ETF Market Trends: Earnings Take Center Stage as Employment Waits in the Wings

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 |  Includes: AGG, BBH, CEW, DIA, EEM, EWG, EWQ, EWS, EWT, EWU, EWX, EWY, FNIO, FXC, FXI, FXY, GLD, GMF, GUR, ICN, IEV, ITB, IWM, OIH, QQQ, REM, RSX, RTL, SMH, SPY, SWH, TIP, TLT, UNG, USO, VGK, VMW, VXX, XHB, XLF, XLK, XLP, XLU
by: J Clinton Hill

Market Direction Summary (02-02-2010)

Dow-30 +111.32 @ 10296.85; S&P 500 +14.13 @ 1103.32; Nasdaq 100 +16.20 @ 1776.92; Russell 2k +4.80 @ 614.05; VIX -1.11 @ 21.48; U.S. Dollar Index -0.17 @ 79.00; 10 Year Tsy Rates -0.19 @ 36.35; Crude Oil +2.05 @ 77.00; Gold +9.10 @ 1114.30; CRB +5.21 @ 273.19; DJ-U.S. Real Estate Index +2.88 @ 174.78

Yes, it really is earnings season. Refusing to be upstaged anymore by EU issues related to Greece’s sovereign debt problems or even Washington’s political haggling over regulatory reforms and economic recovery assistance programs, positive earnings results finally earned some respect from the market’s audience.

However, a slightly better than expected Pending Home Sales index (Dec-2009 actual @ 96.6 vs. Nov-2009 revised @ 95.4) played a supporting role. The just barely good enough housing results were more than good enough for the Global Timber Fund (NYSEARCA:CUT) and homebuilder exchange traded funds (i.e. XHB and ITB). In fact, Hillbent’s entire real estate ETF universe responded positively and experienced six short-term and three intermediate term trend upgrades. Overall volume increased significantly within this group (see below).

Commodities, having succumbed to renewed dollar strength and being extremely oversold, rebounded to be included amongst today’s top performers. Notable trend upgrades occurred for the DB Agriculture (NYSEARCA:DBA), DB Commodities (NYSEARCA:DBC), Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD), Platinum Fund (NYSEARCA:PTM).

Energy related ETFs, Gasoline Fund (NYSEARCA:UGA) and Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO), continued to move on the momentum created by yesterday’s better than expected gains in the ISM Manufacturing Index report.

DB Base Metals Fund (NYSEARCA:DBB) remains well below its short and intermediate trend resistance levels, but appears to have found support at its 38.2% retracement level. Acting as a bullish catalyst for industrial metals was January’s reported U.S. Vehicle sales at Ford (NYSE:F) being up an annualized 25%. DBB closed up 0.84% on surging volume.

Price Volume Analysis…

Although today’s dominant trading pattern was bullish (36% price up & volume up) and showed a definite improvement in morale, the breadth was hardly a cause for celebration.

Come on buyers… Let’s pump up the volume! We can’t hear you!

ETF New Highs & Lows…

ETF 5 Day New Highs: (Note * denotes 250 day new high)

  • U.S. Equities (DIA, SPY, IYZ, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLP, XLV, XLY, BBH, CUT, GDX, HAP, IGF, ITA, KIE, PPH, PXR, RKH, SLX)
  • International Equities (EWC, EWW, EWZ, ILF, ISI, EWG, IEV, RSX, VGK, EWH, EWJ, FXI, IFN, VNM, EEM, GAF, GML, GUR)
  • Commodities (DBA, DBC, GLD, PTM, SLV, UGA, UNG, USO)
  • Forex (BZF, CEW, FXC, FXM, XRU)
  • Bonds (N/A)
  • Real Estate (ICF, ITB, IYR, REM, REZ, RTL, XHB)

ETF 5 Day New Lows: (Note * denotes 250 day new low)

  • U.S. Equities (N/A)
  • International Equities (EWT)
  • Commodities (N/A)
  • Forex (NYSEARCA:FXA)
  • Bonds (BWX, EMB, JNK, TLT)
  • Real Estate (N/A)

Closing Comments…

The market, even after two consecutive days of positive performance, still remains widely oversold from a short-term perspective. This gives it plenty of stretching room should bulls decide to make a charge.

