ETF Market Trends: A Suspicious Rally, But We'll Take It

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Includes: AGG, BBH, CEW, DIA, EEM, EWG, EWQ, EWS, EWT, EWU, EWX, EWY, FNIO, FXC, FXI, FXY, GLD, GMF, GUR, ICN, IEV, ITB, IWM, OIH, QQQ, REM, RSX, RTL, SMH, SPY, SWH, TIP, TLT, UNG, USO, VGK, VMW, VXX, XHB, XLF, XLK, XLP, XLU
by: J Clinton Hill

Market Direction Summary (02-01-2010)

Dow-30 +118.20 @ 10185.53; S&P 500 +15.32 @ 1089.19; Nasdaq 100 +19.68 @ 1760.72; Russell 2k +7.21 @ 609.25; VIX -2.03 @ 22.59; U.S. Dollar Index -0.30 @ 79.17; 10 Year Tsy Rates +0.45 @ 36.54; Crude Oil +2.30 @ 74.95; Gold +23.40 @ 1105.20; CRB +2.39 @ 267.98; DJ-U.S. Real Estate Index +3.07 @ 171.90

No comments this evening

Price Volume Analysis…

The dominant price volume relationship for Monday’s trading was distribution (55% price up & volume down) and makes me a bit suspicious of this young rally.

A win is a win in the history books, but expanding volume is the sort of stuff that creates momentum and sustainability. The lack of it shows that many investors are not yet fully committed to buying these dips at this stage of the game.

ETF New Highs & Lows

ETF 5 Day New Highs: (Note * denotes 250 day new high)

  • U.S. Equities (RSX, EWH, FXI, GAF, GUR)
  • International Equities (N/A)
  • Commodities (NYSEARCA:PTM)
  • Forex (CYB, UUP)
  • Bonds (AGG, MBB, SHY, TIP, TLT)
  • Real Estate (ITB, REM, XHB)

ETF 5 Day New Lows: (Note * denotes 250 day new low)

  • U.S. Equities (VXX, XLU, XLV, IHI)
  • International Equities (EWC, EWW, EWZ, ILF, ISI, EWG, EWQ, EWU, IEV, VGK, EWA, EWJ, EWY, GAF, GML)
  • Commodities (CWO, DBA)
  • Forex (FXA, FXB, FXY, XRU)
  • Bonds (AGG, BXW, EMB, HYG, IEF, JNK, MBB, MUB, SHY, TLT)
  • Real Estate (N/A)

Closing Comments

Should the market continue to rally from its extremely short-term oversold condition, which I previously mentioned as a possibility, then caution should be used as it approaches levels of resistance.

Unless it can be reversed, the breakdown in the intermediate downtrend really increases the potential for further downside risks and volatility.

Signing off at Hillbent on The Market Direction and ETF Market Trends™…

ETF Market Trends Monitor (02-01-2010)

