Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday December 2.
In a bull market for stocks, there are 5 Dow stocks that have risen only in single digits, and a couple have had losses. IBM (IBM) is down 7%, Caterpillar (CAT) declined 6%. AT&T (T) gained only 3%, Exxon (XOM) is up a mere 7% and Cisco (CSCO) has risen just 8%.
IBM and Caterpillar are too dangerous to buy, particularly during tax loss season and at a time when money managers are buying winning stocks and dumping losers. "The Dreamforce Conference was a celebration of everything IBM is not," said Cramer. IBM lacks cloud exposure and is spending money buying back shares rather than on research and development or acquisitions. IBM has no growth, and revenue has been flat for 4 years. The only thing IBM has going for it is that Warren Buffett owns a stake in the company.
Caterpillar has some of the best equipment in the world, but it is mismanaged. It made acquisitions that were too costly and has excessive inventory in all the wrong markets. Caterpillar's competitors are doing fine. Cramer thinks the CEO has to go.
AT&T has strong cash flow, but is not growing quickly enough. Its 5% dividend is tempting, but there are better stocks to buy with that yield. AT&T needs to buy a cable company or expand internationally. Cramer thinks management might do the right thing; "I see change coming."
Exxon (XOM) is the only Dow laggard worth buying and has risen aggressively in the last month. Buffett is buying more stock, and XOM has been shrinking its share count. The latest quarter showed that exploration and production were going strong. Cramer thinks Exxon will be "huge" in 2014.
Cisco reported the worst quarter in the Dow. Its restructuring plans are not working. Management should have pre-announced its horrible results. The competition is eating Cisco's lunch. Cramer had a message for the CEO; "Hey, hey, ho, ho John Chambers Has Got To Go," said Cramer.
Cramer took some calls:
Rite Aid (RAD) has made a comeback and is selling fantastic merchandise. Cramer would buy it on a pullback.
Is Amazon (AMZN) worth $400? Could it be worth buying even though it is up 56% for the year? Cramer says the answer to the first question is "no," and the answer to the second question is "yes." Even if the stock isn't really worth as much as some bullish analysts think, the company could still go higher on momentum and fundamentals. Fear of a stock bubble and determination to look for bargains are keeping many people out of good stocks. Some stocks, like Amazon, seem too expensive, but they are more likely to run higher than dip dramatically lower. Cramer isn't necessarily telling viewers to buy Amazon, but he can understand why people do buy the stock.
Cramer took some calls:
Groupon (GRPN) was downgraded based on valuation, but Cramer thinks Groupon could make a comeback. The stock has risen significantly, and can return to its highs.
Apple (AAPL) is a buy because it will do well over the holidays. Cramer's charitable trust bought some Apple on Monday.
Cramer discussed 6 recent IPOs that still may be worth buying. Antero (AR) rose 18% on its first day of trading and is only 50 cents above its opening price currently. While natural gas plays might seem risky, AR is growing production aggressively, with a 128% increase. It has significant assets in the Utica shale and it is spinning off its midsream business.
Frank's (FI) provides pipe and tubing for oil service companies. It rose 19.8% on its first day of trading and got slammed over weakness in its U.S. onshore business, but its deep water tubing segment was on fire. A key order also got pushed out to 2014, but that means it may see an upside next year. Cramer thinks FI is vulnerable to sell-offs in the short-term, and it might be a buy on a dip.
Pinnacle Foods (PF) rose 11% on its IPO and has given a 23% gain in the after market. Cramer recommended prior to the IPO that viewers get in on the IPO and hold the stock. Pinnacle has winning brands and an excellent business model.
Volaris (VLRS) is a Mexican airline that jumped 16% on its IPO and has hardly moved since. VLRS is benefiting from consolidation in the industry and it is increasing its fleet.
Navigator (NVGS) specializes in liquified petroleum gases, and it rose 5.3% on its IPO two weeks ago and has gained an additional 5% since. The company has been consistently profitable, but it might get hammered in the short term.
Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) rose 30.5% on its IPO and has rallied 37.6% since. It is the third largest cruise ship company, but it has the strongest growth in the business, is expanding its fleet and has pricing power. The stock trades at a multiple of 19 with a 40% growth rate. The company announced a secondary, and Cramer thinks NCLH offers the best opportunity in the group.
One of the biggest spinoff stories of 2013 was of Zoetis (ZTS), producer of vaccines and drugs for livestock and pets from Pfizer (PFE). The stock rallied 19% on its IPO, but it hasn't done much since then. Earnings were in-line, revenues were strong and management raised guidance. ZTS trades at a multiple of 19 with a 15.5% long-term growth rate. There is huge potential in the animal healthcare space. The rising middle class in emerging markets is creating a greater demand for household pets. ZTS has a treatment that eliminates the awkward headgear placed on the heads of dogs with itching problems. Cramer thinks Zoetis is "a great story."
3M (MMM) dropped on a downgrade, and Cramer thinks other high-flyers, such as Facebook (FB), Disney (DIS) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) could be similarly vulnerable. Internet stocks Groupon, Yelp (YELP) and LinkedIn (LNKD) also fell. Financials seem to be making a well-needed comeback with interest rates going up; Goldman Sachs (GS) hit a 52 week high even on a down day. Transports indicate a strong holiday season with FedEx (FDX) holding up well and the Baltic Dry Freight Index strong. Many are spooked by the decline in gold, and Cramer would expect more downgrades for internet stocks. However, he likes Groupon.
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