Seeking Alpha
Long/short equity, dividend investing, ETF investing
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

Iran announced this week that it is enriching uranium to a higher level. This will put the country on course to build a nuclear bomb, observers say. President Obama was concerned enough to say Iran will soon face punishing sanctions.

David Rosenberg, chief economist & strategist for Gluskin Sheff now wonders if Iran will be the next shoe to drop. “While Greece and [other countries at risk of default] have been getting all the press, don’t take your eye off the prospect of a strike against Iran, either by Israel or Obama. Netanhyahu sounded very tough in a speech in Europe on Tuesday….”

Punters might be tempted to take a flyer on the probability of an air strike against Iran. One way to do it is to buy some Iran contracts on the Intrade.com prediction market. The one predicting an air strike before June 30 is trading around 10 points right now. If an air strike were to occur according to the contract’s parameters, it should zoom to 100, for a tenfold gain.

The trouble is that the Iran contracts on Intrade’s prediction market are hardly traded. It’s difficult to take a position of any size. Oh well, that leaves oil and gold for the punter, as Rosenberg notes.

Source: Will Iran Be the Next Shoe to Drop?