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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD)

Raymond James Systems, Semiconductors, Software & Supply Chain Conference

December 10, 2013 9:40 AM ET

Executives

John Byrne – SVP and Chief Sales Officer

Analysts

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

Okay, well, thank you everybody for coming. We have a fireside chat with John Byrne. He is the Senior VP and Chief Sales Officer at AMD. He has been with the company for the past six years and we’ll keep it snappy and start-off with John. Different AMD over the past couple years since Rory has come on board. Can you briefly tell us what the new strategy is relative to the more – the older Jerry Sanders kind of PC strategy, let’s try to beat up on Intel.

John Byrne

You got it. First of all, good morning everyone. It’s a pleasure to me and thank you for inviting me here today. Yes, I’ve been with AMD for six years. I’ve been the Chief Sales Officer for AMD since August of last year and when Rory came on as a new leader, we quickly identified that 95% of our business was predominantly based in the PC market and everyone realized at a time that the PC market was a relatively flat to a potentially declining market. And we set around a three-step approach to our organization.

Step one was a reset and restructure and ultimately what we are trying to do is we are trying to leverage our world-class technology, our world-class IP technology where we do very well in system architecture, system design, world-class IP, graphics technology or display technology and really looking at where could we take this portfolio and attack growth markets.

And we set out a vision which is, as we exit 2015, is that over 50% of our revenues will be based on the growth markets. So the recent restructure is done as an organization. One of our goals is to drive our OpEx down from close to $600 million per quarter, bringing it down to the $450 million per quarter and we’ve then moved into the acceleration phase and this is actually, okay, where we do we attack.

So clearly we are going to continue to play in the PC market and I am sure Hans, you are going to ask me about the PC market in a moment.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

Yes, I will.

John Byrne

But it’s still a huge market; it’s still a $300 million plus unit market. So we are going to play in that space. But we are going to attack ultra low power in the client market surely we can see a huge transformation in that space.

We’re going to continue to attack professional graphics, some $1 billion, $1.2 billion market which actually leverages perfectly into if you look at our Technology and our Graphics business.

We are going to attack the embedded space. The embedded space is a $7 billion market. We are going to attack the Dense Server market and also we are going to leverage our IP and attack the Semi-Custom business. And then the – sort of the third step is actually transforming our business into not thinking like a PC only company and leveraging all of that IP.

I think what people are looking for is are we been consistent to the strategy and I think you saw in our Q3 results where we returned to profitability and actually one of our goals was to have 20% of our business in non-PC as we exit the 2013. Actually, if you look at our Q3 business and we have obviously reported as 30% of our business was in non-PC and actually in growth markets and that’s where we are as a business today.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

Great run down, John. We were talking here before you came about the PlayStation 4 is basically sold out. One of our colleagues can’t get one. We get a lot of questions from clients.

How was it possible that AMD landed both Sony and Microsoft, probably about two years ago when a lot of people on the street believed that you guys were going to go out of business, how did you guys do that and I am clearly confident that Intel probably went after that business as well. How did you win that?

John Byrne

It’s interesting, you can always tell that the coolness of a new product with how many new friends you could suddenly have approaching you on Facebook, LinkedIn and how suddenly you are one of the best [uncle] [ph]. We are delighted clearly to have won both of those opportunities.

That is a phenomenal feat of engineering; a significant feat of achievement by our customers, by our engineering team, by our operations team, bringing those products seamlessly to market.

Now the question is why, why did we win it? Ultimately, I mentioned and the [lead off] [ph] is because of based on our IP. We have world-class x86 and we have world-class graphics capability.

If you look at both of those products that are using A8 Jaguar cores, they are using a Radeon graphics and providing a superior visual experience and we are delighted they chose us.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

If we can stay on that topic just for a moment, how big of an opportunity could this be, these game consoles can – the cycles are four, five, maybe six years, maybe more than that?

