UPS Fairly Valued After Recent Stock Price Increase

Dec.11.13 | About: United Parcel (UPS)

What is stock analysis? Well, there are some that think it has everything to do with the dividend. There are others that only look at charts. There are others that think analyst estimate misses (notice how this is equivalent to companies' earnings beats) are a way to gauge the trajectory of a stock. And yet there are others that are lost in medieval times. We as investors need to move beyond these individual frameworks and start taking a holistic view. Let's take a look at what we mean as it relates to our analysis with United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS).

At Valuentum, we think a comprehensive analysis of a firm's discounted cash-flow valuation and relative valuation versus industry peers is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy. This process culminates in what we call our Valuentum Buying Index (click here for an in-depth presentation about our methodology), which ranks stocks on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best. Essentially, we're looking for firms that overlap investment methodologies, thereby revealing the greatest interest by investors (we like firms that fall in the center of the diagram below):

If a company is undervalued both on a DCF and on a relative valuation basis it scores high on our scale. United Parcel Service posts a VBI score of 6 on our scale, reflecting our 'fairly valued' DCF assessment of the firm, its neutral relative valuation versus peers, and bullish technicals. We compare United Parcel Service to peers CH Robinson (NASDAQ:CHRW), Uti Worldwide (NASDAQ:UTIW), and FedEx (NYSE:FDX).

Investment Considerations

Investment Highlights

• United Parcel Service earns a ValueCreation™ rating of EXCELLENT, the highest possible mark on our scale. The firm has been generating economic value for shareholders for the past few years, a track record we view very positively. Return on invested capital (excluding goodwill) has averaged 37.7% during the past three years.

• United Parcel Service 'shrinks the globe.' The firm is the world's largest package delivery company, a leader in the US less-than-truckload industry and the premier provider of global supply chain management solutions.

• United Parcel Service has an excellent combination of strong free cash flow generation and low financial leverage. We expect the firm's free cash flow margin to average about 10.5% in coming years. Total debt-to-EBITDA was 1.7 last year, while debt-to-book capitalization stood at 73.4%.

• United Parcel Service boasts an industry-leading adjusted operating margin (small package). At roughly 14%, it is nearly double that of DHL, FedEx, and TNT.

• We're huge fans of UPS' worldwide integrated network, respected brand and consistent cash generation.

Business Quality

Economic Profit Analysis

The best measure of a firm's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital - ROIC - with its weighted average cost of capital - WACC. The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread. United Parcel Service's 3-year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 37.7%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 10.1%. As such, we assign the firm a ValueCreation™ rating of EXCELLENT. In the chart below, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome, in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate.

Cash Flow Analysis

Firms that generate a free cash flow margin (free cash flow divided by total revenue) above 5% are usually considered cash cows. United Parcel Service's free cash flow margin has averaged about 7.9% during the past 3 years. As such, we think the firm's cash flow generation is relatively STRONG. The free cash flow measure shown above is derived by taking cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and differs from enterprise free cash flow (FCFF), which we use in deriving our fair value estimate for the company. For more information on the differences between these two measures, please visit our website at Valuentum.com. At United Parcel Service, cash flow from operations increased about 88% from levels registered two years ago, while capital expenditures expanded about 55% over the same time period.

Valuation Analysis

The estimated fair value of $92 per share represents a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 110.5 times last year's earnings and an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of about 12.8 times last year's EBITDA. Our model reflects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 4% during the next five years, a pace that is lower than the firm's 3-year historical compound annual growth rate of 6.1%. Our model reflects a 5-year projected average operating margin of 12.1%, which is below United Parcel Service's trailing 3-year average. Beyond year 5, we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 2.8% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. For United Parcel Service, we use a 10.1% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows.

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Margin of Safety Analysis

Our discounted cash flow process values each firm on the basis of the present value of all future free cash flows. Although we estimate the firm's fair value at about $92 per share, every company has a range of probable fair values that's created by the uncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future was known with certainty, we wouldn't see much volatility in the markets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values. Our ValueRisk™ rating sets the margin of safety or the fair value range we assign to each stock. In the graph below, we show this probable range of fair values for United Parcel Service. We think the firm is attractive below $69 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above $115 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm, in our opinion.

Future Path of Fair Value

We estimate United Parcel Service's fair value at this point in time to be about $92 per share. As time passes, however, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The chart below compares the firm's current share price with the path of United Parcel Service's expected equity value per share over the next three years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents our best estimate of the value of the firm's shares three years hence. This range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of $117 per share in Year 3 represents our existing fair value per share of $92 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the same way, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range.

Pro Forma Financial Statements

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.