Results from Yahoo Finance tallied for Russell 2000 Index members as of market closing prices November 15 were compared to analyst mean target price projections one year hence. The resulting chart below showcased four stocks recording 13% to 30% price upsides.
Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (NASDAQ:HRZN) a specialty finance company based in Farmington, CT showed the low 13.04% price upside of the four. KCAP Financial (NASDAQ:KCAP), a diversified investments financial sector firm from New York showed the second lowest 16.07% upside. Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation (NYSE:ANH) the Santa Monica, CA based diversified REIT from the financial sector exhibited a nearly top 16.82% price upside. However that falling knife, Atlantic Power Corporation (NYSE:AT) the infamous electric utility loved by bears and analysts but despised by stockholders, showed 30.3% to lead the Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks in 1 yr target price upside. Six other members of the Russ 2K index back in the pack showed 4.73% to 12.28% price upsides.
The chart above used the one year mean target price set by brokerage analysts matched against November 15 closing price to compare ten sector stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2014 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
This article reported results of the Russell 2000 Index as one in a series of index-specific articles devoted to dividend yield and price upside results. Seeking Alpha reader requests prompted this series of index-specific articles reporting dividend yield plus price upside results for several stock indices: Dow 30; Russell 2000; S&P 500; S&P Aristocrats; Russell 1000; NASDAQ 100; Champions; Contenders; Challengers; Carnevale's Power 25 & Super 29 lists combined as his Solid 40.
This report presumed yield (dividend / price) dividend dog methodology applied to any index and compared that index side by side with the Dow. Below, the Arnold Russell 2000 Index top dog selections for November were disclosed step by step.
Dog Metrics Screened Russell 2000 Index Stocks
Russell Investments states:
"The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.
The Russell 2000 Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set."
Ten stocks in this index promising the biggest yields in November represented only the financial sector. Resource Capital (NYSE:RSO) led these. Second through tenth places were filled by: (2) Dynex Capital, Inc. (NYSE:DX); (3) KCAP Financial ; (4) ZAIS Financial Corporation; (5) Prospect Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:PSEC); (6) Fifth Street Finance Corp. (NYSE:FSC); (7) TICC Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:TICC); (8) BlackRock Kelso Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:BKCC); (9) Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation ; (10) MCG Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:MCGC) completed the Russell 2000 top ten dogs.
Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs
Below is a graph of the relative strengths of the top ten Russell 2000 dogs by yield as of market close 11/15/2013 compared to those of the Dow. Projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividend.
Actionable Conclusion (1): Russell 2K Top Dogs Bearish as Dow Chased Bulls
The November Russell 2000 collection of dividend payers resumed a bearish price course. In the past month Russell 2000 top ten dog annual dividend from 10k invested as $1k in each dog increased 1.5% while aggregate single share price of the ten dropped nearly 20%.
For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, projected annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten Dow dogs dropped over 1.1% since October, while aggregate single share price jumped up nearly 5.3%. The Dow dogs overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten grew some. The overhang was $125 or 33% in August, and expanded to $161 or 43% for September, shrank down to $111 or 30% for October, and expanded again to $140 or 38'% as of November 14. Most of this bull rally was triggered by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) replacing Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) in the top ten Dow dogs this past month.
To quantify the top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential and was added to the simple high yield "dog" metric used to dig out bargains.
Actionable Conclusion (2): Wall St. Wizards Want 16% Net Gain from Top 20 Russell 2000 Dogs By 2014
Top twenty dogs from the Russell 2000 index were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of November 15, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.
Historical prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividends.
Yahoo projected over 6.6% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase nearly 6.5% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid estimate.
A beta (risk) ranking for each analyst rated stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta numbers indicated the degree of a stocks movement opposed to market direction.
Actionable Conclusion (3): Analysts Predict 10 Russell 2000 DiviDogs to Net 13.6% to 38.2% By November 2014
Six of the top dividend yielding Russell 2000 dogs were verified as being among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy as graded by Wall St. wizards is 60% accurate.
Ten probable profit generating trades revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2014 were:
Atlantic Power Corporation netted $382.14 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 65% less than the market as a whole.
KCAP Financial netted $263.44 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from three analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 46% greater than the market as a whole.
Anworth Mortgage Asset netted $255.78, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from seven analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 77% less than the market as a whole.
Fifth Street Finance Corp netted $219.62 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from nine analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 18% less than the market as a whole.
Horizon Technology Finance Corporation netted $210.43 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 58% less than the market as a whole.
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE:PMT) netted $205.01 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from ten analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 32% less than the market as a whole.
Dynex Capital, Inc. netted $190.71 based on a mean target price estimate from eight analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 14% less than the market as a whole.
Medley Capital Corporation (NYSE:MCC) netted $151.17 based on a mean target price estimate from twelve analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 58% less than the market as a whole.
MCG Capital Corporation netted $140.34 based on estimates from three analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 21% greater than the market as a whole.
BlackRock Kelso Capital Corporation netted $136.68, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate by seven analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 19% greater than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was over 21.5% on $1k invested in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 24% less than the market as a whole.
Net gain estimates above did not factor-in any tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
The stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your index dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Disclosure: I am long AT, HRZN, FSC, GE, INTC, MCD, MSFT, PFE, T, VZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.