John Byrne

Well, if you look at the [inaudible] Hans, the cycle of these products traditionally is five to seven years. And you look at the peak years or predominantly year number – year number three.

So how could it be, if you look again at [inaudible] consoles predominantly sell 40 million units per year. We have said over the lifecycle of the products their ASP on those products are going to be 60 to 100 bucks.

But the exciting thing is what it’s done is, it’s opened up a world of new opportunity for us. As we mentioned 50% of our business is going to be in those five of the [inaudible] that we are trying to achieve as we exit 2015. But suddenly we have built a pipeline of Semi-Custom opportunities.

So it’s not based on just on those two opportunities and our pipeline or plan is in 2014 is to, all things going well, is to announce two more design [wins] [ph] between $250 million to $500 million of revenue beginning in 2015. But we have a very nice pipeline.

I also want to congratulate our engineering team that were designing our technology our ability to reuse the IP, repeatable methodology in terms of building these products allow us to bring significantly more semi-custom opportunities.

I should also add it’s not only for the console business. We are, if you look at our pipeline, we are looking at potential opportunities at existing clients. We are looking other gaming opportunities. We are looking at server.

And I tell you even our classic client customers are looking for differentiation in the platforms that they are bringing to market. So it’s opening up a significant opportunity for us.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

Fantastic. Now going to that PC side of the market, I think Rory surprised some investors when he said - the recent conference call that PC growth next year would be down 10%. I think Intel still in that camp of flat, maybe slightly down, what’s driving that view and how does that impact your PC business if it’s going to be down that much?

John Byrne

Essentially, when I mentioned the PC market in my opening I noticed a couple of people smiling – the gentlemen at the back was smiling broadly. I probably was here in December of last year Hans, and I sat in this chair right and I said look the market is – 2013 is going to be down 10%; I think you’d probably laughed at that but and actually when I look at the professional analysts if you look at September 2012 and we were actually projecting that the PC market in 2013 was going to be up 6.5%.

I know you look in December and I said actually 2013 is going to be up 1% and then in January this is going to be down 1% and then in March this is going to be down 3% and here we are down minus 10%.

So, could the market be down 7% to 10%? Yes, it could, but I think that devil is always in the details. So let’s break it down. The PC market has gone traditionally from a 90 million unit per quarter give or take to 80 million units per quarter. And then you then look, you got to separate it consumer and commercial. Commercial has been relatively robust.

Commercial market has been declining low single-digits, but if you look at consumer, the consumer market is actually - the consumer PC has been declining double-digit percentage in 2013.

Now when I fast-forward to 2014, I see desktop remaining again fairly robust. The desktop market last year was in the region of – this year it will be 135 million, 136 million. Could it be 127 million to 130 million next year? Yes.

Those all in one form factors are taking hold. The desktop channel business, so normally if you’ll talk about the desktop channel business Hans, but the non-PC guys i.e. excluding HP, Dell, Lenovo and such, that market is 70 million to 75 million units per year in the desktop market. And I see that being fairly constant.

I think commercial notebook will be slightly decline single-digit next year. So, we then look at the challenges truly in consumer notebooks and there is no doubt that we’ve seen a cannibalization of tablet.

Tablet this year will be some 200 million, by 2014, the speculation is going to be 270 million. Still less in the classic desktop and notebook, [inaudible] close to [marching] [ph].

And so actually we see the market and I think 2014, we have to show the consumer why they want to buy a classic notebook, tablet two-in-one. We have to really continue to talk about gesture. We have to talk about touch. We have to talk about facial recognition. We have to bring the touch panel’s pricing down into the marketplace and bring those new form factors into the sweet spot of the consumer notebook market, and the sweet spot for the analyst following this the market is 399 to 499.

So the second part of your question Hans, is okay, where do we – where does AMD play? It’s still a huge market. It’s still 300 million units, 285 million to 300 million units. It’s still a significant market.

