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We’ve seen the S&P 500 go up in a strong linear fashion since mid July. A bit extended perhaps? Here’s the 3 month chart:

We’ve seen some fairly low values in VIX over the past few months as Here’s the 2 month chart for the VIX:

Incredible to see a few days under $11. It’s been down at $11 before (even as low as $10) as seen in this 3-year chart:

What’s interesting is the behavior of the S&P 500 relative to the VIX. Here is a chart showing the two:

An obvious pattern shown clearly in the chart above is that the S&P 500 is climbing well when VIX is falling. This is usually over a 2-3 month period:

· May-June 2004

· mid August-early October 2004

· late October-Christmas 2004

· mid April-late July 2005

· mid October-Christmas 2005

· July-current 2006

If the current trend (upward S&P 500 and downward VIX) continues, then this would be a significantly larger and longer decline period of the VIX (going into 4 months). We’re currently just past the 3 month mark.

Looking at the 3rd chart above, $10 seems to be a fairly firm floor, although it seems like VIX doesn’t like staying down there. There’s almost a propensity for the VIX to bounce off $10-$11 and within a month reach $14-$15.

Bottom line: This looks like a good time to buy VIX call options. If the S&P futures look weak Wednesday morning, a quick entry may be in order … I started off this piece with the question if this rally may be a bit extended. Patient watchers may want to “wait and see” in the hopes of entering when VIX is closer to $11.

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