Logical Thought
Hedge fund manager, long/short equity, growth at reasonable price, value

Pain Therapeutics: Very Substantial Risk-Adjusted Upside Vs. Downside

Pain Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:PTIE) is a drug development company that will collect roughly a 20% U.S. royalty and a 10% foreign royalty on what I estimate to be $1.4 billion/year in sales if Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) obtains FDA approval for PTIE's tamperproof (i.e., unattractive to drug addicts) extended release form of oxycodone called Remoxy. Oxycontin -- Purdue Pharma's version of the drug -- does $2.4 billion in U.S. sales and around $400 million more overseas; I think Pfizer - with its superior marketing muscle - should be able to grab at least 50% of that. [DURECT Corporation (NASDAQ:DRRX) will also collect a royalty -- a considerably smaller one than PTIE's -- from Pfizer on sales...

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