Stephen Simpson, CFA
Long only, growth at reasonable price, value, research analyst

My Fears About Titan Machinery Seem To Be Coming True

Titan Machinery (NASDAQ:TITN) is showing why investors do well to be cautious about debt-fueled roll-up stories, particularly in cyclical markets where many of the major demand factors are out of anybody's control. As cash receipts for farmers are looking shakier and farmland values are starting to retreat, the outlook for ag equipment demand in 2014 is getting shakier. Unfortunately, Titan operates a model that requires merchandise to keep moving, as interest expense is nearly 10% of gross profits.

With another disappointment comes another downward revision and, I would assume, another round of price target cuts on the sell-side. While Titan had a lot of enthusiastic cheerleaders on the sell-side making "things aren't so bad" and "things will get...

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