However, consensus estimates and actual results for the all important employment reports (ADP on Wednesday, Jobless Claims on Thursday, and Employment Situation on Friday) will overshadow the market as the trading week winds down to a conclusion.

In regards to earnings, there are 63 S&P 500 constituents reporting quarterly results over the next three days. Some that could help us connect the dots for a better macro-picture of the economy are consumer credit barometers: MasterCard (NYSE:MA) and Visa (NYSE:V); real estate bellwethers: CB Richard Ellis (NYSE:CBG), Simon Property (NYSE:SPG), Kimco Realty (NYSE:KIM), and Weyerhauser (NYSE:WY); international energy offshore driller: Diamond Offshore (NYSE:DO); and technology infrastructure leaders: Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), Akamai (NASDAQ:AKAM), Broadcom (BRCM), and Memc Electronic Materials (WFR).

Fasten your seatbelts, the rubber will begin to meet the road of the true Market Direction over the next three days!

Signing off at Hillbent on The Market Direction and ETF Market Trends™…

ETF Market Trends™ Monitor (02-02-2010)

U.S. Equity ETFs
Equity Indexes Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
DIA (DJ Industrials) 102.88 1.04% -17.00% 85 down down up
SPY (S&P 500) 110.38 1.21% 48.52% 88 down down up
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) 43.65 0.90% 25.68% 83 down down up
IWM (Russell 2000) 61.49 1.10% 37.50% 93 down up up
VXX (VIX Futures) 28.97 -3.78% 104.11% 13 up down down
Major Sectors Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
IYZ (Telecom) 18.66 1.09% -18.44% 75 down down up
XLB (Materials) 31.44 0.32% 88.72% 72 down down up
XLE (Energy) 57.05 1.31% 41.47% 92 down down up
XLF (Financials) 14.56 0.97% 34.33% 83 down down up
XLI (Industrials) 28.32 1.91% 146.33% 90 up up up
XLK (Technology) 21.41 0.99% 31.99% 81 down down up
XLP (Consumer Staples) 26.80 1.44% 6.40% 98 up up up
XLU (Utilities) 29.96 0.81% -24.79% 96 down down up
XLV (Health Care) 32.11 2.07% 28.18% 99 up up up
XLY (Consumer Discrtn) 29.69 1.40% 15.03% 98 up up up
Key Industries Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
BBH (Biotech) 103.78 1.42% -53.95% 99 up up up
CRBQ (Global Commodities) 41.43 1.42% -78.58% 94 down down n/a
CUT (Global Timber) 17.49 1.80% -69.87% 83 down down up
FAA (Airlines) 31.38 2.42% -63.06% 88 down up up
FAN (Global Wind Energy) 14.01 1.16% -2.85% 55 down down down
FDN (DJ Internet Index) 23.71 0.38% -4.20% 78 down down up
GDX (Gold Miners) 43.01 0.14% 46.88% 33 down down down
HAP (Hard Assets Producers) 32.40 1.15% -65.53% 78 down down up
IAI (Broker-Dealers) 26.75 0.72% 255.19% 40 down down up
IGF (Global Infrastructure) 33.63 1.49% -64.73% 22 down down up
IGN (GSTI Networking) 25.92 1.17% 46.98% 84 down down up
IHI (Medical Devices) 54.01 1.48% 13.05% 91 down up up
ITA (Aerospace & Defense) 52.29 1.71% -13.24% 94 down up up
IYT (Transportation) 71.89 0.84% -2.91% 94 down down up
KIE (Insurance) 36.40 1.99% 104.26% 96 up up up
KOL (Coal) 34.21 0.88% -19.92% 87 down down up
MOO (Agribusiness) 42.72 1.43% 15.86% 84 down down up
