The great U.S. auto recovery continues, and it's making shareholders in Ford (F) a nice return on their investment.
October 15th was the last time that I took a minute to pen an article about Ford. I've been bullish on Ford throughout 2013, and last month wrote an article pleading that investors do not let the government shutdown scare them out of taking a long position in Ford.
I've also explored that Ford could potentially have the number one sedan in the U.S. for 2014, judging by the growing metrics that the Fusion continues to post to wrap up 2013.
Ford has traded up about 47.9% in the last year alone and is up exponentially since its fall to the $2 level during the auto crisis.
I had predicted a good month for Ford in November:
Regardless of whether or not October sales are affected, the sales that would have occurred in October will occur whenever the government reconvenes; November at the very latest. So, the sales that were likely to occur in October will be offset by the sales in November, making it a wash and leaving little to no effect on 2013 sales as a whole.
Additionally, two of the other reasons that I'm bullish on Ford are the turning around of the overseas auto economy and the chance for 2014's metrics, as a year, to really turn some retail heads. Don't be deterred by Ford pressing its highs, there's still a lot of room to grow for the once-struggling automaker.
This morning, Ford released news that it had its best November since 2004, with gains across the board:
- Ford Motor Company U.S. sales increase 7 percent overall in November; retail sales up 9 percent for best November since 2004
- Passenger cars led by Fusion sales increase of 51 percent and Fiesta sales increase of 26 percent, both setting records for November
- F-Series tops 60,000 sales for the seventh straight month
- All-new Lincoln MKZ sales increase 114 percent, Lincoln up 17 percent
- Ford announces 2014 first quarter North American production plan of 770,000 vehicles
In addition to that, it looks like Fusion could really have the momentum to take on the Camry in 2014:
Fusion sales of 22,839 vehicles for the month are up 51 percent year over year, for the car's best-ever November sales performance. Fusion sales continue to expand fastest in the western U.S., where retail sales are up 79 percent including a 101 percent increase in California. Fiesta also had its best-ever November sales performance with 4,642 vehicles sold.
And, I'm starting to think the Fusion is the right car to dethrone the Camry.
As I've stated in the past, I'm not a car guy - and as I've noted in past articles, I was never a Ford guy. However, that's one nice looking machine that Ford has manufactured for 2013/14. For the first time in years, Ford's line of vehicles look like they're ready to compete - as opposed to the early 2000's, where they looked like they were rolling off the assembly line already ready for the dung heap.
Additionally, you have to remember the dividends are likely to come up, as well. I continue to argue that buying into Ford now catches the dividends on an upswing, as Ford has consistently raised or lowered their offering in conjunction with how the business is performing. Ford is likely to be paying well above $0.10 dividends a year or two from now.
Here's Ford's dividend history:
Ford will likely break into the $25 region, at least, during 2014 - barring any kind of unseen macro-market or sector-wide pullback. Although risk always exists with companies that have a product that can be affected by the global economy, I remain bullish.
With a dividend that's likely to grow, the coming turnaround of the overseas auto market, and a chance for 2014's metrics to be head turners to retail investors, I remain extremely bullish on Ford closing out 2013.
Best of luck to all investors.