dividend yields November 12 per Yahoo Finance data represented four sectors: technology; financial; services; basic materials. Top dog, Oi SA [Brazil] was best of two technology sector dogs which included Portugal Telecom S.A.. (PT) in fourth place. The best of four financial firms, Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. [Chile] (PVD) placed second. The other three financials placed fifth, sixth, and tenth: Alto Palermo S.A. [Argentina] (APSA); Banco Santander, S.A. [Spain] (SAN). The best of two services firms, Xueda Education Group [China] placed third while Fly Leasing Ltd. [Ireland] (FLY) was ninth. Two basic materials representatives, Companhia Siderurgica Nacional [Chile] and Ecopetrol SA [Colombia] (EC) placed eighth and ninth to complete the top ten global dogs by yield.
Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs
The graph below of relative strengths of the top ten global dogs by yield as of market close 11/12/2013 compared to those of the Dow industrials index was prepared to show projected annual dividend history from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the ten highest yielding stocks along with the total single share price of those ten stocks with the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividends.
Actionable Conclusion (1): Global Dogs Bearish While Dow Dogs Were Bullish
Global dividend payers as of November 12 showed increased dividend from $10k invested as $1k in each of the top ten stocks, while aggregate single share price of those ten plummeted. Dividend rose at a rate of over 4% after October while total single share price dropped early 6% for that period.
For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, projected annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten Dow dogs dropped over 2%% since October 31, while aggregate single share price jumped up nearly 12%. The Dow dogs overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten grew some. The overhang was $125 or 33% in August, and expanded to $161 or 43% for September, shrank down to $111 or 30% for October, and expanded again to $171 or 47'% as of November 11. Most of this bull rally was triggered by Procter & Gamble (PG) replacing Microsoft (MSFT) in the top ten Dow dogs this past month.
To quantify the top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential and so were added to the simple high yield "dog" metric used to dig out bargains.
Actionable Conclusion (2): Wall Street Wizards Wisdom Wished 21.9% 1 yr. Net Gain from Top 20 MoPay SML Dogs
Top 20 dogs on the Global stock list were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of November 12, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $20,000 invested as $1k in each of the highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividend graphed from the plus row in the chart below exhibiting the over 22% net gain.
Factoring in a 0.36.5% loss from the negative net stock introduced above, a net gain of 21.98% results.
Yahoo projected an over 10% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase by nearly 6% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were not applied (n/a).
A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock price movement opposite of market direction.
Actionable Conclusion (3): Analysts Forecast 2014 Global DiviDogs to Net 8% to 139%
Only four of the ten top dividend yielding utilities dogs were verified as being among the nine gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy for this sector as graded by Wall St. wizards was 44% accurate.
Nine probable profit generating trades were revealed by Thompson/First Call in Yahoo Finance for 2014:
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional netted $1,392.96, based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 78% greater than the market as a whole.
Oi SA netted $1,006.14 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 81% more than the market as a whole.
Compania Vale Do Rio (VALE) netted $365.06 based on estimates from twenty-four analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 36% more than the market as a whole.
Ecopetrol SA netted $230.13 based on estimates from thirteen analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 19% less than the market as a whole.
Fly Leasing Ltd. netted $203.31 based on estimates from six analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 41% less than the market as a whole.
STMicroelectronics (STM) netted $196.11, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from seven analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 57% more than the market as a whole.
Giant Interactive Group. (GA) netted $127.94 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from ten analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 1.14% more than the market as a whole.
Total S.A. (TOT) netted $98.92 based on estimates from eight analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 25% less than the market as a whole.
BCE Inc. (BCE) netted $84.27 based on estimates from fourteen analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 2% less than the market as a whole.
TECO Energy, Inc. (TE) netted $60.16 based on estimates from twelve analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 59% less than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was 41% on $1k invested in each of these nine Global dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 25% more than the market as a whole.
Actionable Conclusion (4): (Bear Alert) Analysts Forecast 1 Global DiviDog Plotted Net Losses of 3.65% By November 2014
The probable losing trade revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2014 was:
Xueda Education Group lost $36.53, based on dividend and mean target price estimates from three analysts including $20 of broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 152% greater than the market as a whole.
The net gain and loss estimates above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of dividends from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible starting points for your Global dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.