So if I then break it down in consumer, we will continue to play in consumer. We have over 20% globally market share in the consumer space. You then – actually then double-click on that, you see that a significant percentage of that is in the entry-level consumer market.

We have done very well with our products historically in Brazos. We have done very well with the Temash and Kabini products. Our competitor has been very vocal. They want to come and take that share from us. That’s okay.

Our plan is obviously we are going to continue to attack and we are going to be competitive in the entry-level of the market. We feel our portfolio – we feel Kabini is a very strong product. We are delighted with the progress.

The follow-on products, our Beema platforms and our Mullins product which is going to be available at two watts of power are targeting the tablet and the two-in-one space in 2014 is right on track.

But we are – so what people don’t talk about is, we are also – we are not just going to sit back and wait to attack. We are also going to attack the market. We are going to drive our APU messaging into the marketplace.

Our A8 and our A10 are upper-end of our processors is gaining traction in the marketplace. We’ve seen a mix shift over the past three quarters. Anyone who wants to find out, okay, why are people buying these products? If anyone is watching, people in North America here was watching QBC on Black Friday there was a wonderful Dell PC and they were showing you all of these features and benefits that I mentioned. They showed facial recognition. They showed gesture. They showed touch. They showed Miracast and those PCs and a thirty minute slot was phenomenal, phenomenal they showed – and I am talking tens of thousands of PCs with an A8 Quad Core product.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

What was the price point?

John Byrne

549 and above. So people are – our APU message beginning to resonate, using the quad core message, using the Radeon graphics, using our Mantle message, APU is beginning to resonate. So we’ll continue to play in the consumer market.

Now let’s talk about commercial. Commercial market, we believe is going to be down single-digit in 2014. We are attacking the commercial space. I don’t know if any of you know this. But actually in India there was probably the largest commercial tender issued this year. It was for 1.5 million units in Q2, which is I feel a significant tender.

AMD historically has not played very well in the commercial space. Our value prop really didn’t resonate in the space. But as we are seeing the consumerization of PCs we are seeing real world usage in the commercial platforms. We won that 1.5 million unit tender with HP.

At the same time, if you look at how the decisions that the commercial – if you look at the enterprise, education, the way that the regional governments are looking at those platform zones, they were looking at all benchmarks. They were looking at system benchmark. Frankly, who cares line number 35,000, in Excel spreadsheet, who cares how quickly it opens up. You want to have real world benchmarks.

If you look at future markets, it’s an industry standard benchmark using a PCMark, 3DMark, BaseMark with open CL, AMD does very, very well. So, that win has opened the eyes up to our biggest customers. If I tell you the commercial PC market, Dell, HP and Lenovo own 77% of that market. And our platforms in 2014 are 3x what they were in 2013.

I then talk about the desktop market and I mentioned the desktop market is 70 million to 75 million units. AMD historically has done very well in the DIY and the desktop marketplace. Our APU message is really beginning to resonate in that space. And I tell you in China, our market share in that market is over 40%.

So we have actually gained 2.5 points of share over the past two quarters in the desktop market. We’ll continue to lean heavily into our APU. We are selling up the stack. We are making our channels money and we’ll continue to play in the space in the market.

I can also tell you Kabini which has done very well in the consumer market, Kabini will be coming to the desktop component market and a socket in the first half of 2014. That’s the strategy.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

Speaking of Kabini, so these are some of these products that will go, some of the ultrabooks and maybe some higher end tablets, Intel has a very aggressive strategy with their Bay Trail and specifically in tablets, they put out a number in their Investor Meeting recently of 40 million tablets.

What is Intel’s Bay Trail doing in the market? Is it being disruptive? Is it being successful? Are you fighting back? How is that playing out with Bay Trail?

John Byrne

It’s a very fair question. There is no doubt that they’re being aggressive in the marketplace. They were very vocal in the analyst meet they had only a couple of weeks ago.

I saw the 40 million commentary. For us, Kabini was first to market. Kabini came to market before Bay Trail. We are very public. We had over a 100 platforms on Kabini and Temash. Why? Why do we have so many platforms?

