No sense in beating around the bush - unless you believe something is going to prompt a serious upward turn in inflation, and particularly in the price of met coal, Russia's Mechel (MTL) is basically worthless today. It's virtually impossible to run a DCF analysis that suggests a positive fair value unless you're willing to assume much higher met coal prices and a high degree of forbearance on the part of lenders.
But to paraphrase from the classic comedy "Dumb and Dumber," I'm saying there's a chance. The majority of Mechel's debt is borrowed from Russian state banks and they do not appear particularly eager to take a hard line with the company - they don't want...
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