U.S. Equity ETFs
Equity Indexes Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
DIA (DJ Industrials) 101.84 1.28% 8.77% 60 down down up
SPY (S&P 500) 109.06 1.56% 29.05% 99 down down up
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) 43.26 1.10% 55.43% 95 down down up
IWM (Russell 2000) 60.82 1.18% 17.54% 85 down down up
VXX (VIX Futures) 30.16 -4.68% -14.18% 10 up down down
Major Sectors Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
IYZ (Telecom) 18.41 1.04% -25.99% 83 down down up
XLB (Materials) 31.31 3.88% 103.33% 97 down down up
XLE (Energy) 56.30 3.30% 38.57% 99 down down up
XLF (Financials) 14.43 1.76% 54.29% 97 down down up
XLI (Industrials) 27.79 1.50% 94.93% 97 down down up
XLK (Technology) 21.20 1.15% 85.19% 75 down down up
XLP (Consumer Staples) 26.43 0.88% 29.11% 90 down down up
XLU (Utilities) 29.72 0.64% -23.22% 95 down down up
XLV (Health Care) 31.45 0.54% -16.17% 71 down up up
XLY (Consumer Discrtn) 29.28 1.28% 85.87% 100 down down up
Key Industries Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
BBH (Biotech) 102.35 -0.17% -10.26% 48 up up up
CRBQ (Global Commodities) 40.44 2.28% -39.43% 69 down down n/a
CUT (Global Timber) 17.18 2.57% -58.70% 89 down down up
FAA (Airlines) 30.67 2.51% -83.28% 100 down up up
FAN (Global Wind Energy) 13.85 1.47% -76.36% 57 down down down
FDN (DJ Internet Index) 23.59 0.64% -37.94% 86 down down up
GDX (Gold Miners) 42.94 5.45% 41.95% 99 down down down
HAP (Hard Assets Producers) 32.03 2.89% 290.96% 91 down down up
IAI (Broker-Dealers) 26.57 1.80% 120.67% 69 down down up
IGF (Global Infrastructure) 33.52 1.92% -23.89% 82 down down up
IGN (GSTI Networking) 25.59 1.47% 0.60% 85 down down up
IHI (Medical Devices) 53.21 0.45% 31.64% 84 down up up
ITA (Aerospace & Defense) 51.41 1.34% -16.08% 97 down up up
IYT (Transportation) 71.24 1.67% 11.35% 91 down down up
KIE (Insurance) 35.69 1.19% -27.82% 83 down up up
KOL (Coal) 33.91 3.23% -21.23% 96 down down up
MOO (Agribusiness) 41.97 2.19% 90.82% 82 down down up
NLR (Nuclear Energy) 21.85 2.20% 44.19% 95 down down down
OIH (Oil Services) 122.40 3.83% 21.61% 100 down up up
PHO (Water Resources) 15.97 0.69% -28.24% 58 down down up
PPH (Pharmaceuticals) 66.02 0.62% -67.02% 62 down up up
PXR (Emerg Mkts Infrastructure) 40.58 1.81% -67.97% 43 down down up
RKH (Regional Banks) 80.67 1.26% 59.57% 78 up up up
RTH (Retail) 92.11 0.04% 13.53% 69 down down up
SEA (Global Shipping) 13.95 1.23% -12.31% 93 down up up
SLX (Steel) 57.73 5.91% 23.48% 98 down down up
SMH (Semiconductor) 25.30 2.18% -7.51% 81 down down up
SWH (Software) 40.02 0.98% -76.67% 100 down down up
TAN (Global Solar Energy) 9.02 2.85% -44.28% 89 down down up
XME (Metals & Mining) 48.81 5.72% 89.25% 94 down down up
International Equity ETFs
Americas Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EWC (MSCI Canada) 24.90 1.88% 47.32% 80 down down up
EWW (MSCI Mexico) 47.09 2.37% -36.50% 95 down down up
EWZ( MSCI Brazil) 67.58 4.47% 36.05% 93 down down up
ILF (Latin America 40) 44.15 3.59% 62.25% 95 down down up
ISI (S&P 1500) 49.02 1.32% 134.25% 91 down down up
Europe Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EWG (MSCI Germany) 20.74 1.97% -19.99% 71 down down up
EWQ (MSCI France) 24.32 2.06% 149.90% 14 down down up
EWU (United Kingdom) 15.51 0.52% 171.26% 0 down down up
IEV (S&P Europe 350) 37.21 2.25% -34.68% 96 down down up
RSX (Russia) 32.08 3.22% 1.77% 100 down up up
VGK (Vanguard Europe) 46.54 2.42% -7.76% 88 down down up
Asian-Pacific Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EWA (MSCI Australia) 21.58 2.27% 47.65% 92 down down up
EWH (MSCI Hong Kong) 15.03 2.73% 100.76% 95 down down up
EWJ (MSCI Japan) 9.94 1.02% 29.02% 67 down up up
EWM (MSCI Malaysia) 10.62 0.66% -33.75% 100 down down up
EWS (MSCI Singapore) 10.94 1.48% -1.78% 100 down down up
EWT (MSCI Taiwan) 12.06 -0.08% 40.70% 63 down down up
EWY (MSCI South Korea) 46.53 2.40% 5.75% 93 down down up
FXI (FSTE China) 39.56 3.13% 71.65% 90 down down up
IF (Indonesia Fund) 9.67 2.00% -45.55% 95 down down up
IFN (India Fund) 29.35 1.59% 0.03% 65 down down up
VNM (Vietnam) 25.30 3.48% -45.46% 100 down down down