NLR (Nuclear Energy) 21.86 0.18% -50.47% 47 down down up
OIH (Oil Services) 123.47 0.88% 32.00% 75 down up up
PHO (Water Resources) 16.17 1.32% -19.47% 70 down down up
PPH (Pharmaceuticals) 67.37 2.04% -20.33% 89 up up up
PXR (Emerg Mkts Infrastructure) 41.47 0.87% -27.90% 83 down down up
RKH (Regional Banks) 80.73 0.07% 63.48% 53 up up up
RTH (Retail) 93.01 1.03% 25.94% 82 up down up
SEA (Global Shipping) 14.20 2.38% -31.94% 93 down up up
SLX (Steel) 58.88 1.89% 31.38% 92 down down up
SMH (Semiconductor) 25.59 1.15% 1.83% 71 down down up
SWH (Software) 40.37 0.92% -59.05% 88 down down up
TAN (Global Solar Energy) 9.15 1.55% -50.45% 75 down down up
XME (Metals & Mining) 49.54 1.35% 24.89% 88 down down up
International Equity ETFs
Americas Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EWC (MSCI Canada) 25.20 1.20% 5.61% 70 down down up
EWW (MSCI Mexico) 47.66 1.13% 8.12% 92 down down up
EWZ( MSCI Brazil) 68.70 1.64% 36.43% 79 down down up
ILF (Latin America 40) 44.69 1.22% 13.10% 83 down down up
ISI (S&P 1500) 49.67 1.33% 30.05% 100 down down up
Europe Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EWG (MSCI Germany) 21.02 1.45% 441.80% 73 down down up
EWQ (MSCI France) 24.86 1.72% 28.54% 95 down down up
EWU (United Kingdom) 15.93 2.71% -28.97% 85 down down up
IEV (S&P Europe 350) 37.77 1.62% -12.92% 82 down down up
RSX (Russia) 32.74 2.06% 4.86% 100 up up up
VGK (Vanguard Europe) 47.30 1.55% -15.07% 92 down down up
Asian-Pacific Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EWA (MSCI Australia) 21.77 0.69% 34.11% 82 down down up
EWH (MSCI Hong Kong) 15.20 1.20% 154.92% 90 up down up
EWJ (MSCI Japan) 10.11 1.91% 65.05% 82 down up up
EWM (MSCI Malaysia) 10.63 0.09% -25.37% 56 down down up
EWS (MSCI Singapore) 10.92 -0.18% -14.96% 100 down down up
EWT (MSCI Taiwan) 11.80 -1.99% 9.99% 0 down down up
EWY (MSCI South Korea) 46.68 0.34% 127.20% 90 down down up
FXI (FSTE China) 39.84 0.71% 19.30% 92 down down up
IF (Indonesia Fund) 9.75 0.83% -41.89% 93 down down up
IFN (India Fund) 29.90 1.67% -7.06% 96 down down up
VNM (Vietnam) 25.50 0.79% 118.95% 100 up down down
Emerging Markets Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
EEM (MSCI Emerging Mkts) 39.63 0.81% 51.68% 88 down down up
EWX (Emerging Small Caps) 45.81 -0.22% 118.02% 71 down down up
GAF (Middle East & Africa) 62.24 1.42% 33.50% 83 up up up
GMF (Emerging Asia Pacific) 69.90 -0.44% -50.71% 96 down down up
GML (Emerging Latin America) 74.27 1.18% 51.24% 57 down down up
GUR (Emerging Europe) 45.23 1.80% 54.78% 85 up up up
Alternative Assets
Commodities Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
COW (Livestock) 27.47 1.13% -74.83% 18 down down down
DBA (Agriculture) 25.66 1.54% 215.31% 91 down down up
DBB (Base Metals) 20.36 0.84% 123.75% 82 down down up
DBC (Commodities) 23.74 2.15% 581.90% 94 up down up
GLD (Gold) 109.13 0.72% -22.91% 53 up down up
JJC (Copper) 42.31 -0.05% 42.44% 53 down down up
JJG (Grains) 36.00 2.26% -23.14% 61 down down down
PTM (Platinum) 18.83 1.51% -44.92% 81 up up up
SLV (Silver) 16.35 -0.06% -7.52% 37 down down up
