ModernGraham Valuation Of National Presto Industries

| About: National Presto (NPK)

Here is a look at how National Presto Industries, Inc. (NYSE:NPK) fares in ModernGraham's opinion, based on an updated and modernized version of Benjamin Graham's requirements of defensive and enterprising investors from The Intelligent Investor:

Defensive and Enterprising Investor Tests (What is the significance of these tests, and what is PEmg ratio?):

Defensive Investor - must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise - market capitalization of at least $2 billion - FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition - current ratio greater than 2 - PASS
  3. Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  4. Dividend Record - has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  5. Earnings Growth - earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3-year averages at beginning and end of period - PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio - PEmg is less than 20 - PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets - PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - PASS

Enterprising Investor - must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 - current ratio greater than 1.5 - PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 - Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 - PASS
  3. Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - PASS
  4. Dividend Record - currently pays a dividend - PASS
  5. Earnings growth - EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - FAIL

Valuation Summary (Explanation of the ModernGraham Valuation Model)

Key Data:

MG Value $50.96
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $93.72
Value Based on 0% Growth $54.94
Market-implied growth rate 1.70%
NCAV $29.65
PEmg 11.89
Current Ratio 5.01
PB Ratio 1.81

Balance Sheet - 9/30/2013

Current Assets $284,800,000
Current Liabilities $56,900,000
Total Debt $0
Total Assets $379,400,000
Intangible Assets $17,200,000
Total Liabilities $64,200,000
Outstanding Shares 7,440,000

Earnings Per Share - Diluted

2013 (estimate) $5.16
2012 $5.64
2011 $6.98
2010 $9.26
2009 $9.13
2008 $6.45
2007 $5.65
2006 $4.09
2005 $2.40
2004 $2.26
2003 $2.27
2002 $1.27

Earnings Per Share - Modern Graham (Calculating EPSmg)

2013 (estimate) $6.46
2012 $7.24
2011 $7.86
2010 $7.84
2009 $6.60
2008 $4.95


National Presto Industries is one of my personal favorite companies. The balance sheet is amazingly strong, with a current ratio of 5.01 and no long-term debt. The company passes all of the requirements of the Defensive Investor, with the exception of the market cap is lower than the Defensive Investor would prefer. The company also passes all of the requirements of the Enterprising Investor, except the earnings growth over the last five years has slowed, giving a slight pause to Enterprising Investors. However, as it stands now the company remains suitable to both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor, and they should feel comfortable continuing with further research of the company. From a valuation standpoint, National Presto Industries appears overvalued at this time based on the ModernGraham valuation model. The market is implying a growth rate of only 1.7%, but the historical earnings growth does not quite support that. While earnings are well above where they were ten years ago, it would be nice if the company could return to the levels of 2009-10. As a result, Defensive Investors and Enterprising Investors should keep a close eye on National Presto Industries to see if the price comes down to a more attractive point or if the earnings rise to improve the valuation.

Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in National Presto Industries at the time of publication and had no intention of entering into a position within the next 72 hours.