Well, first we are first to market, the second we have superior graphics. All of the features and benefits that I talk about, the way that you are using your PCs today require significant graphics horse power, and we won in this space. At the same time, we actually have better battery life depending on the workloads we have better battery life versus the competition.

Now, do we have a battle on x86? Yes, we do, but we believe that the value props and graphics that I said are resonating. And we have platforms and we have two-in-one platforms. We have tablet platforms. Actually I can tell you that in two-in-one platforms, the HP platform and the Toshiba [HDR] [ph] two-in-ones are selling relatively well.

For me on two-in-ones we got to be very watchful, we’ve got to drive the price point down into the mainstream in the consumer and then we got to articulate the value propositions for the consumer before that space really takes off to be a significant percentage of the marketplace.

Question-and-Answer Session

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

Okay, so, any questions in the audience? So let’s continue, ARM. It’s been about a year-and-a-half, maybe two years you guys have articulated – has it been a year-and-a-half?

John Byrne

Yes.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

So you have an ARM strategy, it’s a more suited and focused on the datacenter multi-core. What is the motivation to do that? How does that play out with your x86 strategy? And within the ARM world, there are other competitors. What’s your value proposition?

John Byrne

So, let’s talk about ARM first of all in the Dense Server space. As I mentioned, the Dense Server space is one of our five pillars that we are targeting. If you look at, it really depends on your workloads.

If you are looking at a classic server enterprise workloads, the ones that you are running at Raymond James, Hans, they are going to predominantly stay on single [track] [ph] computing and looking at x86.

The first people who are going to be targeting an ARM workloads are all those what I call the witches and Shamans, They will be the Facebooks, the Yahoos, the Googles. Right now, you are looking at your smartphones and you are looking [E*trade] [ph] – and we were looking at Facebook and we’ll be looking at LinkedIn and that’s workload, and you are looking for the efficiency on those compute capability.

What are those datacenters looking for? They are looking for lower cost. They are looking for more compute. They want to use less space. They want more bandwidth and ultimately they want to bring the OpEx down.

Their OpEx on these datacenters is actually been increasing at 33% CAGR for the past 10 years. Bringing those ARM products to market actually allows us to address all of those question of the datacenters.

The question is, okay, can AMD win? There is going to be possibly a nine Arm/server predators. We believe we can. It’s not a mode of just bringing the server piece of silicon to the marketplace and saying okay, we are going to win. AMD has over 10 to 15 years of server experience.

We have sold over multi-millions of server products. What does that require? It’s not just hardware. You got to have the software capability. You have to bring the platforms to market. You have to have the compilers. You have to have the benchmarks, you have to have [AFE] [ph] support. All of that takes years of experience and it’s something that AMD has. All of these new players and I respect my competition greatly. They are going to have silicon to the marketplace, no doubt. But like in any new market that opens up, I think as time moves along the bag will get bigger and we believe that we can actually win and we can be the leader in Arm 64 bit products.

I can tell you that our ARM 64-bit for the server market is right on track. We will be sampling in Q1. And then ultimately why us will win? Everyone who is actually going to bring an ARM 64-bit product to the marketplace is going to require some form of fabric, something that links all of these low power cores together.

We acquired SeaMicro some 18 months ago for $300 million because of that fabric. If you look at the fabric that we have with SeaMicro we already have over 80 customers active today.

But the biggest one and actually they were very public about it was Verizon. So we are in seven of Verizon’s datacenters using our SeaMicro product today and that’s why we believe we can win in this space.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

How about sizing the market? If you talk to Intel, they’ll say it’s very, very small, it’s microservers. I think they’ve moved up from like low single-digits to mid single-digits. Now I think they acknowledge perhaps reluctantly that it’s maybe 10% of the market in 50 years, how big is the market opportunity for ARM based Dense-Servers?