UGA (Gasoline) 35.54 3.94% 24.97% 94 up up up
UNG (Natural Gas) 9.88 0.71% 23.46% 50 down up down
USO (Oil) 37.53 2.21% 30.02% 66 up down up
Forex Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
BZF (Brazilian Real) 25.48 0.55% 150.13% 86 down down up
CEW (Emerging Currency) 21.94 0.32% 1023.20% 85 down down up
CYB (Chinese Yuan) 25.31 -0.04% -30.37% 67 lateral lateral lateral
DBV (G10 Currencies) 23.15 0.04% -71.50% 75 down down up
FXA (Australian Dollar) 88.71 -0.49% 55.06% 98 down down up
FXB (British Pound) 159.29 0.13% -31.21% 74 down down up
FXC (Canadian Dollar) 94.19 0.42% -10.70% 93 down down up
FXE (Euro) 139.38 0.24% -48.24% 81 down down down
FXF (Swiss Franc) 94.34 0.06% -33.47% 71 down down up
FXM (Mexican Peso) 77.88 0.30% -51.66% 84 up up up
FXY (Japanese Yen) 109.79 0.32% -59.74% 42 up down up
ICN (Indian Rupee) 25.35 0.12% 385.49% 59 down up up
UUP (U.S. Dollar) 23.27 -0.34% -29.74% 0 up up down
XRU (Russian Ruble) 32.95 1.51% 431.75% 89 down down up
Bonds Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
AGG (Investment Grade) 104.29 0.12% -16.25% 71 down down up
BWX (Int’l Tsy Bonds) 56.15 0.43% -1.11% 67 down down up
EMB (Emerging Markets Bonds) 100.54 -0.24% 901.62% 6 down down up
HYG (Hi Yld Corp) 86.31 0.30% 78.72% 51 down down up
IEF (7-10 Yr Tsy) 90.24 0.17% -18.25% 93 down down down
JNK (Hi Yld Bonds) 38.67 0.21% -5.49% 69 down down up
MBB (Mortgage Bonds) 107.22 0.15% -38.55% 44 down up up
MUB (Nat’l Muni Bond) 102.89 0.02% 19.93% 69 down up up
SHY (1-3 Yr Tsy) 83.51 0.01% -9.41% 75 up down down
TIP (Tsy Inflation Protect) 105.43 0.18% 3.48% 80 up up up
TLT (20 Yr+ Tsy) 91.41 0.29% -4.23% 90 down down down
WIP (Int’l Inflation Protect) 55.25 +0.14% 188.14% 56 down down up
Real Estate Price %Chg Vol% PMI ST MT LT
FIO (Industrial Office) 22.86 0.26% -95.91% 100 down down up
ICF (Cohen & Steers) 51.12 1.45% 103.01% 85 up up up
ITB (Home Construction) 13.09 5.34% 79.65% 96 up up up
IYR (DJ US Real Estate) 44.95 1.65% 28.48% 83 up up up
REM (Mortgage Reits) 14.76 1.03% 103.06% 88 up down up
REZ (Residential Index) 30.09 1.91% 119.37% 54 up up up
RTL (Retail Index) 20.67 2.06% 300.60% 52 down up up
XHB (Homebuilders) 15.85 4.82% 116.46% 84 up up up
Click to enlarge

*PMI measures strength of % daily trading range on scale of 0 to 100

**ST = Short-Term Trend; MT = Intermediate Trend; LT = Long-Term or Primary Trend

***Vol% measures % change in daily volume vs. average daily volume
Market Momentum Diary: 02-02-2010

% Stocks > Mov Avg 20-Day MA 50-Day MA 200-Day MA
Today 35.39% 53.63% 79.44%
Yesterday 27.93% 48.65% 78.49%
Last Week 30.78% 52.70% 80.31%
Last Month 82.29% 82.24% 86.65%
Daily Market Stats NYSE NASDAQ
Advancers 2325 1468
Decliners 746 1217
A/D Ratio 3.12 1.21
Advancing Shares 4073942300 1797864500
Declining Shares 818024200 657533800
A/D Shares Ratio 4.98 2.73
Vol % Chg 14% 12%
Vol % Chg vs. Avg 1% 5%
52 Week New Highs 123 27
52 Week New Lows 4 2
% Stocks Uptrend ST MT LT
Hillbent 3000 31.49% 47.95% 75.86%
Click to enlarge

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