Freeport McMoran & Gold (NYSE:FCX) probably represents the "early cycle recovery, weak dollar" story in 2009 better than any other stock. It was to 2009 what oil was to 2007. Despite 5 year highs in copper inventories, and 1 country doing just about all the marginal buying - speculators rushed in and FCX is definitely an institutional plaything. This is a very well-run company but much like US Steel (NYSE:X) yesterday it is experiencing a Demon Drop.
More than any stock, this is the one I will be watching for a "bounce". It sits right at its 200 day moving average so this would be a logical area to lead an oversold move in its bretheren. US Steel is in a similar spot and is holding in very well considering the damage today. Let's see what HAL9000 does with FCX here. but this is a very attractive risk/reward long play (with tight stop) for those with short term trading time frames. The intermediate term situation is not that promising, but a relief rally could lead to some 'fast money' if the market continues this bounce (9 S&P points off the bottom already). I can hear Larry Summers sweating from here as his fingers push "buy buy buy" (allegedly)
Author's Disclosure: No position