John Byrne

Well Hans, how long have you been tracking the market in general?

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

A generation.

John Byrne

A generation, so think if it as, if I was here 15 years ago and I was going to tell you that x86 is going to dominate the server marketplace and it was going to take all the share from Spark, you’d ultimately said no way. I don’t see it happening, but it took it, why, what did it took it? Because small, low cost, low power volume, well, ultimately in compute space will always be big. Be it micros, be it minis, be it workstation, be it mainframes and we believe that over time based on the workloads that people are actually determining, will drive to an ARM strategy.

Now it will take time. There is no question. 2014 is really about marketing, it’s about design wins, it’s about announcing where the market is going. Our passionate belief is that space by 2017, Hans will be in the region of 20% of the server market.

I think the server market today is in region of 10 million units. It’s an $11 billion market. You can apply the relevant growth rates, so that’s we see the market. And again we believe that it’s a market that we can win.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

Graphics, it looks like, you have a big push into the workstation market, you have very modest market share, what are you guys doing there? What’s the opportunity in terms of TAM or dollars?

John Byrne

Well, I will be so bold to take a moment to talk about our graphics products. So, actually, in October we launched the new range of graphics products. So they’re called R9 and then R7 products. Actually, the internal code name was called Hawaii and some lucky people were selected to go to Hawaii and that’s where we launched the product.

We can tell you that when we actually streamed our launch, we had over 30,000 live bloggers watching the launch of this product. We had over 1.5 billion impressions and anyone who wants to see the success of those products just sign on to Newegg, Tiger, Amazon, Ebay or if want to look in China go to 360Buy and see how well those products are actually selling. We are delighted with those products.

Very, very excited, wonderful technology leaning into our Mantle technology, taking advantage of the similar graphic experience you can enjoy on your console, taking advantage of true audio and momentum on those products will mean that AMD will gain share in the graphics space, of that I have no doubt.

If I look at the notebook, consumer notebook space, we have the designs already locked with Haswell. When those platforms come to the market, obviously we are also already working on the next generation for our own Kaveri products that will be coming to the market next year as well as Broadwell and we believe that we will take graphics market share. We are currently 35%. We believe we’ll be over half the market in the coming quarters.

Now if you then look at the professional graphics market, the professional graphics market is in the region as I mentioned in the beginning Hans of $1 billion to $1.2 billion, significant gross margin.

If you look at our competitor, they are doing in the region of $250 million to $300 million per quarter. Gross margins above their average. We are attacking professional graphics. The commentary on AMD in the past has been an even ATI before AMD is great hardware but where is the software support? So, we have leading hardware on our FirePro graphics.

I am pleased to share that we have made significant investments on our ISP certifications both at the global level as well as the regional level, I can tell you from a sales perspective with my own team, Hans, we are growing our coverage by 50% to capture the downstream market and I am pleased to say that our share now in that space is 19%. And I am also pleased to actually say that up till Q3 we had five consecutive quarters of growth in that space. And that’s a market we are absolutely targeting. Again it’s one of our five pillars as we progress in 2014, 2015, 2016.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

Excellent. Devinder said recently that some of the business would have that gone to TSMC perhaps can go to GlobalFoundries. Can you discuss the foundry strategy - to degree that you can, because I’m sure this situation is a little fluid, the strategy going forward with GlobalFoundries, because there is still a significant amount of dollars that you have to pay for certain wafers and so, kind of like a big subject but I’ll kind of let you…

John Byrne

Well, maybe I can break it down into two sections. So, [inaudible] to a lot of people has been on WSA agreement. So, as you know we agreed to take – spend $1.15 billion with GlobalFoundries in 2013. Year-to-date, we have taken $750 million. We have $400 million to actually – to take in Q4 2013 and we are on track to take that $400 million.

If you remember the take or pay in 2012, we didn’t take all of the products and we had some form of penalty. We have $200 million to pay in Q1 2014 and we are also on track to make that payment of $200 million in Q1 2014.

