We’ve seen the S&P 500 go up in a strong linear fashion since mid July. A bit extended perhaps? Here’s the 3 month chart:
We’ve seen some fairly low values in VIX over the past few months as Here’s the 2 month chart for the VIX:
Incredible to see a few days under $11. It’s been down at $11 before (even as low as $10) as seen in this 3-year chart:
What’s interesting is the behavior of the S&P 500 relative to the VIX. Here is a chart showing the two:
An obvious pattern shown clearly in the chart above is that the S&P 500 is climbing well when VIX is falling. This is usually over a 2-3 month period:
· May-June 2004
· mid August-early October 2004
· late October-Christmas 2004
· mid April-late July 2005
· mid October-Christmas 2005
· July-current 2006
If the current trend (upward S&P 500 and downward VIX) continues, then this would be a significantly larger and longer decline period of the VIX (going into 4 months). We’re currently just past the 3 month mark.
Looking at the 3rd chart above, $10 seems to be a fairly firm floor, although it seems like VIX doesn’t like staying down there. There’s almost a propensity for the VIX to bounce off $10-$11 and within a month reach $14-$15.
Bottom line: This looks like a good time to buy VIX call options. If the S&P futures look weak Wednesday morning, a quick entry may be in order … I started off this piece with the question if this rally may be a bit extended. Patient watchers may want to “wait and see” in the hopes of entering when VIX is closer to $11.
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