Emerging Markets Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EEM (MSCI Emerging Mkts) 39.31 2.69% 43.18% 95 down down up
EWX (Emerging Small Caps) 46.00 1.97% -6.61% 100 down down up
GAF (Middle East & Africa) 61.02 1.97% 82.57% 70 down down up
GMF (Emerging Asia Pacific) 69.48 1.49% -51.63% 42 down down up
GML (Emerging Latin America) 73.01 3.19% 0.92% 71 down down up
GUR (Emerging Europe) 44.43 3.98% 19.07% 80 down up up
Alternative Assets
Commodities Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
COW (Livestock) 27.41 -1.83% 181.86% 21 down down down
DBA (Agriculture) 25.26 -0.16% -25.77% 13 down down down
DBB (Base Metals) 20.15 1.77% 56.67% 83 down down up
DBC (Commodities) 23.24 2.42% 38.85% 100 down down up
GLD (Gold) 108.35 2.26% -19.62% 94 down down up
JJC (Copper) 42.39 2.12% 22.28% 96 down down up
JJG (Grains) 35.35 0.68% 13.76% 29 down down down
PTM (Platinum) 18.51 2.95% -15.48% 84 down up up
SLV (Silver) 16.36 2.89% 6.35% 93 down down up
UGA (Gasoline) 34.09 1.19% -29.30% 79 down down up
UNG (Natural Gas) 9.80 5.26% 7.62% 75 down up down
USO (Oil) 36.72 3.03% -7.28% 99 down down up
Forex Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
BZF (Brazilian Real) 25.28 2.93% -37.19% 97 down down up
CEW (Emerging Currency) 21.75 0.00% -78.88% 20 down down up
CYB (Chinese Yuan) 25.32 -0.04% 20.93% 100 lateral lateral lateral
DBV (G10 Currencies) 23.13 0.57% -36.68% 76 down down up
FXA (Australian Dollar) 89.15 0.74% 0.02% 95 down down up
FXB (British Pound) 159.10 -0.15% 16.80% 92 down down up
FXC (Canadian Dollar) 93.79 0.64% 20.36% 96 down down up
FXE (Euro) 139.07 0.49% -21.12% 97 down down down
FXF (Swiss Franc) 94.24 0.46% -12.06% 100 down down up
FXM (Mexican Peso) 77.64 1.56% 2.73% 95 down up up
FXY (Japanese Yen) 109.46 -0.45% -28.17% 40 down down up
ICN (Indian Rupee) 25.30 -0.55% -47.12% 83 down up up
UUP (U.S. Dollar) 23.34 -0.47% -18.76% 0 up up down
XRU (Russian Ruble) 32.52 -1.27% 76.70% 100 down down up
Bonds Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
AGG (Investment Grade) 104.18 -0.14% -32.17% 19 down down up
BWX (Int’l Tsy Bonds) 55.93 0.17% 105.14% 10 down down up
EMB (Emerging Markets Bonds) 100.74 -0.01% -33.70% 22 down down up
HYG (Hi Yld Corp) 85.98 0.48% 33.43% 52 down down up
IEF (7-10 Yr Tsy) 90.10 -0.33% 21.75% 41 down down down
JNK (Hi Yld Bonds) 38.63 0.25% 3.29% 50 down down up
MBB (Mortgage Bonds) 107.07 -0.06% 1.41% 22 up up up
MUB (Nat’l Muni Bond) 102.85 0.03% 135.19% 81 down up up
SHY (1-3 Yr Tsy) 83.50 -0.04% 25.12% 78 up down down
TIP (Tsy Inflation Protect) 105.24 -0.04% -11.18% 83 up up up
TLT (20 Yr+ Tsy) 91.15 -0.91% 13.09% 15 down down down
WIP (Int’l Inflation Protect) 55.28 0.95% -51.33% 77 down down up
Real Estate Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
FIO (Industrial Office) 22.89 1.96% 124.18% 86 down down up
ICF (Cohen & Steers) 50.31 2.01% 51.72% 85 down down up
ITB (Home Construction) 12.36 0.16% -83.23% 65 down up up
IYR (DJ US Real Estate) 44.22 1.82% -8.21% 87 down down up
REM (Mortgage Reits) 14.61 -0.03% 451.69% 13 down down up
REZ (Residential Index) 29.73 0.88% 45.93% 37 down down up
RTL (Retail Index) 20.35 -0.02% -60.00% 100 down down up
XHB (Homebuilders) 15.21 0.66% -1.39% 67 down up up
Click to enlarge

*PMI measures strength of % daily trading range on scale of 0 to 100

**ST = Short-Term Trend; MT = Intermediate Trend; LT = Long-Term or Primary Trend

***Vol% measures % change in daily volume vs. average daily volume
Market Momentum Diary: 02-01-2010

% Stocks > Mov Avg 20-Day MA 50-Day MA 200-Day MA
Today 28.11% 48.71% 78.38%
Yesterday 23.91% 43.54% 76.25%
Last Week 33.70% 56.13% 81.56%
Last Month 69.61% 73.78% 84.56%
Daily Market Stats NYSE NASDAQ
Advancers 2434 1716
Decliners 643 985
A/D Ratio 3.79 1.74
Advancing Shares 3816761800 1816461800
Declining Shares 446991800 413432300
A/D Shares Ratio 8.54 4.39
Vol % Chg -34% -28%
Vol % Chg vs. Avg -12% -7%
52 Week New Highs 89 23
52 Week New Lows 7 1
% Stocks Uptrend ST MT LT
Hillbent 3000 15.83% 42.57% 82.27%
Click to enlarge

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