In terms of our 2014 agreement, as you know the contract, the agreements runs until the end of Q1 2014, we are in the middle of the negotiation right now and as and when we can articulate the closure on that, we will do so accordingly. In terms of foundry with consoles, it’s an interesting question, because a lot of people are really excited about the console business that we have currently.

We don’t comment on our foundry partnerships and what products are coming to market based on the relevant foundry partners that we have. What I can tell you is that, we do have the flexibility on consoles to determine between GF and TSMC.

And there is many decisions that what would make you change foundry partners and that’s something that’s done in conjunction truly with Microsoft and Sony. And as and when we can advice that if we were even contemplating moving to a different partner, we will do so at that relevant time.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

What are the challenges or the degree of challenge, perhaps doing one of these APUs at GlobalFoundries, theoretically is?

John Byrne

Well, in the past, the way you have to look at these Hans, is that, all the products were almost like semi-custom. Every product that we brought was semi-custom. The IP was unique to every product, the methodology was custom to every product and what Mark Papermaster and his engineering team has done is, he has built the IP, so that the IP is consistently re-usable and he is building the methodology, the way they design products and methodology is consistent. So when you look at the PC silicon, it means that, 60% is consistent between IP and methodology, which is a wonderful feat of achievement by Mark and his team.

So, porting across was done at the design stage and that makes it easier than certainly in the past where it would be a completely a re-designable brand new product.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

Any questions from the audience? Okay, going forward, the industry in terms of foundry work is looking to see how TSMC and others go to FinFET technology. I think, TSMC just to pick on them, they have a 20-nanometer non-FinFET solution that some are using a 16-nanometer FinFET solution that’s really 20-nanometer. What’s AMD’s view of that transition? How are you guys going to accomplish it and what are the challenges?

John Byrne

It’s something Hans, I constantly ask this question, is AMD concerned about the technology nodes? And I have yet, in my years of selling products, I have yet to have a customer say, hey, you have great innovation, you have great price points, but because you are not in the right node I am not going to buy a product. Customers don’t buy a node. They care about the innovation that I mentioned, they care about the right price points. We have this year all of our products are now on 28-nanometer and it’s fair to say Hans, that our next step will be in the 20-nanometer and then from there we will get to FinFET. All of this will be articulated at the relevant time.

What I would say is, if you look at something like a Brazos product, Brazos is one of the best selling products that AMD have ever had, still selling today is on 40-nanometer technology. So it can happen.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

Okay, John, anything that I’ve didn’t touch on in terms of product categories or strategy or…

John Byrne

No, the one thing I should maybe just let [inaudible] I mentioned about pillars, we touched on dense, we touched on graphics, and we touched on [inaudible] one; we haven’t spent much time is the embedded market and embedded really is an industrial market.

If you look at the embedded market it’s a $7 billion market. It’s very sticky. And, AMD has played in that space that we predominantly played with legacy graphics products and legacy processor products.

We are designing and developing silicon for the embedded market. And think of the embedded market as casino gaming, industrial controls, even automotive to a lesser extent, broad base. Those are the markets and I can tell you from a sales perspective, we are doubling down our coverage in that space.

I can tell you we are delighted with the pipeline growth that we have. So when we talk about our semi-custom and embedded we are very excited about our embedded business going forward. Now, with the embedded market the design cycles are 12 to 18 months. The revenue year, the peak years in embedded are between years three and five, although the lifecycle tend to go 7 to 8. But I can tell you that I brought a new sales leader. I can tell Lisa Su who runs our business unit has brought on a new business unit leader and that is something you are going to hear us talking more and more and more as the months, quarters, and years progress.

And other than that I want to thank you, Hans, really thank you everyone for your time, and I don’t have any PlayStation 4 or Xbox Ones before you see me [inaudible] later.

Hans Mosesmann – Raymond James

All right, thank you very much.

John Byrne

Thank you, Hans.

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